779
FXUS63 KJKL 281757
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
157 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON,TAPERING OFF BY LATER AFTERNOON.
- DRIER WEATHER WITH MODESTLY LOWER HUMIDITY BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WILL LAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526 IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM
THIS EVENING.
A CLOSED LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SYSTEMS COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST THROUGH PORTIONS OF
PENNSYLVANIA, WEST VIRGINA, AND KENTUCKY. AFTER SOME MORNING
CONVECTION, THE AREA HAS SEEN THE SUN PEAK OUT IN SPOTS. SURFACE
ANALYSIS AND RAP GUIDANCE SUGGEST MLCAPE WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2000-
2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, WITH 35-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL TYPE
STORMS INITIALLY BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO BOWING SEGMENTS. THE MAIN
HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS ARE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONSISTENTLY SHOW DCAPE AROUND 1300 J/KG. WITH A DRY MID LAYER
BETWEEN 700-500 MB (LAPSE RATE OF 7.4C/KM), ANY RAIN THAT EVAPORATES
PASSING THROUGH THIS LAYER, AND COOLS COULD POTENTIALLY AID IN
ACCELERATING DOWNDRAFTS. WITH MUCAPE RANGING BETWEEN 3000-5000 J/KG
AND DCAPE AROUND 1300 J/KG THE DERECHO COMPOSITE TOOL ON THE SPC
PAGE IS CLUING IN ON THE WIND POTENTIAL. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EVENING, WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY,
ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS PRIMARILY TO INCLUDE MORE IN THE WAY OF
TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS INTO TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS ALONG WITH DRIER AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. STRONG 5H RIDGING TO THE WEST STILL LOOKS TO SUPPORT A
PATH FOR MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO DIVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
BEFORE ONE OF THESE MAY TRY TO CUT OFF TO OUR WEST DURING THE
WEEKEND. THANKFULLY, SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FROM FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK LOOK TO KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET, DRY,
AND RATHER PLEASANT. RETURN FLOW MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS SEEM DESTINED TO RETURN STORM CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
STARTING SATURDAY.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MEANDER WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, WITH RIDGING DOMINATING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS. BY THIS WEEKEND, DEEPER EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY MOVES
ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, PIVOTING A RIDGE AXIS TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. FURTHER
EAST, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, REINFORCING TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AS WE COME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A RETURN OF MORE DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED, ALTHOUGH DETAILS REMAIN LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.
DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN ON LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS RETREATING
TO THE LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF TO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS, WHILE BROADER
VALLEYS AND RIDGES STAY CLOSER TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. MODEST 500
MB HEIGHT RISES AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE JULY, WITH HIGHS AVERAGING
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, RAIN CHANCES WILL CREEP
BACK INTO OUR AREA, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND
TROUGHING RETURNS ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ALOFT.
AGAIN, POPS WILL TEND TO PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT
FORTUNATELY, LREF MEAN PWATS ARE ONLY PEAKING IN THE 50TH-75TH
PERCENTILE VERSUS CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS TIME FRAME, KEEPING ANY
HYDRO THREATS MORE SUPPRESSED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S EACH DAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 60S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 820 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE AREA
WITH THE MORE SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS BEING IMPACTED AS THE LATEST
CLUSTERS MOVE THROUGH. LOOK FOR THESE STORMS TO CLEAR OUT EARLY
THEN A BRIEF LULL IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE NEW CELLS DEVELOP TOWARDS
NOON. HAVE COVERED FAVORED TIMES FOR STORMS WITH PROB30 GROUPS.
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH THE
MORE INTENSE STORMS, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING
AND PLACEMENT REMAINS LOW. EVENTUALLY THIS RENEWED CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE AND LARGELY BE GONE FROM SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY
EVENING. AWAY FROM ANY STORMS, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FAVORING THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION AT
UP TO 10 KTS. LATER TONIGHT, VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY BECOME
A FACTOR IN SOME OF THE TAF SITES, BUT WAS LEFT OUT FOR NOW IN
LIEU OF THE MORE ACTIVE NEAR TERM FM GROUPS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JKL/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF
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