698
FXUS63 KJKL 291936
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
336 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER WEATHER WITH MODESTLY LOWER HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
-THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW YORK CONTINUES TO BRING 500-MB TROUGHING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER WEST
REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY ARE MODELED TO BE SITUATED NEAR THE INFLECTION
POINT BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGER 500-MB HEIGHT FEATURES. OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, THE CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS FURTHER INTO NEW
ENGLAND, AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER NEW MEXICO. WHILE
THIS OCCURS A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH, THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN, AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE HEADING INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE
UPPER 50S IN VALLEYS TO LOWER 60S ALONG RIDGE TOPS. SOME PATCHY FOG
MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE
TYPICAL MAINSTEM RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. THURSDAY, AFTER MORNING FOG
MIXES OUT, TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP INTO
THE EVENING, BUT MAY BE MORE SPARSE, BEING ANOTHER DAY REMOVED FROM
ANY RESENT RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS PRIMARILY TO INCLUDE MORE IN THE WAY OF
TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS INTO TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH DRIER AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE WESTWARD RETREAT OF THE
STRONG 5H RIDGE TO THE WEST LOOKS TO ALLOW SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST
FLOW TO START CUTTING TO THE WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
LIKELY SETTING UP LOWER HEIGHTS FOR THE REGION WITH A TROUGH AXIS
THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. ACCORDINGLY,
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO
KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET, DRY, AND RATHER PLEASANT. THEN RETURN
FLOW MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS RETURN STORM CHANCES
TO THE FORECAST STARTING SATURDAY ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS THURSDAY MORNING WITH A DEEP TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST US COAST. MEANWHILE, AN ~596 DAM HIGH IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH BROADER RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. THIS LEAVES THE OHIO VALLEY IN A ZONE
OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGING, CORRESPONDING TO
AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD.
ASIDE FROM SOME NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG IN THE TYPICALLY FAVORED
RIVER VALLEY LOCALES, FAIR WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER AND
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE JKL CWA. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60F. DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
QUITE COMFORTABLE.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLOSE
OFF INTO A LOW OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN OCCLUDE AND
DECAY NEAR OR OVER THE COMMONWEALTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL WRAP HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WHILE
ALSO BRINGING ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. AS A RESULT, DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S, WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS MODERATE TO BETWEEN 65 AND
70F.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SCATTERED
CU DECK REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00-02Z. SOME PATCHY FOG
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 09-12Z BUT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE RIVER
VALLEYS. THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GEERTSON/GREIF
AVIATION...GINNICK
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