683
FXUS63 KJKL 101918
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
318 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING EAST OF I-75.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND, AS THE
FRONT STALLS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST FOLLOWING
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA
WAS ALSO INCORPORATED INTO THE T/TD AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM. THERE MAY BE A RESURGENCE IN
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO INCORPORATED THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM AROUND THE AREA. A COLD FRONT COMING OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
THE EVENING. OFF AND ON RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT RAIN BANDS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
A WEAK, SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED LARGELY EAST/WEST
THROUGH IL, IN, AND OH EARLY THIS MORNING. IT IS CREEPING SOUTH AS
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIPPLE THROUGH IN FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. THE NEXT WAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS
FROM OK TO MN. THERE IS ALSO AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND, WITH ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR PRECIP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ADVECTION OF
WARM, MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS FUELING ONGOING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHERN OH, WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL KY MAKING ITS WAY MORE SO INTO EASTERN KY
PRESENTLY.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY EVER SO SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER KY. CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND
POSITIONING OF UPCOMING PRECIP IS REMAINS LIMITED. IN GENERAL,
THE GREATEST POP IN THE NEAR TERM IS TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE
UPPER JET THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
WITH TIME. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS AND
APPROACH US FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, AND WITH THE FRONT IN THE
AREA, STILL KEEP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE 2",
ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING OF CONVECTION AS WELL,
THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT'S BEEN A WHILE
SINCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND 1 HOUR FFG IS MOSTLY IN THE 2-2.5"
RANGE. THIS WOULD INITIALLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO
CONCERNS, BUT SHOULD MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION HIT THE SAME
AREAS, WOULDN'T RULE OUT SOME PROBLEMS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
MODEL SUITES ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WEAKER
WAVE WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING IN THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR AND INCREASED PWAT VALUES
IN THE 1.75 TO NEARLY 2 INCH RANGE, WE COULD SEE A RENEWED THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
GIVEN THIS, WPC DOES KEEP US IN A ISOLATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ON
SATURDAY. THEN BY SUNDAY THE PREVIOUS WAVE DAMPENS AS IT PROGRESSES
OUT OF THE AREA. THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN SEE HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE IN THE WAKE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION SUNDAY,
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO MID-WEEK, WE
WILL SEE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BECOME FURTHER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US. THIS RIDGING WILL BE QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, RUNNING ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THIS WILL USHER IN MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BUT WITH THAT WILL COME WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMEST DAY RIGHT NOW IS EXPECTED TO BE TUESDAY,
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THEN BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THIS RIDGING WILL START TO BREAKDOWN AND A
COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN THE VARIOUS MODEL
SUITES THAT WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED, BUT OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THAN SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY COULD USHER IN SOME MUCH DRYER AND
COOLER WEATHER BY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK,
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT PROGRESSES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILINGS
RANGE FROM IFR AT IOB AND SJS, MVFR AT SYM, AND VFR ELSEWHERE.
A LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18-20Z WITH A RESURGENCE IN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREIF IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS
AND FLIGHT CATEGORIES UNTIL 20Z. LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 05Z WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS AND IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE SLOWLY MIXING OUT AROUND 14Z FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GINNICK
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