426
FXUS63 KJKL 120530
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH A
THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INCREASED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
MAINLY JUST THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE
T/TD/SKY GRIDS. DID TWEAK THE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT PER RADAR AND
CAMS GUIDANCE - WITH INDICATIONS OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHIFTING
INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE JKL CWA. THESE ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE
HWO, SAFS, AND ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EASTERN KENTUCKY DEALING WITH THE EFFECTS
OF A GRADUALLY NEARING FRONT TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THIS CONTINUES TO BRING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA - REPLETE WITH
TORRENTIAL RAIN AND TRAINING LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH
WATER CONCERNS THAT CARRY ON THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
VARY FROM THE LOWER 80S IN PLACES THAT HAVEN'T SEEN RAIN FOR A
WHILE TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE MORE SOAKED LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE,
AMID LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
STICKY LOW TO MID 70S. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS BUT ALSO TO
INCLUDE THE CURRENT RADAR AND CAMS' DETAILS FOR THE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THESE ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS AND ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
AT 1830Z, SATELLITE HAS SHOWN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVER CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED FROM
MORNING CONVECTION AND CURRENTLY SIT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG WITH PWATS OF 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES
MAKE FOR A SATURATED AND PRIMED ENVIRONMENT. LOOKING AT 850-MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT, VECTORS ARE ORIENTED IN A GENERAL WEST TO EAST
DIRECTION WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MAGNITUDE, USHERING IN HIGHER PWATS OF
2.0-2.1 INCHES FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY. MORNING CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY, INCLUDING A CORRIDOR FROM POWELL TO PIKE COUNTY,
HAS LEFT THAT AREA MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING FROM ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
A SECONDARY AREA OF CONCERN REMAINS FROM PULASKI TO LETCHER AND ARES
SOUTH, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS YIELDING EQUIVALENT
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE OF 350 K INTERSECTING THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA
ALONG WITH STRONG VECTORS. THIS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS, POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO MULTIPLE INTENSE DOWNPOURS AND A SIGNAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING IF THE ABOVE WERE TO OCCUR.
LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED IN A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WITH A COLD FRONT (BORDERLINE
STATIONARY) DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AS TALKED ABOUT ABOVE
THE AREA SITS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN A MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE.
WITH GROWING INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, SHOWERS AN
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOMMENCE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE.
CONTINUED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING, AND TOMORROW AS THE COLD FRONT SOMEWHAT STALLS OVER THE
AREA, EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER SUNDAY. THE WPC HAS
THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SIGHT EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK (ERO) THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING, AND AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
UNTIL 2 AM MONDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL FLOOD THREAT.
TEMPERATURES COOL THIS EVENING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND IN AREAS WHERE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT OCCURRING, PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURE RECOVER SOME, WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S LOW 80S BEFORE
COOLING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 947 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, THE REMAINING
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM DEPARTING TROUGHING OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, LINGERING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO
TUESDAY. WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION, SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY EASTERLY TO EAST
NORTHEASTERLY, USHERING IN MARGINALLY DRIER AIR. THIS, IN ADDITION
TO A DECLINE IN FORCING, SHOULD WORK TO SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES IN
MOST REGIONS ON TUESDAY. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE KY/TN
LINE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW; HERE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH WITH SUCH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW, ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
SHOULD TREND TOWARDS TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PULSE CONVECTION. ANY RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHOULD FULLY DEPART OUR
REGION AS IT RETROGRADES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH. CONCURRENTLY, 500 MB HEIGHTS COULD TREND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GOING INTO WEDNESDAY; HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO, OWING TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS RIDGING. THE RIDGES POSITION
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST, WHICH
COULD BLOCK THE RIDGES EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AS OF NOW, THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME APPEARS TO BE THAT EASTERN KENTUCKY FINDS ITSELF ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, WITH MODEST RAIN CHANCES IN
THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE TYPICAL ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION, AND AGAIN THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO
THE KY/TN LINE, WITH RAIN CHANCES SWIFTLY DECLINING AFTER SUNSET.
WITH HEIGHT RISES ALOFT, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
TREND WARMER, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS THE LOW 90S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LOOKING AHEAD, MODEL SPREAD INCREASES, BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL LIKELY FIND ITSELF CAUGHT BETWEEN WHAT REMAINS OF
THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST, LEADING
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES AND MARGINALLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD KICKS OFF WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD IOB, JKL, AND LNP.
REDUCTIONS IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS
IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST, BEFORE EVENTUALLY DEPARTING
AROUND AND AFTER DAYBREAK. UNCERTAINTY OVER TIMING AND COVERAGE
EXISTS AGAIN FOR SUNDAY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON, THOUGH THERE IS BROAD-
BASED CAM AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, WINDS WILL
BE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-
069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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