447
FXUS63 KJKL 121138
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
738 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL, WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES TODAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THIS EVENING TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.
- PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND OCCASIONAL RAINFALL WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
MID-70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
- RAIN CHANCES DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
BECOMING LIMITED TO ISOLATED OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON POP-UP
STORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY REMAINING NEAR THE
TENNESSEE BORDER.
- A WARMING TREND TAKES HOLD THIS WEEK, WITH DAILY HIGHS
RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ON MONDAY, AND REACHING
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
A MILD, DAMP, AND IN SOME CASES FOGGY OR SOGGY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
IS UNFOLDING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS RADAR SHOWS AREAS OF SHOWERS
WITH OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDER GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVY COLD
FRONT DRAPED FROM THE OUTER BANKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
TO A WEAK AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND THEN
BEYOND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A POOL OF SEASONABLY HIGH PWATS
NEARING 2 INCHES IS FOUND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL
KENTUCKY TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. LOOKING ALOFT, A POSITIVELY TILTED
500 HPA TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SOUTHWESTWARD
TO OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE, A STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH, CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN, DOMINATES MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY PULL TO THE EAST AND CROSS
THE JKL CWA, SETTLING INTO TN AND VA TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF
THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SURFACE LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD ALONG
THE KY-TN BORDER. EVENTUALLY, THOUGH, THAT LOW SINKS FURTHER
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY THIS EVENING AND TAKES THE
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH IT, LEAVING ONLY A WEAK INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR MONDAY. PWATS WILL REMAIN QUITE
JUICY AROUND 2.0 INCHES TODAY, HIGHEST OVER THE CUMBERLAND BASIN,
BUT WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DIPS TO THE SOUTH. THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE
COMBINED WITH SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER
WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES FROM ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL CELL MOTIONS WON'T BE THAT FAST
EITHER, AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THUS, LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY MORE
PERSISTENT ACTIVITY COULD EVENTUALLY EXPERIENCE HYDRO ISSUES.
ACCORDINGLY, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. ASIDE FROM THE DAMPNESS, THE
CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW MID-JULY
NORMS, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80F ANTICIPATED.
ASIDE FROM A LINGERING STRAY SHOWER, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE TN/KY AND
KY/VA STATE LINES OVERNIGHT, PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG
FORMATION, ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCALES. IT WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS RANGING MAINLY IN THE MID 60S. MORE IN THE
WAY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY WITH RENEWED CONVECTION DURING
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON (PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-64) WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PRIMARILY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STRONGEST CORES MIGHT BE ABLE
TO GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS, AS DCAPE WILL BE ELEVATED IN
SPITE OF MODEST OVERALL INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 947 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, THE REMAINING
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM DEPARTING TROUGHING OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, LINGERING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO
TUESDAY. WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION, SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY EASTERLY TO EAST
NORTHEASTERLY, USHERING IN MARGINALLY DRIER AIR. THIS, IN ADDITION
TO A DECLINE IN FORCING, SHOULD WORK TO SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES IN
MOST REGIONS ON TUESDAY. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE KY/TN
LINE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW; HERE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH WITH SUCH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW, ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
SHOULD TREND TOWARDS TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PULSE CONVECTION. ANY RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHOULD FULLY DEPART OUR
REGION AS IT RETROGRADES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH. CONCURRENTLY, 500 MB HEIGHTS COULD TREND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GOING INTO WEDNESDAY; HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO, OWING TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS RIDGING. THE RIDGES POSITION
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST, WHICH
COULD BLOCK THE RIDGES EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AS OF NOW, THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME APPEARS TO BE THAT EASTERN KENTUCKY FINDS ITSELF ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, WITH MODEST RAIN CHANCES IN
THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE TYPICAL ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION, AND AGAIN THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO
THE KY/TN LINE, WITH RAIN CHANCES SWIFTLY DECLINING AFTER SUNSET.
WITH HEIGHT RISES ALOFT, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
TREND WARMER, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS THE LOW 90S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LOOKING AHEAD, MODEL SPREAD INCREASES, BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL LIKELY FIND ITSELF CAUGHT BETWEEN WHAT REMAINS OF
THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST, LEADING
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES AND MARGINALLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THE 12Z TAF PERIOD KICKS OFF WITH A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS
LIFTING EAST NORTHEAST TOWARD SJS AND JKL AND WIDELY VARYING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VLIFR TO VFR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST THROUGH 15Z. MORE WIDESPREAD DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE IN THE EVENING HOURS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-
069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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