745
FXUS63 KJKL 312003
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
403 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
AT 18Z A MID-LEVEL SCATTERED CU DECK WAS OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE AREA LARGELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.
ANALYZING THE 500-MB HEIGHT CHARTS, SOME PROMINENT FEATURES ARE THE
TROUGHING OFF EAST CONUS, WITH A SKINNY RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE OTTOWA VALLEY OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. FARTHER
WEST, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN BE SEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A LARGE RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN CONUS, WITH A
597-DM HIGH OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION OF THE SOUTHWEST US. HEADING
FORWARD IN TIME THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
EVENING, AND ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. PWAT
ACROSS THE AREA WILL START OUT AROUND 1-1.2 INCHES. ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 8 AM, BUT WILL LIKELY
FEATURE A DRY SLOT, LEADING TO AREAS OF DESTABILIZATION HEADING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, HIGHER 2-2.2 INCH PWATS WILL
ADVECT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE PWATS WILL
BE ABOVE THE 97TH PERCENTILE, EXCEEDING THE 99TH PERCENTILE AT
TIMES. AS THIS SURFACES LOW ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE OFF, THE MEAN SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB WOULD BE THE ALL TIME LOWEST PRESSURE
RECORDED IN THE AREA FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (BELOW THE 1ST
PERCENTILE). MORE NOTABLY, LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING MORE
AGREEMENT AROUND THE LOW CLOSING OFF. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLOW
MOVING STORMS, OR SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM THROUGH
THE AREA. A LLJ AROUND 25-35 KTS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THE LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH 500-1200 J/KG OF MLCAPE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-75 CORRIDOR ALONG WITH 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 150 M2/S2, THE SPC HAS
PLACED AND AREA ENCOMPASSING THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND I-75 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD ENCOMPASSING THE RED RIVER GORGE AREA, AND COVERING MUCH OF
THE BLUEGRASS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD IN THESE AREA ARE STORMS THAT HAVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
HOWEVER THERE'S ALSO A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A BREIF TORNADO AS WELL.
TIMING FOR THE MOST SEVERE IS SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS IN
THE MORNING WITH THE FIRST ROUND. THE QUICKER STORMS CLEAR OUT IN
THE MORNING THE MORE TIME THERE IS FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE
FOR ROUND 2, THAT SAID CURRENT THINKING IS DISCRETE CELLS COULD MOVE
THROUGH THE ABOVE HIGHLIGHTED AREAS BETWEEN 6 AND 10 PM.
WITH ABNORMALLY HIGH PWATS ABOVE 2.0 INCHES EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE LOW TO CLOSE OFF, BECOMING SLOWER, THE WPC ALSO HAS THE WESTERN
2/3RDS TO THE JACKSON CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
IN SUMMARY, INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THE SECOND ROUND OF STORM COULD
BE SEVERE, GENERALLY THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND I-75 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD ENCOMPASSING THE RED RIVER GORGE AREA, AND COVERING MUCH OF
THE BLUEGRASS AREA. THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
THROUGH A BREIF TORNADO CANT BE RULED OUT. STORMS CAN PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT CAN ALSO LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATES COOL
INTO THE UPPER 60S THIS EVENING BEFORE WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S TOMORROW. WITH CLOUDED SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL
TEND TO STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 IN PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE DEALING WITH A SEEMINGLY
TOO EARLY SYNOPTIC LOW SLOWLY WORKING EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND SOME, MOSTLY
STRATIFORM, RAIN AROUND WELL INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK
- EVENTUALLY TAKING ON A DIURNAL PATTERN TO THE CONVECTION.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS 12Z SATURDAY WITH A POSITIVELY-TILTED
500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BEHIND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEPARTING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AN
~1003 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A WARM FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN
GEORGIA, WHILE A COLD FRONT ARCS TO THE SOUTH INTO THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH, 500 HPA TROUGHING IS FOCUSED OVER AND ADJACENT TO HUDSON AND
JAMES BAY, SUPPORTING A SECOND COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM A SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND SOUTHWARD TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY, AND THEN
WESTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE FURTHER
WEST, AN ~599 DAM HIGH IS SITUATED OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
BASIN WHILE A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES.
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST WILL OCCUR DURING
THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT BECOMES MORE MERIDIONALLY
ORIENTED ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW TRACKS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL SEND THE WARM FRONT
PUSHING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CATCHES
UP AND OCCLUDES. AT THE SAME TIME, THE NORTHERLY TROUGH WILL ALSO
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND CAPTURE SOME OR MUCH OF THE
VORTICITY ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY SHORTWAVE. THERE
IS ADMITTEDLY SUBSTANTIAL DISPARITY FROM MODEL- TO-MODEL AND RUN-
TO-RUN REGARDING HOW MUCH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS WITH THE
CLOSED-OFF LOW OR PERTURBATION THAT LINGERS. IN ANY CASE, THE MUCH
DIMINISHED UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT OF THE SURFACE LOW LEAVES IT TO
MEANDER SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL STRUCTURES AS RELATIVELY SUBTLE WEAKNESS LINGERS
IN THE HEIGHTS ALOFT. MEANWHILE, A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM'S COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-
WEEK BUT STAGNATE THERE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND AND JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS PWATS RISE TO
1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES (OR 90TH TO 95TH PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO CLIMO)
IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. WPC'S SLIGHT RISK (2
OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS EXPANDED TO COVER ALL BUT THE
EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF PIKE COUNTY. EFFICIENT WARM LAYER RAINFALL
PROCESSES COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION IN
A HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT ARE ALL SUPPORTIVE OF A LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT, POSSIBLY LEADING TO INSTANCES OF FLOODING. A
NOTABLE MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE ANTECEDENT DRYING ONGOING PRIOR
TO THE EVENT---THE 3-HOUR FFG CURRENTLY RANGES FROM 1.75 TO 2.50
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE JKL CWA AND WILL LIKELY IMPROVE FURTHER
WITH AN ADDITIONAL 36 TO 48 HOURS OF DRYING. AS FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL, SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR LIMITED ORGANIZATION,
BUT OVERALL DESTABILIZATION REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-75. IF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MATERIALIZE, THEY WOULD
MOST LIKELY OCCUR WEST OF I-75. PWATS FALL BACK SOMEWHAT SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES, BUT THE
SECOND COLD FRONT FAILS TO PRESS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DROP PWAT
LEVELS BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE
REMNANT WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL STILL COMBINE WITH THE DAILY HEATING
CYCLE TO KEEP THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY ONWARD.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, CLOUDS AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY, WITH COVERAGE PEAKING SATURDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY PEAK ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS,
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUGGY BOTH
WEEKEND DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND
LOWS NOT FAR FROM 70F. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEW WORK WEEK,
TEMPERATURES START THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 80F ON MONDAY BEFORE
SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY, WHILE
NIGHTTIME LOWS RANGE FROM THE 60S TO NEAR 70F. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY AS WELL, PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
A SCATTERED MID LEVEL CU FIELD WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS HIGHER LEVEL CIRRUS WORKING IN
FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD, BUT INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACHING LOW THIS EVENING. -SHRA WAS INTRODUCED TO ALL TAF
SITES ANYTIME AFTER 10-12Z SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM 13Z ONWARD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD, BECOMING LIGHT
AND SOUTHERLY ANYTIME AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO PASS
OVER TAF LOCATIONS CAN DROP CONDITIONS FROM VFR INTO MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GEERTSON/GREIF
AVIATION...GINNICK
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