573
FXUS63 KJKL 240820
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
420 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR PREVAILS EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH BELOW
NORMAL MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES.
- TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, LEADING TO A POTENTIAL FOR STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY -
DOMINATING THE WEATHER FOR KENTUCKY THIS NIGHT. THIS HAS MEANT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. AS SUCH, AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPED IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS AND THEY HAVE BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. IN ADDITION, A SMALL
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE SHOWED UP WITH READINGS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE LOWER SHELTERED SPOTS TO THE LOW
AND MID 60S ON TOP OF THE HILLS. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEP CLOSED LOW 5H TOUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WHILE STOUT RIDGING IS NOTED OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
STATE AND WESTERN TEXAS. THIS PLACES EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THE
SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE NORTHEAST TROUGH - A LOCATION THAT KEEPS A
STEADY STREAM OF AIR RUNNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERHEAD
AT MID LEVELS. THE TROUGH WILL FILL AND LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEK ALLOWING THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO SLOW A BIT WITH
TIME WHILE ANY ENERGY PASSING THROUGH IS MOSTLY UNCONSOLIDATED
AND BENIGN - A FAR CRY FROM THOSE THAT SPAWNED THE MCS ACTIVITY OF
THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. ONLY LATE IN THE PERIOD DO WE START TO
SEE A MINOR TROUGH DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A
POTENTIAL IMPACT FOR OUR AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. ON ACCOUNT OF THE
RELATIVELY SMALL SPREAD IN THE MODELS' SOLUTIONS FOR THE OVERALL
PATTERN ALOFT, THE UNADJUSTED NBM DATA WAS USED FOR THE BULK OF
THE GRIDS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER, SOME ENHANCEMENTS
WERE MADE TO THE AFTERNOON DEW POINTS AND TERRAIN DIFFERENCES AT
NIGHT GIVEN THE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE. POPS WERE LEFT NEAR ZERO
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER EACH DAY WILL FEATURE TERRIFIC CONDITIONS WITH
COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE ONCE THE
EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG CLEARS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE TODAY AND NEAR NORMAL FOR TUESDAY. AT NIGHT, LOOK FOR VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPING AND THOSE VALLEYS TO RUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
RIDGE TOPS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL LOW
TEMPERATURES.
THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE TO INCLUDE
THE IMPACTS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT FOR TERRAIN
DISTINCTION AND ALSO SOME DRY AIR AVAILABLE TO MIXDOWN EACH
AFTERNOON - LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND RH. LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO
IMPROVE POPS OR QPF WAS NOTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD OPENS, A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SIT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH TROUGHING IN THE EAST.
WITHIN THIS BROADER TROUGHING, A RELATIVELY VERTICALLY STACKED
CLOSED LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER ONTARIO, ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS LOW (ROUGHLY DRAPED FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS). AS THIS LOW PROGRESSES TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL ALSO
PROGRESS EAST. A BROAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY, INTENSIFIED BY A SHORTWAVE THAT MAY APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONCURRENTLY,
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW ORIGINALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE NORTHEAST, WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARD
TENNESSEE. ALTHOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY, THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THE LOW, WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THUS, THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH WARMER WEATHER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS.
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S, MARKING A RETURN TO
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AND WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING BACK INTO THE 60S, IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID, TOO.
FOLLOWING A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL TICK UP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN LOW
TRANSLATES EASTWARD AND ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY, ALTHOUGH WITH SHEAR REMAINING WEAK (WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 20-25 KTS), MORE ROBUST STORM ORGANIZATION
WILL BE LACKING. WITH THE PARENT LOW SO FAR NORTH, FRONTAL FORCING
WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY WEAK, WITH A BARELY PERCEPTIBLE
TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY
THE TIME IT APPROACHES EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE FACTORS WILL KEEP
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SCATTERED OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED THE AREA, MARKING A
RETURN TO A DRIER PATTERN. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA; MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE
EXPANDED EASTWARD SOMEWHAT, WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY ZONAL ALOFT AS THE TROUGH
LIFTS NORTHWARD. GIVEN THIS PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD, WITH FORECAST
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WHERE THE RIDGING INFLUENCE IS THE WEAKEST; OTHERWISE, RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE
MOST NOTABLE WEATHER BEING TYPICAL VALLEY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
VALLEY FOG WILL SPREAD EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING LOCALIZED IFR
OR WORSE CONDITIONS, PROBABLY AFFECTING THE KLOZ AND KSME TAF
SITES FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND DAWN. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF
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