356
FXUS63 KJKL 231923
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
323 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD
FRONT TO START THE NEW WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AROUND
MIDWEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING INTO KENTUCKY FROM
THE WEST. THIS IS WORKING TO CLEAR THE MORNING VALLEY FOG WHILE IT
BRINGS IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING IN THE MID UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MEANWHILE, AMID
LIGHT WINDS, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S NORTH AND IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO
ADD IN THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG
WITH A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS AND ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN ENLONGATED UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO
THE CAROLINAS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN NM WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS/PLAINS. DRIER AIR HAS BEEN GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY AND EASTERN KY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THOUGH THE DRIER AIR
HAS MADE A BIT LESS PROGRESS INTO THE MORE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS AS A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY FROM THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS.
RATHER EXTENSIVE FOG MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS HAS SPREAD INTO SOME NO
VALLEY LOCATIONS. SOME OBSERVATION SITES SUCH AS KEKQ, KSME, AND
KI35 HAVE RECENTLY REPORTED DENSE FOG AND FOG APPEARS ON THE DENSE
SIDE AT SOME KY MESONET STATION LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ON A FEW OF
THE KYTC CAMERAS. WITH THAT IN MIND, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS
FOR FOG OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR.
TODAY AND TONIGHT, GRADUAL 500 MB HEIGHT RISES ARE ANTICIPATED AS
THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SECTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS EAST
OF THE COMMONWEALTH. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SFC RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND INTO SECTIONS OF
THE MID OH VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. A DRY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL BE USHERED INTO EASTERN KY WITH PW PER THE 00Z HREF
EXPECTED IN THE 5TH TO 20TH PERCENTILE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY OTHER THAN DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS FOLLOWING THE LIFTING AND DISSIPATION OF THE FOG
THROUGH THE 9 AM TO 10 AM EDT TIMEFRAME THIS MORNING. MIXING
SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS DROPPING A BIT BELOW NBM DETERMINISTIC
VALUES. THIS AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE COOLER AS WELL AS DRIER AND THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. THE PATTERN SHOULD AGAIN FAVOR VALLEY FOG FORMATION ALONG
THE RIVERS, LARGER CREEKS, AND AREA LAKES TONIGHT. THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS 52 OR 53 TONIGHT WITH THE
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOLID MID 50S FOR
VALLEYS WHERE FOG FORMS AND RIDGETOP LOCATIONS ON THE ORDER OF THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. ON MONDAY, 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOULD CONTINUE A
GENERAL UPWARD TREND AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER EAST OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS AND UPPER
RIDGING CENTERED IN THE NM VICINITY BUILDS IN SECTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS/PLAINS AND TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. ONE MORE SHORTWAVES
WILL BE MOVING AROUND THIS RIDGING AND NEAR THE MID MS VALLEY
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS FOR MONDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
CLOSED 500 MB HIGH RANGING FROM 594-597 DM CENTERED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
MODELED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NEW ENGLAND.
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, TUESDAY WILL BE FAIR AND QUIET WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 50S, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S FEELING
A BIT LESS HUMID COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. OVERNIGHT, LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY AID IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING
IN TYPICAL FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. WITH VALLEYS POSSIBLY
DECOUPLING AT NIGHT, TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS MAY COOL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S, WHILE RIDGETOPS COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S, TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LOW MODELED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT, ENDING UP IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO FORM IN THE GREAT
LAKES VICINITY. SOME HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY WORK INTO THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING, AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND OZARKS,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, PEAKING THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BY FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PASSED EAST OF THE
COMMONWEALTH, WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, LEAVING BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN US. LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE DEPARTING TROUGH MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE VA/KY BORDER. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS POOR BY NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DIVERGES, WITH ONE
SCENARIO DEPICTING A SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. CONVERSELY, AN
ALTERNATE SCENARIO TRACKS THE SHORTWAVE FARTHER NORTH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. NBM HAS MAINTAINED LOW-END ISOLATED POPS FOR SUNDAY
(15-20%) TO REFLECT THIS LOW-CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. THE CPC 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK SUPPORTS THIS THINKING.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
VALLEY FOG IS FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. IT WILL
BRING LOCALIZED IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS, PROBABLY AFFECTING A FEW
TAF SITES AT TIMES AROUND DAWN. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL
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