448
FXUS63 KJKL 130950
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
550 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE
IN PLACES WILL CLEAR UP BY MID- MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL, OR EVEN NEAR
RECORD LEVELS, BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DISTINCT COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE STATE WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS SLIPPED EAST OF
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SHOWERS AND
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO CLEAR WHILE LEAVING BEHIND PLENTY OF
SFC MOISTURE. AS A RESULT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG, LOCALLY
DENSE, DEVELOPED AND ARE CURRENTLY PLAGUING THE AREA. AMID LIGHT
WINDS TEMPERATURES (AND DEWPOINTS) ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGHOUT
EASTERN KENTUCKY - GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE FOG
SHOULD START TO BREAK UP AROUND 9 AM UNTIL THEN THOUGH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE STILL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE LOWER HEIGHTS OF A LOCAL 5H TROUGH
EXITING TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WHILE HEIGHTS START BUILDING
THROUGH KENTUCKY. THIS IS ON ACCOUNT OF A DOME OF ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH HEIGHTS SHIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE HEART OF TEXAS TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. BEFORE THIS STARTS TO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY, THOUGH, A LARGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIPS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BRUSHING BY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF ENERGY. THIS NODE THEN DEPARTS AND
ALLOWS THE WESTERN RIDGE TO SURGE OVER TENNESSEE AND DOMINATE THE
PATTERN THROUGH KENTUCKY FOR THE LATTER PART OF MONDAY AND INTO AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. CONSIDERING THE SMALL MODEL SPREAD, MAINLY
UNADJUSTED NBM DATA WERE USED FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS THIS MORNING.
WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINT AIR TEMPORARILY CLEARING OUT TONIGHT DID
ADD A TOUCH OF TERRAIN DISTINCTION TO THE TEMPERATURES AND LOWS
TONIGHT WHILE ALSO DRYING OUT THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MONDAY. AS
FOR POPS, INCLUDED THE LATEST CAMS GUIDANCE TO ENHANCE THE NBM
POPS TONIGHT AND ACCOUNT FOR THE COLD FRONT SETTLING TOWARD THE
AREA.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FOGGY AND CLOUDY START TO THE DAY
WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR POCKETS OF DRIZZLE. THE
WORST OF THE FOG WILL BE BREAKING UP TOWARD 9 AM WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING BY AFTERNOON. THE PASSING TROUGH ALOFT WILL
HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED THERE. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE GONE AS IT PASSES THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN REACHES.
THIS FROPA WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANT SUNNY, NOT SO WARM, AND DRIER
DAY TO START THE SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER ALONG WITH SOME COOLING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES.
THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE TO POPS -
ADJUSTING THEM FOR TONIGHT WITH THAT FRONT MOVING THROUGH PER THE
INCLUSION OF GUIDANCE FROM THE LATEST CAMS. TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED JUST A BIT TONIGHT FOR TERRAIN DETAILS -
MITIGATED BY A BREEZE LIKELY STAYING UP - AND MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MORE DRYING THAN REFLECTED IN THE NBM DEWPOINTS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE
IDEA OF A LARGE 5H RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK BEFORE SOME SOUTHWEST DRIFT IS PROGGED TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. THE NET RESULT WILL CONTINUE TO MEAN HIGH 5H HEIGHTS
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE EXTENDED KEEPING TEMPERATURES
UNSEASONABLE WARM AND LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
TO OPEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, PROMINENT FEATURES AT 500 MB INCLUDE A
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST, A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
DOWN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHILE A SECOND TROUGH IS MODELED
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE, WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AND OHIO
VALLEY BY TUESDAY, LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, THE SECOND TROUGH MODELED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY
MONDAY WILL SLOWLY BREAK THE UPPER RIDGE DOWN, USHERING IN COOLER
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER, THE NEW WORK WEEK STARTS WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT HAVING JUST PASSED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. SOME LINGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY ALONG THE VIRGINIA-KENTUCKY
BORDER. SOME RESIDUAL RIVER VALLEY FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY,
BECOMING FAIR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT
MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS, WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG RIDGE
TOPS. RIVER VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MIXING OUT TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND
TROUGH BRINGS SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE STALLING OUT SATURDAY. AGREEMENT
AMONG MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES WIDEN HEADING TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK. WITH TROUGHING ENERGY SEEMINGLY BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, HIGH TEMPERATURES RELAX SOME, RANGING
FROM THE MID 80S TO UPPER 80S NORTH TO SOUTH ON FRIDAY, AND LOW
80S TO MID 80S NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
AT THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE, RANGING FROM IFR UNDER LOW CLOUDS AND
DENSE FOG TO VFR UNDER TEMPORARILY CLEAR SKIES. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. THE FOG
AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AMIDST
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM SATURDAY'S
RAINFALL. THIS WILL LEAD TO POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK AND BEYOND WITH IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS
PROBABLE. HOWEVER, BY MID MORNING THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
IMPROVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST. LOOK FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
TO BE AN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT, AS WELL. MEANWHILE, WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND THEN
BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF
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