287
FXUS63 KJKL 091945
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING,
ANYWHERE NORTHEAST OF I-75.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND, AS THE
FRONT STALLS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
AS OF 1930Z, SOME MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH EVEN A FEW SHOWERS DOTTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8-12 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH THE CURRENT SHOWER
ACTIVITY. FAIR SKIES PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW VALLEYS TO
DECOUPLE SOMEWHAT, YIELDING RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS PRIOR TO
ACTIVE WEATHER. VALLEY LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S,
WHILE RIDGE TOPS REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S. SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN SOUTHERN VALLEYS, FURTHEST FROM THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM.
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST, OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS
PRECEDING THE FRONT WILL BEGIN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS, REACHING AROUND OR ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THE SUSPECTED TIME OF ARRIVAL
(AROUND 3 AM), SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SURFACE INVERSION, AND A
LACK OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING. RATHER THAN SEVERE SURFACE WINDS, THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND
WARM CLOUD-BASE PROCESSES PRIMARILY FAVORS HIGH RAINFALL EFFICIENCY,
MAKING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED URBAN OR FLASH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THE WPC HAS NOTED IN THEIR DISCUSSION THAT 850-MB
FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, ALSO SUPPORTING TRAINING POTENTIAL.
THEY HAVE PLACED AREAS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF I-75 IN A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE RAINFALL OVER AN INCH, WITH THE 12Z GRAND
ENSEMBLE FROM THE HREF INDICATING A 50-70% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. DURING RAINFALL, LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER 8 PM THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 609 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. RIDGING STARTS OUT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS WELL AS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WHILE FASTER
AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. A NOTABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
WILL CRUISE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND BY
FRIDAY. TROUGHING WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG
THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. MEANWHILE, A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PROPAGATE ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS FEATURE
SWINGS EAST, MORE PROMINENT RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN ACTIVE START ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALREADY IN THE
AREA AND CONVECTION LIKELY ONGOING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
WILL OCCUR NORTH OF KY-80, WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TREND
SEEN IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. PWATS WILL PEAK NEAR 2", ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ALIGNING MORE PARALLEL WITH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AS SUCH, SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY. AS INSTABILITY WANES AND THE OVERALL FORCING
DIMINISH, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN LOCALES ON
FRIDAY, WITH A RESURGENCE OF LIKELY POPS SEEN GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF KY-80. HIGHS WILL RETREAT CLOSER TO NORMAL
TEMPORARILY. WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAKER
TROUGHING ALOFT ON SATURDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO ALLOW
FOR ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY,
HIGHER POPS WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING IN ALOFT, KEEPING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MORE LIMITED. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL ALSO
MEAN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS, WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS,
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE UNDER VFR CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THIS
EVENING. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
DO SO THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDING A COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA AROUND AND AFTER 06Z. PROB30 AND
TEMPO GROUPS ARE IN THE TAFS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY;
SYM AND IOB ARE THE ONLY TAF SITES CARRYING A PROB30 FOR TS.
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL DROP INTO MVFR FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION
WORKING SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JKL/HAL
AVIATION...GINNICK
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