378
FXUS63 KJKL 230928
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
528 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT TO START THE NEW WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AROUND
MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN ENLONGATED UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO
THE CAROLINAS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN NM WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS/PLAINS. DRIER AIR HAS BEEN GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY AND EASTERN KY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THOUGH THE DRIER AIR
HAS MADE A BIT LESS PROGRESS INTO THE MORE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS AS A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY FROM THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS.
RATHER EXTENSIVE FOG MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS HAS SPREAD INTO SOME NO
VALLEY LOCATIONS. SOME OBSERVATION SITES SUCH AS KEKQ, KSME, AND
KI35 HAVE RECENTLY REPORTED DENSE FOG AND FOG APPEARS ON THE DENSE
SIDE AT SOME KY MESONET STATION LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ON A FEW OF
THE KYTC CAMERAS. WITH THAT IN MIND, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS
FOR FOG OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR.
TODAY AND TONIGHT, GRADUAL 500 MB HEIGHT RISES ARE ANTICIPATED AS
THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SECTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS EAST
OF THE COMMONWEALTH. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SFC RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND INTO SECTIONS OF
THE MID OH VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. A DRY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL BE USHERED INTO EASTERN KY WITH PW PER THE 00Z HREF
EXPECTED IN THE 5TH TO 20TH PERCENTILE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY OTHER THAN DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS FOLLOWING THE LIFTING AND DISSIPATION OF THE FOG
THROUGH THE 9 AM TO 10 AM EDT TIMEFRAME THIS MORNING. MIXING
SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS DROPPING A BIT BELOW NBM DETERMINISTIC
VALUES. THIS AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE COOLER AS WELL AS DRIER AND THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. THE PATTERN SHOULD AGAIN FAVOR VALLEY FOG FORMATION ALONG
THE RIVERS, LARGER CREEKS, AND AREA LAKES TONIGHT. THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS 52 OR 53 TONIGHT WITH THE
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOLID MID 50S FOR
VALLEYS WHERE FOG FORMS AND RIDGETOP LOCATIONS ON THE ORDER OF THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. ON MONDAY, 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOULD CONTINUE A
GENERAL UPWARD TREND AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER EAST OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS AND UPPER
RIDGING CENTERED IN THE NM VICINITY BUILDS IN SECTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS/PLAINS AND TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. ONE MORE SHORTWAVES
WILL BE MOVING AROUND THIS RIDGING AND NEAR THE MID MS VALLEY
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS FOR MONDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
QUEBEC AND AN AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TO THE CAROLINAS TO VA WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
BE CENTERED OVER NM AND EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CONUS
AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS/PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ALSO AT THAT POINT, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE NEAR
THE SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH
SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN MT AND EASTER WY BORDER AREA WITH THE
DAKOTAS. FURTHER WEST, AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM
WEST OF THE COAST OF BC TO WEST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE, A FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY
EVENING WHILE A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXTEND FOR THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE NEAR THE MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT, A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND
THE RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND COMMONWEALTH BUT IT
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH MAINLY JUST SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. SOME HEIGHT RISES AT 500 MB ARE PROGGED DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY, BEFORE NEAR NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES OR SOME SUBTLE 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING
REMAINS FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS/EASTERN
SEABOARD AND THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED IN SOUTHERN NM
THOUGHT IT IS PROGGED TO BUILD NORTH THROUGH SECTIONS OF THE
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LOW INITIALLY JUST NORTH OF ND SHOULD
TREK GRADUALLY INTO ONTARIO AND NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS LEAVES NORTHWEST TO WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH AND LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. DURING THIS TIME, A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND BECOME CENTERED IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THE
RIDGING CENTERED IN NW SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL/BAROCLINIC
ZONE INITIALLY SOUTH OF EASTERN KY WITH A SFC WAVE TRACKING TO
NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WHILE FURTHER EAST THE BOUNDARY LIFTS INTO THE TN VALLEY AS A WARM
FRONT AND APPROACHES. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BIT OF INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND SOME CLOUD COVER AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS, WITH PW ON THE ORDER OF 20TH TO 30TH PERCENTILE IF
NOT MOST OF THE TIME LOWER PER LREF, IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ON RIDGES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY
FOG ALONG THE RIVERS, LARGER CREEKS, AND AREAS LAKES BOTH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY TREND CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST.
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY TO THE OZARKS REGIONS SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LOW
INITIALLY OVER ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES FURTHER EAST AND BEGINS TO INTERACT AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY VICINITY. THIS LEAVES AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAY AREA SOUTH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TO SOUTHEAST BY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BECOMES CENTERED FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER
AXIS NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO MT AND ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN
THAT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS WY AND EASTERN MT TO SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE
SAME TIME, AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO BC WITH THE TRAILING TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SECTIONS OF THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA AT MIDWEEK THE SFC WAVE SHOULD TRACK OVER OR NEAR
EASTERN KY WHILE THE SFC LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES REACHES THE
NORTHEAST AND SENDS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KY
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER EASTERN KY THAT MAY TEND TO PEAK ON
THURSDAY NEAR AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
IS FOR A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST
WITH A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC INTO SECTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE HAS A TREND OF RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS
AND MORE OF A ZONAL/WESTERLY FLOW AT THAT POINT WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGES CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TO END THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME INITIAL SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RISING HEIGHTS
LIKELY SUPPRESSES CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
CLEARING SKIES FOLLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
HAS LED TO FOG FORMATION IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. SOME OF THIS IS DENSE IN SPOTS. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW EXTENSIVE IT WILL BE, WITH KIOB AND
KSYM MORE ROBUSTLY INTO THE DRIER POST COLD FRONT AIRMASS AND
SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED. THE FOG IN THE VICINITY OF THE REMAINING
TAF SITES SPECIALLY KJKL AND KSJS MAY LIFT INTO THOSE LOCATION AS
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEEPENS AFTER AROUND 08Z AND THE SAME MAY
OCCUR FOR KSME AND KLOZ. LAMP GUIDANCE HAD IFR OR LOWER REDUCTIONS
INTO KJKL FOR A FEW HOURS AND BRIEFLY FOR KSJS. GENERALLY
INCLUDED MVFR REDUCTIONS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT KSME AND KLOZ
AND FOLLOWED THIS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS. FOG SHOULD
LIFT AND DISSIPATE IN MOST LOCATION BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAILING TO END THE PERIOD. VALLEY FOG MAY
AGAIN DEVELOP BY THE 04Z AND 06Z TIMEFRAME, BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
AFFECT THE TAF SITES.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
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