356
FXUS63 KJKL 281450
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1050 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
- DRIER WEATHER WITH MODESTLY LOWER HUMIDITY BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WILL LAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1049 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
MORNING CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA, AND SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME BREIF CLEARING OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS PUSH SOUTH AND WEST. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH NEAR TERM GRIDS JUST BEING FRESHENED UP
WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL DATA FROM AROUND THE AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
MCS TO THE EAST GENERATED A VERY IMPRESSIVE STORM ON THE BORDER
WITH WEST VIRGINIA THAT LOOKED QUITE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO EARLY IN ITS LIFE CYCLE. IT HAS SINCE BROADENED OUT AND
THE WARNING WAS DROPPED. ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ARE MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT INBOUND FROM THE
NORTHWEST. DON'T THINK THESE ARE THE LAST OF THE STORMS TODAY AND
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ONE MORE ROUND AS THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SET
UP DEPICTING. DID UPDATE THE NEAR TERM FOR THIS BLOSSOMING
ACTIVITY ON RADAR AND INCLUDED THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE
T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS PULLING A WELL
DEFINED WARM FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE LOW CUTS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY, AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN THE AIR MASS, AND SOME MID LEVEL SUPPORT BROUGHT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT. THE LAST OF THESE HAS FADED OUT AS IT EXITED SOUTH OUT
OF THE STATE, BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING TO THE
NORTH AND COULD THREATEN AT LEAST NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA BY
DAWN. OTHERWISE, SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG FROM TIME TO TIME. IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER
MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPERATURES
(AND DEWPOINTS) IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AMID LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS - AWAY FROM THE EARLIER STORMS.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, MAINTAIN THEIR
GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT EASTERN KENTUCKY STUCK BETWEEN TWO
DISTINCT AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 5H FEATURES - A LARGE, PERSISTENT,
HEAT DOME RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEAST THAT GETS REINFORCED TONIGHT BY A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND CLOSING OFF BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS, EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE IN
THE HEART OF FAST NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW THAT BRINGS SEVERAL
IMPULSES THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY BUT NEVER SEEM TO TAKE A
DIRECT SHOT AT THE JKL CWA. EACH OF THESE PERTURBATIONS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CREATE A CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT COULD THEN PROPAGATE
INTO OUR AREA - THOUGH THE MAIN ZONE OF ACTIVITY SHIFTS JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY EVENING. UNTIL THEN, THOUGH, JUST
AS THE CONVECTION CLUSTER OF THIS PAST NIGHT WAS ONE OF THESE
SUCH EVENTS, ANOTHER IS ANTICIPATED, BUT FURTHER NORTHEAST, EARLY
THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS A THIRD BY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE JKL CWA. GIVEN THE SMALL SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS
ALOFT THROUGH MID-WEEK, THE NBM WAS USED AS THE STARTING POINT
FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. THESE
INCLUDE POPS TWEAKED BY INCORPORATING THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR
CONVECTIVE TIMING AND COVERAGE FROM THE LATEST CAM RUNS FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE START OF THE EVENING. WITH DRIER AIR
INBOUND TONIGHT, DID SEE SOME LIMITED OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVE
NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE NBM BY ADDING TERRAIN DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A WARM AND HUMID DAY, THOUGH ONE THAT
MAY START OUT WET AND CLOUDY ON ACCOUNT OF A LOW CONFIDENT
FORECAST FOR A CLUSTER OF STORMS - POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED AND
STRONG - TO START THE DAY AND SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. THE NORTHEAST LOOKS TO BE MOST PRONE TO SEEING
SUCH CONVECTION AND AS SUCH WILL LIKELY END UP AS THE COOL SPOT
OF THE STATE. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY, AND
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE PARENT LOW SLICING TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES, WILL MAKE FOR RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS
FOR MID SUMMER - PROVIDED BY ABNORMAL SYNOPTICS DURING THE TIME OF
YEAR WHEN WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE IN THE SUMMER DOLDRUMS.
ANYWAYS, THIS SYSTEM BRINGS A NICE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS SO THAT
ONCE THE STORMS DEPART TO THE SOUTH, WITH THE EXITING FRONT,
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOLLOW MAKING FOR PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY - ONCE THE NOCTURNAL VALLEY FOG
DISSIPATES.
THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE TO PUSH THE
NEAR TERM POP GRIDS TOWARD THE MORE HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS
SOLUTIONS BUT WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE. DID SEE SOME
LIMITED POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ON ACCOUNT OF THE CHANGING AIR MASS BECOMING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS PRIMARILY TO INCLUDE MORE IN THE WAY OF
TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS INTO TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS ALONG WITH DRIER AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. STRONG 5H RIDGING TO THE WEST STILL LOOKS TO SUPPORT A
PATH FOR MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO DIVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
BEFORE ONE OF THESE MAY TRY TO CUT OFF TO OUR WEST DURING THE
WEEKEND. THANKFULLY, SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FROM FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK LOOK TO KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET, DRY,
AND RATHER PLEASANT. RETURN FLOW MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS SEEM DESTINED TO RETURN STORM CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
STARTING SATURDAY.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MEANDER WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, WITH RIDGING DOMINATING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS. BY THIS WEEKEND, DEEPER EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY MOVES
ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, PIVOTING A RIDGE AXIS TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. FURTHER
EAST, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, REINFORCING TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AS WE COME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A RETURN OF MORE DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED, ALTHOUGH DETAILS REMAIN LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.
DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN ON LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS RETREATING
TO THE LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF TO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS, WHILE BROADER
VALLEYS AND RIDGES STAY CLOSER TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. MODEST 500
MB HEIGHT RISES AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE JULY, WITH HIGHS AVERAGING
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, RAIN CHANCES WILL CREEP
BACK INTO OUR AREA, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND
TROUGHING RETURNS ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ALOFT.
AGAIN, POPS WILL TEND TO PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT
FORTUNATELY, LREF MEAN PWATS ARE ONLY PEAKING IN THE 50TH-75TH
PERCENTILE VERSUS CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS TIME FRAME, KEEPING ANY
HYDRO THREATS MORE SUPPRESSED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S EACH DAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 60S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 820 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE AREA
WITH THE MORE SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS BEING IMPACTED AS THE LATEST
CLUSTERS MOVE THROUGH. LOOK FOR THESE STORMS TO CLEAR OUT EARLY
THEN A BRIEF LULL IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE NEW CELLS DEVELOP TOWARDS
NOON. HAVE COVERED FAVORED TIMES FOR STORMS WITH PROB30 GROUPS.
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH THE
MORE INTENSE STORMS, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING
AND PLACEMENT REMAINS LOW. EVENTUALLY THIS RENEWED CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE AND LARGELY BE GONE FROM SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY
EVENING. AWAY FROM ANY STORMS, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FAVORING THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION AT
UP TO 10 KTS. LATER TONIGHT, VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY BECOME
A FACTOR IN SOME OF THE TAF SITES, BUT WAS LEFT OUT FOR NOW IN
LIEU OF THE MORE ACTIVE NEAR TERM FM GROUPS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JKL/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF
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