455
FXUS63 KJKL 221850
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
250 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY.
- SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
- NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL THEN ARRIVE TO START
THE NEW WEEK, WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
AT 1845Z, SATELLITE SHOWS A MIX OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE INITIATED TO THE NORTH ALONG A WEAK
DISTURBANCE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE SOUTH
TO THE KENTUCKY-WEST VIRGINIA LINE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, DRIVEN BY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A DEEPENING LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS
DAYTIME HEATING AIDS DESTABILIZATION, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID-AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
LOOKING AT THE 12Z RAP THIS EVENING, A REPRESENTATIVE SOUNDING
NEAR JKL DEPICTED AN ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SURFACE BUOYANCY
(2400 J/KG), HIGH DCAPE (1000-1100 J/KG), AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (0-3 KM LAPSE RATE OF 7.2 DEG C/KM). IN ADDITION, 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR AT 40 KTS ALONG WITH MUCAPE SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2500 J/KG
THIS WILL HELP SUSTAIN ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. WITH BRN SHEAR AT 18
M2/S2, THE ENVIRONMENT AS A WHOLE FAVORS MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH
SOME SUPERCELLULAR ELEMENTS. HIGH DCAPE ALONG WITH STEEP 0-3 KM
LAPSE RATES, 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING GUSTS OF MOST LIKELY
45-60 MPH. HAIL WILL BE A SECONDARY HAZARD, THOUGH SEVERAL
LIMITING FACTORS--SUCH AS ANEMIC UPDRAFTS FROM POOR MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (6 DEG C/KM) AND AN ELEVATED FREEZING LEVEL (13,000
FEET)--MAY CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL MELTING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
THE HODOGRAPH REMAINS GENERALLY STRAIGHT UP TO 200-300 MB (9 KM)
FOLLOWED BY A DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO THE NNW, WHICH COULD EJECT HAIL
EMBRYOS ALOFT, FURTHER LIMITING HAIL SIZE. HAIL WILL BE ISOLATED
AND COULD REACH QUARTER SIZE, BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SMALLER. SPC
HAS PLACED ALL BUT WAYNE COUNTY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EAST OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING,
LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT, WITH VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAIN FAVORED
FOR DENSE FOG. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY, BRINGING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ALONG WITH
COOLER WEATHER. DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE PLEASANT
WEATHER MORE REMINISCENT OF EARLY FALL THAN LATE AUGUST. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SIT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH A RELATIVELY
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO. MEANWHILE,
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE MIDWEST, WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY; THIS WILL WORK TO MAINTAIN
THE COOLER AND DRIER POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS TO BEGIN THE WEEK.
THESE LIGHT WINDS AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH TYPICAL VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. MOS GUIDANCE COULD BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS FOR SOME SPOTS, GIVEN LINGERING MOISTURE, AND LOW 50S FOR THE
COLDEST SPOTS MAY BE OVERDONE. FOR MOST OR ALL LOCATIONS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO THE UPPER 50S OR AROUND 60 ON THE RIDGETOPS. DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
SOMEWHAT. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD
WORK TO KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THANKFULLY, CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS BLISSFULLY LOW IN THE MID 50S.
OVERNIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE 50S, WITH A
SIMILAR MODEST RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF
RIVER VALLEY FOG.
ON TUESDAY, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SOMEWHAT. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA, WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY
IN A REGION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MANY MODELS DEPICT A
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THIS FLOW, WITH FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES; AT PRESENT, THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS
THAT, AT BEST, THIS ENERGY DELIVERS A GLANCING BLOW TO THE
FORECAST AREA, RELEGATING ANY RAIN CHANCES TO TENNESSEE. HOWEVER,
SOME DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS DO SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM COULD BE POSSIBLE IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. EVEN SO,
A DRIER SOLUTION CURRENTLY APPEARS FAR MORE LIKELY, AND NBM POPS
ARE ACCORDINGLY VERY LOW.
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW ORIGINALLY OVER OKLAHOMA TRANSLATES
NORTHEASTWARD. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL ATTEMPT
TO LIFT TOWARDS THE AREA; HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LOOM TO THE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THIS COLD FRONT, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW
FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN PROGRESS BEFORE IT IS OVERTAKEN.
BROADLY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASED MOISTURE
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS; HOWEVER, ANY FORECAST DETAILS
WILL REMAIN DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION, PROGRESSION, AND TIMING OF
THESE BOUNDARIES, AND FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
A COLD FRONT AND DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH DURING PEAK HEATING
AND RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BETWEEN ABOUT 18Z
AND 03Z. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40KT RANGE IF NOT LOCALLY
HIGHER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. PROB30 GROUPS WERE INCLUDED
FOR A FEW HOURS AT ALL SITES FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ON
STATION FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION COULD BRING BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO IFR IF NOT LOWER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WSW TO
W AT 5 TO 10KT BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. WINDS WILL TREND TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AND SLACKEN. SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORED AFTER 06Z AND IFR OR LOWER REDUCTIONS
FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF KSYM AND KIOB ARE POSSIBLE PER GUIDANCE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...HEF
AVIATION...GINNICK/JP
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