939
FXUS63 KJKL 312339
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
739 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
A DAMAGING WIND AND A BRIEF TORNADO RISK COVERS AREAS OVER AND
WEST OF I-75 AND THE BLUEGRASS LATE SATURDAY.
- TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.
- A SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM KEEPS DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES, ALONG
WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH MAINLY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PROGRESS ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO A LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY TRACK EAST, AND DID UPDATE POPS TO
ALIGN BETTER WITH THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. HOWEVER, THE CAMS
SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND THEREFORE WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON PROGRESSION EAST THIS EVENING FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. OUTSIDE THIS OVERALL MINOR CHANGES
NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
AT 18Z A MID-LEVEL SCATTERED CU DECK WAS OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE AREA LARGELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.
ANALYZING THE 500-MB HEIGHT CHARTS, SOME PROMINENT FEATURES ARE THE
TROUGHING IN THE EAST CONUS, WITH A SKINNY RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE OTTAWA VALLEY OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
FARTHER WEST, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN BE SEEN OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A LARGE RIDGE REMAINS OVER
WESTERN CONUS, WITH A 597-DM HIGH OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION OF THE
SOUTHWEST US. HEADING FORWARD IN TIME, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
EVENING, AND ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WILL START OUT AROUND THE 1
INCH RANGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AFTER
8 AM SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING, HIGHER PWAT VALUES IN THE 2 INCH RANGE WILL
ADVECT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THESE PWATS WILL
BE GENERALLY ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS
THIS SURFACES LOW DEEPENS, THE MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB
WOULD BE ONE OF THE LOWER PRESSURES SEEN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
BASED ON THE CLIMATOLOGY FROM 1979 TO 2009 IN THE NAEFS
CLIMATOLOGY TABLES. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONGER CONSENSUS
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF, WHICH COULD SLOW DOWN
STORM MOVEMENT AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE STORM SYSTEM THROUGH
THE CWA. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS PWATS, COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SLOWING SYSTEM, WPC HAS PLACED THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WHERE LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT.
WITH 500-1200 J/KG OF MLCAPE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR
COMBINED WITH INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE,
THE SPC HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, I-75
CORRIDOR, RED RIVER GORGE AREA, AND COVERING MUCH OF THE BLUEGRASS
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, THOUGH
A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SEVERE WEATHER TIMING REMAINS
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON MORNING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION, BUT RIGHT NOW
THE STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA GENERALLY
BETWEEN 5 PM TO 11 PM.
IN SUMMARY, INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE, MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU,
I-75 CORRIDOR, RED RIVER GORGE AREA, AND COVERING MUCH OF THE
BLUEGRASS AREA. THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
THROUGH A BREIF TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
COULD ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TONIGHT BEFORE CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S ON SATURDAY. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD DAWNS SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK, CLOSED ~575
DAM LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA WITHIN A POSITIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY, WHERE A
BROADER 500 HPA TROUGH IS PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THIS
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL LIE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED ATOP AN
OCCLUDING ~1004 MB SURFACE LOW. WHILE THAT DOES NOT SOUND ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE, THE NAEFS AND ECMWF ENS SHOW THAT MSLP VALUES OF
THIS DEPTH FALL BELOW 1979-2009 CFSR CLIMATOLOGY, INDICATIVE OF
HOW RARE IT IS TO HAVE A DEVELOPED MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE PASSING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SYSTEM'S COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW NEAR CINCINNATI,
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR INTO TENNESSEE, AND THEN
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WHILE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE NORTHERN STREAM 500 HPA TROUGH
PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND
STEALING SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH/
CLOSING LOW, THE 31/12Z MODEL SUITE SEEMS TO BE LATCHING ONTO MORE
OF THE VORTICITY ENERGY REMAINING WITH THE CLOSED LOW AND
GYRATING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THAT SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY DEPARTS LATER IN THE WEEK ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST CONUS, AND AN ASSOCIATED BELT
OF WESTERLIES ALOFT CAPTURES THE REMNANT LOW AND SWEEPS IT AWAY.
FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TRENDS QUASI-ZONAL BY LATE WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
REMAINS NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT DRIFTS TO OVER THE MID-
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY, WHERE IT WOBBLES AND LARGELY DISSIPATES
BEFORE ITS REMNANTS ARE PULLED AWAY TO THE NORTH BY MID-WEEK. AS A
RESULT, THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE JKL CWA
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, SOME OF THE
LONGEST-RANGE CAMS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST WEAKLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO VA
AND WV. WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW LINGERING ALOFT, PWATS ARE NOW
LIKELY TO STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY, AS WELL AS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (MORE SO THAN WHAT WAS EXPECTED IN RECENT
DAYS). THE RESULT WILL BE A LOT MORE CLOUD COVER AND DIURNALLY-
MODULATED CONVECTION WITH GREATEST RAINFALL COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND CONTINUED THOUGH LOWER RAIN CHANCES AT
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A LINGERING NEARLY SATURATED DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, AND ELEVATED PWATS IN THE 1.75
TO 2.00 INCH RANGE, WARRANTED THE ADDITION OF MARGINAL RISK EROS
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
SUBSIDES LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEPARTS AND
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS DRIER AND WARMER AIR TO FILTER
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS MID-WEEK. WHILE A FEW POP-UP
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED AND BE
CONFINED LARGELY TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR A RELATIVE LULL IN THE RAINFALL
SUNDAY MORNING, GIVING WAY TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD BE STRONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. IT WILL BE HUMID AND MILD
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN FOLLOW A
DIURNAL CYCLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH COVERAGE GREATER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT STILL REMAINING POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. IT WILL
BE QUITE HUMID AND MUGGY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S
AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE PATTERN TURNS DRIER
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S, WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS
RANGE FROM 65 TO 70F.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
TAF SITES ARE STARTING THE PERIOD OFF IN THE VFR RANGE, WITH
PERHAPS A 5 KFT DECK OF CUMULUS PASSING BY FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY
BRING IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO PERIOD OF VIS
AND CIG RESTRICTIONS IN THE MVFR RANGE OR LOWER AT TIMES. GIVEN
THIS DID ADD IN A PROB30 FOR ALL THE SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY, WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THESE
GUSTS COULD BE HIGHER IF TAF SITES ARE IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...DJ
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