216
FXUS63 KJKL 282037
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
437 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE,
WILL EXIT SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING.
- DRIER WEATHER WITH MODESTLY LOWER HUMIDITY BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WILL LAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526 IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM
THIS EVENING.
A CLOSED LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SYSTEMS COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST THROUGH PORTIONS OF
PENNSYLVANIA, WEST VIRGINA, AND KENTUCKY. AFTER SOME MORNING
CONVECTION, THE AREA HAS SEEN THE SUN PEAK OUT IN SPOTS. SURFACE
ANALYSIS AND RAP GUIDANCE SUGGEST MLCAPE WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2000-
2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, WITH 35-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL TYPE
STORMS INITIALLY BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO BOWING SEGMENTS. THE MAIN
HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS ARE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONSISTENTLY SHOW DCAPE AROUND 1300 J/KG. WITH A DRY MID LAYER
BETWEEN 700-500 MB (LAPSE RATE OF 7.4C/KM), ANY RAIN THAT EVAPORATES
PASSING THROUGH THIS LAYER, AND COOLS COULD POTENTIALLY AID IN
ACCELERATING DOWNDRAFTS. WITH MUCAPE RANGING BETWEEN 3000-5000 J/KG
AND DCAPE AROUND 1300 J/KG THE DERECHO COMPOSITE TOOL ON THE SPC
PAGE IS CLUING IN ON THE WIND POTENTIAL. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EVENING, WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY,
ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS THURSDAY MORNING WITH A DEEP TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST US COAST. MEANWHILE, AN ~596 DAM HIGH IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH BROADER RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. THIS LEAVES THE OHIO VALLEY IN A ZONE
OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGING, CORRESPONDING TO
AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD.
ASIDE FROM SOME NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG IN THE TYPICALLY FAVORED
RIVER VALLEY LOCALES, FAIR WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER AND
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE JKL CWA. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60F. DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
QUITE COMFORTABLE.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLOSE
OFF INTO A LOW OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN OCCLUDE AND
DECAY NEAR OR OVER THE COMMONWEALTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL WRAP HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WHILE
ALSO BRINGING ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. AS A RESULT, DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S, WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS MODERATE TO BETWEEN 65 AND
70F.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 820 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE AREA
WITH THE MORE SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS BEING IMPACTED AS THE LATEST
CLUSTERS MOVE THROUGH. LOOK FOR THESE STORMS TO CLEAR OUT EARLY
THEN A BRIEF LULL IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE NEW CELLS DEVELOP TOWARDS
NOON. HAVE COVERED FAVORED TIMES FOR STORMS WITH PROB30 GROUPS.
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH THE
MORE INTENSE STORMS, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING
AND PLACEMENT REMAINS LOW. EVENTUALLY THIS RENEWED CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE AND LARGELY BE GONE FROM SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY
EVENING. AWAY FROM ANY STORMS, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FAVORING THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION AT
UP TO 10 KTS. LATER TONIGHT, VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY BECOME
A FACTOR IN SOME OF THE TAF SITES, BUT WAS LEFT OUT FOR NOW IN
LIEU OF THE MORE ACTIVE NEAR TERM FM GROUPS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GREIF
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