877
FXUS63 KJKL 210701 AAC
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
301 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY.
- SOME STORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE
STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE TO START THE
NEW WEEK, WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY
GRIDS ALONG WITH A TOUCH OF THE LATEST CAMS FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTION SNEAKING OUT OF TENNESSEE AND AFFECTING FAR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE AREA INTO DAWN. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE
HWO, SAFS, AND ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO CAUSE A FEW
SHOWERS TO SHOW UP ON THE RADAR SCOPE - THREATENING TO KICK OFF
SOME OCCASIONAL THUNDER. THIS BOUNDARY IS APPARENTLY JUST NORTH
OF THE OFFICE AND WILL KEEP A SMALL THREAT FOR RAIN IN THE
FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF IT HEADING INTO THE LATE EVENING.
OTHERWISE, UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S NORTH AND IN THE LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTH.
MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT WINDS, DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE STILL STICKY
RANGE OF THE MID TO UPPER 60S NORTH AND THE UNCOMFORTABLE LOW TO
MID 70S SOUTH. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS AS WELL AS TWEAKING
THE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT PER THE RADAR AND MOST CURRENT
SOLUTIONS FROM THE CAMS. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS
AND ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
A COLD FRONT BENEATH A BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS TRYING TO
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS
LOSING MOMENTUM AND STRUGGLING. IT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY IN
A POORLY DEFINED FORM AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS LINGERING INTO
THE DAY TODAY INHIBITED DESTABILIZATION AND LARGELY PREVENTED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT A FEW SMALL SHOWERS HAVE
POPPED UP OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, WITH
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL DURING THE
NIGHT, MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING AFTER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS, MAINLY IN OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS VERY WEAK WAVES RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. WITH FEATURES BEING SO WEAK, THERE IS NOT
A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF THE FORECAST. A RELATIVE LULL IS
SEEN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT TARGETS THE
AREA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE, CONVECTION WILL BE
EXITING FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM DEPARTS.
MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES,
WITH AN ADDITIONAL COLD FRONT DRAPED TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THIS LOW
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD, ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM, THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY, OWING TO LIMITED
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY; DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE
50S, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH BEYOND THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW A MODEST RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO DEVELOP. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS SLIGHTLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS COOLING, BUT GIVEN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS, IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT LOW TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
INTO THE MID 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS, WITH TYPICAL FOG FORMATION.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS EASTERN
KENTUCKY FINDS ITSELF ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PROGRESSING
TROUGH. WITHIN INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD SPARK ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLES STILL FAVOR AN
ANOMALOUSLY DRY ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TUESDAY OVERALL. GIVEN LIMITED
AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES, POPS
REMAIN LOW, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS
INTRODUCED. ALTHOUGH THIS HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINALLY HIGHER CONSENSUS
REGARDING MODEST RAIN CHANCES, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW,
AND ANY COVERAGE DETAILS WILL BEAR REFINING IN THE COMING DAYS.
BARRING CONVECTIVE INTERFERENCE, HIGHS SHOULD STILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ON
TUESDAY, THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 80S.
MORE ROBUST RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. IN TURN, DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL LEAD TO BROAD HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO RISE
BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. THIS, IN COMBINATION WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY, WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30-40% ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
SOME CIRRUS AND DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION IN THE TN VALLEY
WAS DRIFTING TOWARD THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED AT
ISSUANCE TIME OUTSIDE OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND NEAR WHERE
PRECIPITATION WAS MORE SUBSTANTIAL DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
MEANWHILE IN VALLEY LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST,
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR IF NOT VLIFR IN SOME CASES WERE
REPORTED INCLUDING AT KSJS WHICH WAS REPORTING BELOW AIRPORT MINS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NORTH FROM THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF TN AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF
COUNTIES GENERALLY FROM KSME TO KLOZ TO KPBX AND SOUTH. ANY OF
THAT ACTIVITY WOULD BRING BRING BRIEF ISOLATED IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS AND IF LOW AND MID CLOUDS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH A REPRIEVE
FROM REDUCTIONS IN FOG FOR THOSE AREAS. NORTHERN AND EASTERN
VALLEYS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MAINLY IFR TO VLIFR REDUCTIONS THROUGH
12Z IN FOG WITH THE FOG LIFTING AND DISSIPATING THROUGH 13Z OR
14Z. A PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
INITIALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IT MAY LIFT BACK INTO SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND DURING PEAK HEATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED NEAR AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
KSME TO KJKL TO KSJS LINE MAINLY BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z. AS FOR
WINDS, OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...JP
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