336
FXUS63 KJKL 022050
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
450 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THIS AFTERNOONS STORMS
REMAINS IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY.
- A SLOW-MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM KEEPS DAILY SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES, ALONG WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- SOMEWHAT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
AT 20Z, SATELLITE SHOWED A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
A NEARBY CLOSED LOW, LOCATED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA. THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA IN A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION, IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING.
ROUNDS OF OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. AREAS IN
THE BIG SANDY BASIN HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SEEING STRONGER
STORMS. WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE, DCAPE OF 800-1000 J/KG AND
30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS. THE SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK,
GIVING BETWEEN A 5% AND 14% CHANCE OF STORMS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 58 MPH WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT. GIVEN THAT ANY
STORMS WOULD BE FORMING IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5
INCHES AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, TORRENTIAL RAIN
LEADING TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE BIG
SANDY BASIN. A MARGINAL ERO IS ALSO BEING MAINTAINED IN THIS AREA
BY THE WPC.
THIS EVENING, CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE FOG FORMATION. WITH CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED, THE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL REMAIN SMALL, AND
TEMPERATURES WON'T HAVE TO COOL AS MUCH TO REACH THEM. WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL MIXING
EXPECTED, A HYBRID-TYPE FOG SETUP IS FAVORED. WHERE THERE IS
CLEARING HEADING INTO THE EVENING, VALLEYS MAY FOG UP QUICKER.
WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN, RIDGE-TOPS WILL BE FAVORED FOR LOW-
STRATUS/FOG CONDITIONS BEFORE SAGGING DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS (TOP-
DOWN EFFECT). THAT SAID, MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED
WITH PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT BEFORE MIXING OUT EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LOWS COOL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY, LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY LIFTING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED, WITH CHANCES
SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
TAPERING OFF BY EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SUPPRESSED, WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BEFORE COOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. PATCHY FOG
FORMATION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT, THOUGH MAY NOT COVER AS
LARGE AN AREA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE DEALING WITH THE RARE 5H
LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AS IT GRADUALLY FILLS BUT NOT BEFORE IT
KEEPS THINGS UNSETTLED FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK. A MORE ACTIVE JET STREAM TO THE NORTH FOLLOWS INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND BUT WHETHER ANY SYSTEMS CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THIS TO REACH INTO KENTUCKY AND HELP TO CLEAR OUT THE LEFTOVER
MOISTURE REMAINS TO BE SEEN. AS SUCH, WE ANTICIPATED UNSETTLED
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK THOUGH ADHERING TO MORE OF A
DIURNAL PATTERN.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN STAGNANT AND AMPLIFIED OVER THE
CONUS NEXT WEEK. TWO STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
BE CENTERING OVER BERMUDA AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH TIME.
MEANWHILE, A SLOW-MOVING TROUGH WILL INITIALLY BE LAID OUT NEAR OR
JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS, KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN BY MID-
WEEK, AS HIGHER GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS SPREAD WEST TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH CENTER. IN TANDEM, HIGHER
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL WORK EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH CENTER. ADDITIONALLY, CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS FROM A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT WILL BE GYRING OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ANY FRONTAL SYSTEMS REMAINING GENERALLY NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AND WHILE DIURNALLY-INFLUENCED POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL START OUT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH, KEEPING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. PWATS WILL NOT BE EXCESSIVELY HIGH (LREF MEAN
VALUES OF 50-75TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY); HOWEVER, HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL KEEP
AT LEAST A MARGINAL HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IN PLACE AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY AUGUST,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S, WITH
ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS. AS WE COME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGING ALOFT, RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY DECREASE, WITH
CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP A BIT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL
ALSO MODERATE THROUGH THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70, WITH HIGHER
HUMIDITY LEVELS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
A COLD FRONT IS LYING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE JKL CWA. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP FOR MOST TAF SITES BY MIDDAY
- DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. THE STRONGEST OF THE STORMS SHOULD
STAY EAST OF ALL BUT THE KSJS TERMINAL. LOW CLOUDS AND SUB IFR
VISIBILITY IN FOG IS ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT. AWAY FROM ANY
STORMS, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JKL/GREIF
AVIATION...GINNICK/GREIF
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