135
FXUS63 KJKL 222057
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
457 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- SOME STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE
STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
- NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL THEN ARRIVE TO START
THE NEW WEEK, WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
AT 1845Z, SATELLITE SHOWS A MIX OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE INITIATED TO THE NORTH ALONG A WEAK
DISTURBANCE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE SOUTH
TO THE KENTUCKY-WEST VIRGINIA LINE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, DRIVEN BY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A DEEPENING LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS
DAYTIME HEATING AIDS DESTABILIZATION, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID-AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
LOOKING AT THE 12Z RAP THIS EVENING, A REPRESENTATIVE SOUNDING
NEAR JKL DEPICTED AN ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SURFACE BUOYANCY
(2400 J/KG), HIGH DCAPE (1000-1100 J/KG), AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (0-3 KM LAPSE RATE OF 7.2 DEG C/KM). IN ADDITION, 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR AT 40 KTS ALONG WITH MUCAPE SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2500 J/KG
THIS WILL HELP SUSTAIN ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. WITH BRN SHEAR AT 18
M2/S2, THE ENVIRONMENT AS A WHOLE FAVORS MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH
SOME SUPERCELLULAR ELEMENTS. HIGH DCAPE ALONG WITH STEEP 0-3 KM
LAPSE RATES, 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING GUSTS OF MOST LIKELY
45-60 MPH. HAIL WILL BE A SECONDARY HAZARD, THOUGH SEVERAL
LIMITING FACTORS--SUCH AS ANEMIC UPDRAFTS FROM POOR MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (6 DEG C/KM) AND AN ELEVATED FREEZING LEVEL (13,000
FEET)--MAY CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL MELTING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
THE HODOGRAPH REMAINS GENERALLY STRAIGHT UP TO 200-300 MB (9 KM)
FOLLOWED BY A DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO THE NNW, WHICH COULD EJECT HAIL
EMBRYOS ALOFT, FURTHER LIMITING HAIL SIZE. HAIL WILL BE ISOLATED
AND COULD REACH QUARTER SIZE, BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SMALLER. SPC
HAS PLACED ALL BUT WAYNE COUNTY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EAST OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING,
LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT, WITH VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAIN FAVORED
FOR DENSE FOG. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY, BRINGING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ALONG WITH
COOLER WEATHER. DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS WITH QUIET WEATHER MONDAY MORNING. THE
22/12Z MODEL SUITE ANALYSIS SHOWS MEAN TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS AROUND A PARENT ~558 DAM LOW SPINNING NEAR/OVER
THE OTTAWA VALLEY. A SMALLER UPSTREAM CLOSED ~570 DAM LOW IS
TRANSITING FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE, AN
~596 DAM UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR/OVER NEW MEXICO.
TRANSLATING DOWN TO THE SURFACE, AN ~1005 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED UNDER THE PARENT LOW BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND
LAKE ONTARIO. ITS COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST AND THEN ARCS SOUTHWEST TO WEST THROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES BEFORE EXTENDING BACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE, CRADLED IN THE ARC OF THE
COLD FRONT, EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO TO OVER THE
COMMONWEALTH. FARTHER UPSTREAM, AN ~1005 MB SURFACE LOW IS PASSING
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AS THE FIRST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS PARENT LOW
SHIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
SOUTHEAST, CRESTING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH PWATS CLOSE TO 0.75
INCHES. WITH TIME, A WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO EASE BACK NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH, ALLOWING PWATS TO RECOVER BACK TOWARD 1.5
INCHES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, HEIGHTS WILL FALL SLIGHTLY AGAIN
MID- TO LATE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES DIGS SOUTHEAST, OPENS, AND REINFORCES TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
WILL SUPPORT THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO EASTERN
CANADA WHILE ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DRIER WEATHER MAY FOLLOW A
SECOND COLD FRONT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR FAIR AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F AND HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. FOG IS LIKELY IN THE MAINSTEM RIVER
VALLEYS LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING. LOW TO MEDIUM
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORM OF DIURNALLY MODULATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE FIRST COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION, BEFORE TRENDING
DRIER BY SATURDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS RANGING MAINLY IN THE MID 80S
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS MODERATE INTO THE 60S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
A COLD FRONT AND DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH DURING PEAK HEATING
AND RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BETWEEN ABOUT 18Z
AND 03Z. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40KT RANGE IF NOT LOCALLY
HIGHER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. PROB30 GROUPS WERE INCLUDED
FOR A FEW HOURS AT ALL SITES FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ON
STATION FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION COULD BRING BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO IFR IF NOT LOWER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WSW TO
W AT 5 TO 10KT BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. WINDS WILL TREND TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AND SLACKEN. SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORED AFTER 06Z AND IFR OR LOWER REDUCTIONS
FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF KSYM AND KIOB ARE POSSIBLE PER GUIDANCE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GINNICK/JP
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