941
FXUS63 KJKL 011508
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1108 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH A
DAMAGING WIND AND A BRIEF TORNADO RISK COVERS WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA.
- A SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM KEEPS DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES, ALONG
WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, IN THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- SOMEWHAT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS CLEARING SKIES OFF TO THE WEST. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WORK
THEIR WAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THE
SECOND ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING IS SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON WHEN AND HOW MUCH
CLEARING OCCURS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A QUICKER CLEAR OUT
WILL AID IN THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING, HOWEVER IF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS LINGER FROM THIS MORNING IT MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN
LATER CONVECTION. THE FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH
T/TD GRIDS BEING FRESHENED UP WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS
AS THE STEADIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CREEP SLOWER TO
THE AREA. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF
KENTUCKY AS A UNSEASONABLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING
INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM IS PUSHING A WARM FRONT
INTO KENTUCKY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS MOVED OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES PRE-DAWN FOR OUR
WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AND HELPING TO SUPPORT MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE
AREA THIS NIGHT. SPECIFICALLY, READINGS VARY FROM THE LOW 70S IN
THE WEST WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS AND ON THE EASTERN RIDGES WHILE
MANY SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST HAVE FALLEN TO THE MIDDLE
60S. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST
TO THE LOW 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE REGION CENTERED
AROUND THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AND A SEASONABLY DEEP 5H CLOSED
LOW ANOMALY DIGGING INTO KENTUCKY FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH BRINGS LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A LARGE AREA
OF DISTINCT ENERGY INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN
RESEMBLES AN AUTUMN ONE FAR MORE THAN WE ARE USED TO SEEING HERE
IN THE HEART OF SUMMER. ACCORDINGLY, IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT
THIS WILL BE A SITUATION RIPE WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE EXTREME
SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF SEVERE STORMS AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL - SPECIFICALLY TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT ALSO A LIMITED
THREAT CONTINUING ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EAST.
ON ACCOUNT OF THE STILL SMALL MODEL SPREAD ALOFT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, THE NBM WAS USED AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE FORECAST
GRIDS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE POPS AND THUNDER
CHANCES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON VIA ENHANCEMENT FROM THE
LATEST CONSENSUS CAMS GUIDANCE (WITH MORE GENEROUS SMOOTHING THAN
USUAL).
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE ASPECTS AND CONCERN FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLIER OF A SFC LOW SLOWLY WORKS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF OF KENTUCKY IN THE SYSTEM'S WARM
SECTOR FOR MUCH OF THAT TIME. CONSIDERING THE VEERING WINDS OF
DECENT SPEED WITH HEIGHT IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE HEAT OF EARLY AUGUST LIKELY BUILDING
AREAS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY THROUGH PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS WELL WARRANTED. CENTRAL KENTUCKY SEEMS THE
MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR SUCH DEVELOPMENT BUT THIS THREAT WILL EXTEND
EAST INTO THE JKL CWA, AS WELL - BUT WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY.
THE SOURCE OF THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER FOR THESE
PARTS COMES FROM AN INITIAL BAND OF MAINLY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY - JUST AFTER SUNRISE -
LIMITING THE INSTABILITY FOR AWHILE LONGER THAN SPOTS FURTHER
WEST. IN ADDITION, THE MOST ORGANIZED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE MORE DISCRETE CELLS THAT CAN FORM ONCE THE AREA
DESTABILIZES LATER IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH LESS OF A
HINDRANCE FOR THESE ANTICIPATED FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY. AS A
RESULT, THERE IS GREATER CONCERN FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL CLOSER TO
CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAN POINTS EAST. THE LATEST HRRR'S HELICITY
SWATHS INDICATE SUCH THOUGHTS ARE REASONABLE ALONG WITH MOST CAMS
SHOWING THE GREATEST INSTABILITY PEAKING JUST WEST OF THE JKL CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATTER ROUNDS OF STORM MAY TAKE ON MORE LINEAR
ASPECTS, AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY, ON ACCOUNT OF THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS, WE NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FROM TRAINING HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
AREA OF SUCH ACTIVE WEATHER CONCERNS SHIFTS EAST AND WANES A BIT
FOR SUNDAY - BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR COMFORT. OTHERWISE HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES PEAKING JUST BELOW NORMAL
WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER
TONIGHT WITH NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND.
THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE TO INCLUDE
CONSIDERABLE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE LATEST CAMS CONSENSUS
SOLUTION FOR THE POPS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL GRIDS FOR BETTER
COVERAGE AND TIMING VIA THE HIGHER RESOLUTION AND MORE RECENT
SOLUTIONS. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WHERE NOT CHANGED MUCH GIVEN
THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 540 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE DEALING WITH THE DE-
EVOLUTION OF THAT TOO EARLY SYNOPTIC LOW SLOWLY WORKING EAST
THROUGH AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN AROUND WELL INTO THE START OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK - CONTINUING THE HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS - THOUGH A
MORE DIURNAL PATTERN TAKES OVER WITH TIME FOR THE CONVECTION.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD DAWNS SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK, CLOSED ~575
DAM LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA WITHIN A POSITIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY, WHERE A
BROADER 500 HPA TROUGH IS PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THIS
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL LIE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED ATOP AN
OCCLUDING ~1004 MB SURFACE LOW. WHILE THAT DOES NOT SOUND ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE, THE NAEFS AND ECMWF ENS SHOW THAT MSLP VALUES OF
THIS DEPTH FALL BELOW 1979-2009 CFSR CLIMATOLOGY, INDICATIVE OF
HOW RARE IT IS TO HAVE A DEVELOPED MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE PASSING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SYSTEM'S COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW NEAR CINCINNATI,
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR INTO TENNESSEE, AND THEN
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WHILE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE NORTHERN STREAM 500 HPA TROUGH
PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND
STEALING SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH/
CLOSING LOW, THE 31/12Z MODEL SUITE SEEMS TO BE LATCHING ONTO MORE
OF THE VORTICITY ENERGY REMAINING WITH THE CLOSED LOW AND
GYRATING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THAT SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY DEPARTS LATER IN THE WEEK ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST CONUS, AND AN ASSOCIATED BELT
OF WESTERLIES ALOFT CAPTURES THE REMNANT LOW AND SWEEPS IT AWAY.
FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TRENDS QUASI-ZONAL BY LATE WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
REMAINS NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT DRIFTS TO OVER THE MID-
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY, WHERE IT WOBBLES AND LARGELY DISSIPATES
BEFORE ITS REMNANTS ARE PULLED AWAY TO THE NORTH BY MID-WEEK. AS A
RESULT, THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE JKL CWA
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, SOME OF THE
LONGEST-RANGE CAMS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST WEAKLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO VA
AND WV. WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW LINGERING ALOFT, PWATS ARE NOW
LIKELY TO STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY, AS WELL AS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (MORE SO THAN WHAT WAS EXPECTED IN RECENT
DAYS). THE RESULT WILL BE A LOT MORE CLOUD COVER AND DIURNALLY-
MODULATED CONVECTION WITH GREATEST RAINFALL COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND CONTINUED THOUGH LOWER RAIN CHANCES AT
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A LINGERING NEARLY SATURATED DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, AND ELEVATED PWATS IN THE 1.75
TO 2.00 INCH RANGE, WARRANTED THE ADDITION OF MARGINAL RISK EROS
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
SUBSIDES LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEPARTS AND
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS DRIER AND WARMER AIR TO FILTER
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS MID-WEEK. WHILE A FEW POP-UP
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED AND BE
CONFINED LARGELY TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR A RELATIVE LULL IN THE RAINFALL
SUNDAY MORNING, GIVING WAY TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD BE STRONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. IT WILL BE HUMID AND MILD
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN FOLLOW A
DIURNAL CYCLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH COVERAGE GREATER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT STILL REMAINING POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. IT WILL
BE QUITE HUMID AND MUGGY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S
AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE PATTERN TURNS DRIER
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S, WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS
RANGE FROM 65 TO 70F.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
TAF PERIOD IS STARTING OFF VFR WITH MAINLY A MID-LEVEL DECK OF
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BRING IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. THE FIRST ROUND OF
SUBSTANTIVE CONVECTION WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN THIS, OPTED TO GO WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES AND DID KEEP A PROB30 FOR
LOWERING VIS AND CIGS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
MAY BE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS IN CIGS AND VIS FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFFECTS THE AREA. AGAIN THIS COULD
BRING IN AT LEAST MVFR VIS AND CIGS AT TIMES, BUT KEEPING THIS
PROB30 RIGHT NOW DUE TO THE FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE TRENDS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTS COULD BE HIGHER IF TAF
SITES ARE IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEERTSON/GREIF
AVIATION...DJ/GREIF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page