105
FXUS63 KJKL 100744
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
344 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING NORTHEAST OF I-75.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND, AS THE
FRONT STALLS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 824 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
TRIMMED LOW-END POPS AND SKY COVER FROM THE FAR NORTH COUNTIES
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND DELAYED ARRIVAL OF POPS FROM THE
NORTHWEST A FEW HOURS, ALL BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED AND MODEL
TRENDS. OTHERWISE, THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS UPDATED
WITH THE LATEST HOURLY OBSERVATIONS USED AS THE INITIALIZATION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
AS OF 1930Z, SOME MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH EVEN A FEW SHOWERS DOTTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8-12 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH THE CURRENT SHOWER
ACTIVITY. FAIR SKIES PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW VALLEYS TO
DECOUPLE SOMEWHAT, YIELDING RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS PRIOR TO
ACTIVE WEATHER. VALLEY LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S,
WHILE RIDGE TOPS REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S. SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN SOUTHERN VALLEYS, FURTHEST FROM THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM.
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST, OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS
PRECEDING THE FRONT WILL BEGIN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS, REACHING AROUND OR ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THE SUSPECTED TIME OF ARRIVAL
(AROUND 3 AM), SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SURFACE INVERSION, AND A
LACK OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING. RATHER THAN SEVERE SURFACE WINDS, THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND
WARM CLOUD-BASE PROCESSES PRIMARILY FAVORS HIGH RAINFALL EFFICIENCY,
MAKING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED URBAN OR FLASH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THE WPC HAS NOTED IN THEIR DISCUSSION THAT 850-MB
FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, ALSO SUPPORTING TRAINING POTENTIAL.
THEY HAVE PLACED AREAS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF I-75 IN A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE RAINFALL OVER AN INCH, WITH THE 12Z GRAND
ENSEMBLE FROM THE HREF INDICATING A 50-70% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. DURING RAINFALL, LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER 8 PM THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS REGARDING THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW
WILL MODULATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS, WHILE RIDGING
GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATES AND EXPANDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE U.S. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED
FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER BACK TOWARDS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL FIND ITSELF IN AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND, AS
TROUGHING IS MAINTAINED ALOFT, AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS FAVORED A SLOWER
TRANSITION TO INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS STILL POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, MORE DECISIVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
ALOFT, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE ABOVE NORMAL HEAT AND
HUMIDITY, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S, AND EVEN A
SOME LOWER 90S AT TIMES. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO LIKELY EXCEED 70
DEGREES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BROADEN AND PIVOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
PASSING SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO DRIVE THE NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER UPTICK IN POPS
BY WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS PRETTY LOW THIS FAR
OUT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHERN OH, WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL KY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WERE PRESENT IN MOST PLACES, ALL CEILINGS AND REPORTED WERE VFR.
THERE WAS A TOUCH OF VALLEY FOG, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST KY, WITH SOME
LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS (BUT NOT AT TAF SITES).
THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO THE JKL
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST
LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW THINGS
ACTUALLY PLAY OUT IS NOT VERY HIGH. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BRING LOCALIZED IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
WHEN/WHERE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY POOR PREVAILING CONDITIONS
IN TAFS, WITH ONLY PROB30 AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR BEING USED.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...HAL
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