956
FXUS63 KJKL 280550 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
150 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE (DAMAGING WIND IS THE MAIN THREAT, THOUGH
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A CONCERN).
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
- DRIER WEATHER WITH MODESTLY LOWER HUMIDITY BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WILL LAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WAS ABLE TO CLEAR OUT THE WATCH ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE IT WAS SET TO
EXPIRE, THOUGH THERE IS A CONCERN FOR RENEWED ACTIVITY COMING IN
FROM THE NORTH CLOSER TOWARDS DAWN. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE ALONG WITH A THREAT OF FLOODING DEPENDING ON HOW ORGANIZED
THEY BECOME. OTHERWISE, HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST BY INCLUDING
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS ALONG WITH POP
ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH DAWN BASED ON THE LATEST CAMS CONSENSUS. THESE
TWEAKS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A
FRESHENING OF THE HWO, ZONES, AND SAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE WATCH SOUTH TO THE TENNESSEE BORDER
GIVEN THE PUSH OF THE BOW MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
IT MAY WEAKEN BEFORE IT GETS TO THE STATE LINE BUT PROBABLY
REMAINS A THREAT WELL PAST THE ORIGINAL WATCH OUTLINE. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS AND ADJUSTED THE POPS AND
THUNDER CHANCES PER THE RADAR TRENDS. THESE ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE
HWO, ZONES, AND SAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
CONVECTION IS ARRIVING FASTER THAN WAS FORECAST, AND HIGHER POPS
HAVE BEEN ADDED EARLIER, ARRIVING FROM NNW TO SSE THIS EVENING.
SVR TSTM WATCH #523 WAS ISSUED FOR OUR NW COUNTIES FOR THE STORMS'
ARRIVAL. HOWEVER, MESONET WIND GUST OBS SO FAR ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE
IN NORTHERN KY. MESOSCALE MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT THE
INITIAL STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY FADE AS THEY COME SOUTH THIS
EVENING. HAVE ALLOWED THIS TO HAPPEN, BUT BLENDED THAT SCENARIO
INTO THE PREVIOUSLY EXISTING FORECAST FOR RENEWED ACTIVITY DURING
THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 525 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS LATE TODAY, WHILE TROUGHING IS OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A WEAK SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM IT THROUGH KY.
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE LOW, AND WITH BRISK WINDS ALOFT PRODUCING SHEAR, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AS THE LOW APPROACHES. THE REGIME GENERATING THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME, BUT THERE IS RATHER
LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW IT PLAYS OUT DURING THE NIGHT.
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE VARYING MOUNTS OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AS
STORMS APPROACH TONIGHT, BUT GENERALLY SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
THREAT. SOME RUNS HAVE HAD CAPE NEAR OR ABOVE 4K J/KG COMBINED
WITH SUPPORTIVE SHEAR, BUT THE PARAMETERS ARE NOT CONSISTENT. A
BLENDED SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR STORMS TO
BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE NNW IS ABOUT 11 PM TO MIDNIGHT, WITH
ACTIVITY THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER, EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL IN WOULD BRING IT INTO THE NORTHERN END OF THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND 9 PM SHOULD THEY HOLD TOGETHER.
EVEN THOUGH INITIAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING, WE WILL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AS WE MOVE
INTO THE DAY. AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST, ITS COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE DAY AND THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. THIS THREAT IS MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST KY AROUND MID DAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, MUCH DRIER AIR ALREADY ARRIVING AT MID LEVELS
MAY LIMIT EFFECTIVE INSTABILITY DUE TO ENTRAINMENT INTO CONVECTIVE
CURRENTS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY AND
MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP SHOULD END AT THAT POINT. COLD/DRY
ADVECTION THEN LASTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A NEW AIR MASS
ARRIVES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 608 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MEANDER WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, WITH RIDGING DOMINATING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS. BY THIS WEEKEND, DEEPER EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY MOVES
ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, PIVOTING A RIDGE AXIS TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. FURTHER
EAST, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, REINFORCING TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AS WE COME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A RETURN OF MORE DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED, ALTHOUGH DETAILS REMAIN LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.
DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN ON LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS RETREATING
TO THE LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF TO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS, WHILE BROADER
VALLEYS AND RIDGES STAY CLOSER TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. MODEST 500
MB HEIGHT RISES AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE JULY, WITH HIGHS AVERAGING
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, RAIN CHANCES WILL CREEP
BACK INTO OUR AREA, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND
TROUGHING RETURNS ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ALOFT.
AGAIN, POPS WILL TEND TO PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT
FORTUNATELY, LREF MEAN PWATS ARE ONLY PEAKING IN THE 50TH-75TH
PERCENTILE VERSUS CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS TIME FRAME, KEEPING ANY
HYDRO THREATS MORE SUPPRESSED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S EACH DAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 60S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING, VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO MOST OF
THE TAF SITES FOR THE START OF THE 06Z PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA AND
PROPAGATE SSE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING - PRE DAWN.
HAVE COVERED FAVORED TIMES WITH PROB30 GROUPS. IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT REMAINS
RATHER LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LATER TODAY, BUT
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF IT DURING PEAK HEATING MAY GIVE AN
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND STRENGTH FOR A TIME,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AVIATION FORECAST AREA. EVEN
THIS RENEWED CONVECTION SHOULD WANE AND LARGELY BE GONE FROM
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BY EVENING. AWAY FROM ANY STORMS, WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FAVORING THE
NORTHWEST DIRECTION AT UP TO 10 KTS. SOME LLWS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THROUGH DAWN, BUT IT SHOULD BE FLEETING IF IT SETS UP.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF
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