474
FXUS63 KJKL 270855
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
455 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START THE NEW WEEK.
- THESE STORMS COULD BE MORE ORGANIZED AND STRONG TO SEVERE
TONIGHT DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS TO
THE NORTH OF KENTUCKY AND THEIR EVOLUTION.
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
KENTUCKY WHILE A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.
THIS WAS PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR A CLUSTER OF STORMS REACHING
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE JKL CWA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. NOW ALL THAT
REMAINS OF THOSE STORM FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE SOME THICKER MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETREAT SOUTH. THE CLEARING
SKIES IS NOW COMBINING WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER GROUND LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. THIS IS CURRENTLY ADDRESSED IN THE HWO AND WITH AN SPS THAT
RUNS THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. OTHERWISE, IT HAS BEEN A MILD
AND HUMID NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPERATURES (AND
DEWPOINTS) IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AMID LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS - THOUGH SOME MID 60S ARE NOTED CLOSER TO THE BLUEGRASS
REGION GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE STILL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN TWO DISTINCT
5H FEATURES - A LARGE AND STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND BROAD,
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST THAT GETS REINFORCED ON TUESDAY BY A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND CLOSING OFF
THAT NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME, EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE IN THE
MIDST OF FAST NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW THAT BRINGS SEVERAL
IMPULSES THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND BRUSH BY THE JKL CWA.
EACH OF THESE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE A CLUSTER OF STORMS
THAT COULD THEN PROPAGATE INTO OUR AREA. THE ACTIVITY OF THIS
PAST NIGHT WAS JUST ONE EXAMPLE WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CLUSTER
ANTICIPATED LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
SMALL MODEL SPREAD THROUGH MID-WEEK, THE NBM WAS USED AS THE
STARTING POINT FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED. THESE INCLUDE POP TWEAKS BY INCORPORATING THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE FOR CONVECTIVE TIMING AND COVERAGE FROM THE LATEST CAM
RUNS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. ON ACCOUNT OF THE NOW
RELATIVELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND ACTIVITY FORECASTED FOR TONIGHT,
DID NOT SEE MUCH OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVE NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURES
FROM THE NBM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES EVEN WARMER AND HUMID DAYS TO START THE
NEW WORK WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING -
HELPING TO MAXIMIZE TEMPERATURES AND ALLOWING MANY PLACES TO TOP
OUT NEAR 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST CAMS SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST THAT OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTH AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING, BUT BETTER SIGNALS ARE NOTED
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THESE CLUSTERS THEN LEAVE BEHIND BOUNDARIES THAT
COULD REIGNITE WITH GROWING INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY - ALONG WITH AN
BREEZIER WIND FIELD. THIS OCCURS AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE INBOUND
FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT PUSHES A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY THAT
EVENING, WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. BEFORE
THEN, THOUGH, WE WILL HAVE TO NAVIGATE UP TO SEVERAL OF THESE
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS CROSSING THE AREA EACH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS FROM BOWS AND ROBUST STORM OUTFLOWS ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL CELL TRAINING IN A FAIRLY HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTING AN ABOVE NORMAL LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE TO NUDGE THE
POP GRIDS TOWARD THE MORE HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS SOLUTIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DID NOT SEE SOME ANY POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES OR AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ON ACCOUNT OF THE HIGHER
MOISTURE AIR MASS IN PLACE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS PRIMARILY TO INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT
TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS INTO TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO THE SKY COVER. STRONG 5H
RIDGING TO THE WEST STILL LOOKS TO SUPPORT A PERSISTENT GLIDE PATH
FOR MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO DIVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK, THOUGH VISITING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK TO KEEP THE WEATHER CALMER AND DRIER.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS TUESDAY MORNING WITH A PRONOUNCED ~596
DAM HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CANADA. MEANWHILE, TROUGHING EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM AN AROUND 540 DAM LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC TO ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PRESENT
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE MIRRORED AT THE SURFACE
BY A 997 MB SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE ERIE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM THAT LOW TO OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WHILE A
COLD FRONT ARCS SOUTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND ILLINOIS AND THEN BEYOND TO OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
MONTANA. THIS WILL LEAVE EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE LOW'S WARM
SECTOR AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING WITH A SEASONABLY MOIST AIR
MASS (PWATS AROUND 1.8 INCHES).
THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE PA/NY TWIN TIERS
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING ON TUESDAY, DROPPING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
INSTABILITY RECOVERY AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
CONVECTION EARLY IN THE DAY, AND ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH A
POTENTIAL MCS. IF THE FRONTAL ARRIVAL IS SLOWER AND GREATER
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS, UNSEASONABLY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WOULD SUPPORT ROBUST SHEAR AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION. CONVERSELY,
A QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD TEND TO FAVOR KEEPING ANY STRONGER
ORGANIZED CONVECTION CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY OR
PERHAPS ENTIRELY SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, TUESDAY DOES APPEAR BREEZY WITH SOME
MOMENTUM TRANSFER MIXING TO THE SURFACE FROM A LOW-LEVEL JET (30+
KT AT 850 HPA). THE HIGH PWATS COULD ALSO FAVOR SOME ISOLATED
HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR WHERE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL OCCURRED DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OF THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD; BY TUESDAY, THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
CELL MOTIONS QUITE PROGRESSIVE.
ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH LREF MEAN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCH, OR NEAR THE 10TH
PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY. ALOFT, RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WEST WHILE TROUGHING LINGERS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTH FROM
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BROADER TROUGH DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL FOSTER ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS AND DRIFTING TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
VICINITY, BRINGING BACK HIGHER PWATS AND THE RENEWED THREAT OF
CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (POPS OF 60 TO 90 PERCENT, HIGHEST IN FAR EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY) ON TUESDAY. IF SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE
MATERIALIZES, SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND
ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S. FAIR WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS MOSTLY FROM 60 TO 65F.
AS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SIMILAR LEVELS,
BUT NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL MODERATE TO BETWEEN 65 AND 70F WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
MAINLY VFR TAFS ARE SET UP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE 06Z
ISSUANCE. THIS IS IN THE WAKE OF A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER EXITING
OUT OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA INTO TENNESSEE. EXPECT
VFR TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
CLEARING SKIES ALLOW FOR AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP IN
THE VALLEYS. SOME OF THE FOG COULD SNEAK INTO THE TAF SITES AND
BRING CATEGORIES DOWN INTO MVFR AND IFR - ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
SOUTHWEST SITES THAT SAW RAIN IN THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.
ALL THE FOG WILL CLEAR OUT JUST AFTER SUNRISE ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT,
A NEW CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY START TO IMPINGE ON THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 AT
BOTH IOB AND SYM FOR THIS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEERTSON/GREIF
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF
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