224
FXUS63 KJKL 011900
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND A BRIEF TORNADO RISK COVERS WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.
- A SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM KEEPS DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES, ALONG
WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, IN THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- SOMEWHAT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
AT 18Z AN ABNORMALLY DEEP LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST IL AND SW
IN. THE SYSTEMS WARM FRONT LOCATED SW OF THE AREA, WILL MOVE NNE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. MEANWHILE THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF LEFT OVER MORNING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. THEIR CLOUD TOPS, WARMING.
TO THE WEST, IN AN AREA OF SOME CLEARING AS SEEN ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE, STORMS HAVE INITIATED. THESE CLOUD TOPS ARE BEGINNING TO
COOL WITH THEIR DEVELOPMENT. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM SSW TO NNE INTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AREA.
THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM NASHVILLE SHOWS THE SURROUNDING ATMOSPHERE
WITH PWAT OF 2.36 INCHES. WITH AN ENVIRONMENT LIKE THIS, ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. NOT MUCH MLCAPE IS CURRENTLY
OVERHEAD (ABOUT 500 J/KG), HOWEVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AN AXIS OF
500-1500 J/KG IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER IN
REGARD TO WIND SHEAR, WITH ONLY 20-25 KTS FORECASTED. BETTER SHEAR
(30-35 KTS), LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER WEST. SO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM MOREHEAD TO CAMPTON, TO
BARBOURVILLE ARE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE SPC
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT. ALTHOUGH A BREIF TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT, THE STORM WOULD
LIKELY HAVE TO BE TRAVELING DUE NORTH TO HAVE A CHANCE (BEING
PERPENDICULAR TO THE SHEAR VECTOR). GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 5 PM AND 11 PM.
A LULL IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH
ISOLATED CHANCES MAINLY IN THE BIG SANDY AREA. WITH CLOUDED SKIES,
TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN PLACES.
SUNDAY, THE CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN IN.
THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW,
PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND STORMS. THESE STORMS AREN'T
EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S DURING THE DAY, WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST,
SHOWER WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 540 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE DEALING WITH THE DE-
EVOLUTION OF THAT TOO EARLY SYNOPTIC LOW SLOWLY WORKING EAST
THROUGH AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN AROUND WELL INTO THE START OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK - CONTINUING THE HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS - THOUGH A
MORE DIURNAL PATTERN TAKES OVER WITH TIME FOR THE CONVECTION.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD DAWNS SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK, CLOSED ~575
DAM LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA WITHIN A POSITIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY, WHERE A
BROADER 500 HPA TROUGH IS PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THIS
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL LIE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED ATOP AN
OCCLUDING ~1004 MB SURFACE LOW. WHILE THAT DOES NOT SOUND ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE, THE NAEFS AND ECMWF ENS SHOW THAT MSLP VALUES OF
THIS DEPTH FALL BELOW 1979-2009 CFSR CLIMATOLOGY, INDICATIVE OF
HOW RARE IT IS TO HAVE A DEVELOPED MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE PASSING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SYSTEM'S COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW NEAR CINCINNATI,
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR INTO TENNESSEE, AND THEN
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WHILE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE NORTHERN STREAM 500 HPA TROUGH
PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND
STEALING SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH/
CLOSING LOW, THE 31/12Z MODEL SUITE SEEMS TO BE LATCHING ONTO MORE
OF THE VORTICITY ENERGY REMAINING WITH THE CLOSED LOW AND
GYRATING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THAT SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY DEPARTS LATER IN THE WEEK ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST CONUS, AND AN ASSOCIATED BELT
OF WESTERLIES ALOFT CAPTURES THE REMNANT LOW AND SWEEPS IT AWAY.
FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TRENDS QUASI-ZONAL BY LATE WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
REMAINS NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT DRIFTS TO OVER THE MID-
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY, WHERE IT WOBBLES AND LARGELY DISSIPATES
BEFORE ITS REMNANTS ARE PULLED AWAY TO THE NORTH BY MID-WEEK. AS A
RESULT, THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE JKL CWA
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, SOME OF THE
LONGEST-RANGE CAMS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST WEAKLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO VA
AND WV. WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW LINGERING ALOFT, PWATS ARE NOW
LIKELY TO STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY, AS WELL AS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (MORE SO THAN WHAT WAS EXPECTED IN RECENT
DAYS). THE RESULT WILL BE A LOT MORE CLOUD COVER AND DIURNALLY-
MODULATED CONVECTION WITH GREATEST RAINFALL COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND CONTINUED THOUGH LOWER RAIN CHANCES AT
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A LINGERING NEARLY SATURATED DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, AND ELEVATED PWATS IN THE 1.75
TO 2.00 INCH RANGE, WARRANTED THE ADDITION OF MARGINAL RISK EROS
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
SUBSIDES LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEPARTS AND
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS DRIER AND WARMER AIR TO FILTER
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS MID-WEEK. WHILE A FEW POP-UP
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED AND BE
CONFINED LARGELY TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR A RELATIVE LULL IN THE RAINFALL
SUNDAY MORNING, GIVING WAY TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD BE STRONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. IT WILL BE HUMID AND MILD
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN FOLLOW A
DIURNAL CYCLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH COVERAGE GREATER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT STILL REMAINING POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. IT WILL
BE QUITE HUMID AND MUGGY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S
AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE PATTERN TURNS DRIER
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S, WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS
RANGE FROM 65 TO 70F.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
SOME CLEARING SKIES ACROSS KSME, KLOZ, KIOB AND SOON KJKL HAS
ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE SOME IN THOSE AREAS AND
WEST. AT PRESENT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF KSME AND MAY SOON
IMPACT THE AIRFIELD AND POTENTIALLY KLOZ. HAVE STARTED WITH
TEMPOS FOR EACH SITE. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN NOW AND THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF
AROUND 03-06Z. AREAS AROUND THESE STORMS COULD SEE VARIABLE,
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GO FROM VFR TO
MVFR OR IFR (ESPECIALLY NEAR STORMS), THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LATER TONIGHT, LOW STRATUS OR FOG MAY IMPACT TAF SITES,
AND BR WAS ADDED WITH SOME VIS REDUCTIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GEERTSON/GREIF
AVIATION...GINNICK
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