586
FXUS63 KJKL 132016
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
416 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL, OR EVEN NEAR
RECORD LEVELS, BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1122 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
FOG HAS LIFTED INTO A LOW STRATUS/STRATOCU LATE THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EVOLVING INTO A FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL ALSO TURN PLEASANTLY WARM
WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE 80S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
CONTINUED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY GIVEN THE OBS AND MANY OF THE
WEB CAMS. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS AND ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DISTINCT COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE STATE WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS SLIPPED EAST OF
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SHOWERS AND
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO CLEAR WHILE LEAVING BEHIND PLENTY OF
SFC MOISTURE. AS A RESULT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG, LOCALLY
DENSE, DEVELOPED AND ARE CURRENTLY PLAGUING THE AREA. AMID LIGHT
WINDS TEMPERATURES (AND DEWPOINTS) ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGHOUT
EASTERN KENTUCKY - GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE FOG
SHOULD START TO BREAK UP AROUND 9 AM UNTIL THEN THOUGH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE STILL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE LOWER HEIGHTS OF A LOCAL 5H TROUGH
EXITING TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WHILE HEIGHTS START BUILDING
THROUGH KENTUCKY. THIS IS ON ACCOUNT OF A DOME OF ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH HEIGHTS SHIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE HEART OF TEXAS TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. BEFORE THIS STARTS TO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY, THOUGH, A LARGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIPS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BRUSHING BY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF ENERGY. THIS NODE THEN DEPARTS AND
ALLOWS THE WESTERN RIDGE TO SURGE OVER TENNESSEE AND DOMINATE THE
PATTERN THROUGH KENTUCKY FOR THE LATTER PART OF MONDAY AND INTO AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. CONSIDERING THE SMALL MODEL SPREAD, MAINLY
UNADJUSTED NBM DATA WERE USED FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS THIS MORNING.
WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINT AIR TEMPORARILY CLEARING OUT TONIGHT DID
ADD A TOUCH OF TERRAIN DISTINCTION TO THE TEMPERATURES AND LOWS
TONIGHT WHILE ALSO DRYING OUT THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MONDAY. AS
FOR POPS, INCLUDED THE LATEST CAMS GUIDANCE TO ENHANCE THE NBM
POPS TONIGHT AND ACCOUNT FOR THE COLD FRONT SETTLING TOWARD THE
AREA.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FOGGY AND CLOUDY START TO THE DAY
WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR POCKETS OF DRIZZLE. THE
WORST OF THE FOG WILL BE BREAKING UP TOWARD 9 AM WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING BY AFTERNOON. THE PASSING TROUGH ALOFT WILL
HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED THERE. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE GONE AS IT PASSES THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN REACHES.
THIS FROPA WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANT SUNNY, NOT SO WARM, AND DRIER
DAY TO START THE SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER ALONG WITH SOME COOLING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES.
THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE TO POPS -
ADJUSTING THEM FOR TONIGHT WITH THAT FRONT MOVING THROUGH PER THE
INCLUSION OF GUIDANCE FROM THE LATEST CAMS. TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED JUST A BIT TONIGHT FOR TERRAIN DETAILS -
MITIGATED BY A BREEZE LIKELY STAYING UP - AND MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MORE DRYING THAN REFLECTED IN THE NBM DEWPOINTS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING INTO
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEAST US. ELSEWHERE, A TROUGH RESIDES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODELS DEPICT A 598-600 DAM HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF
TENNESSEE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER, MODEL-TO-MODEL RUNS OF
THE LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE, WITH INFLUENCE
EXTENDING FURTHER NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOES EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD TEXAS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL LEAVE THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK TROUGHING.
AT THE SURFACE, CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
FROM QUEBEC THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STRONGER RIDGE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY HAS
TRENDED THE MODEL MEAN TEMPERATURES WARMER FOR THURSDAY AND HAS
LOWERED FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON THE FRONT ACTUALLY COMING
THROUGH. 850-MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 19-20 C SUGGEST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ON
THURSDAY. AT JKL, THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 90, SET
BACK IN 1991. THIS COULD BE IN PLAY. ONE THING THAT MAY HINDER
THOSE CHANCES WOULD BE ANY ADDED CLOUD COVER OR CONVECTION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MODEL SPREAD DOES INCREASE THURSDAY
ONWARD SURROUNDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEARBY FRONT. THEREFORE
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SOME HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
A MIXED HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CU FIELD WAS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY AT THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THAT CUMULUS FIELD
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS
IN DIURNAL HEATING. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AFTER
SUNSET AND WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM, PRIMARILY NORTHEAST OF THE KY-15 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IN
IMPACTS AT ANY TAF SITES WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION. FOG IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN MANY SHELTERED RIVER VALLEY LOCALES
OVERNIGHT, BUT INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD KEEP IT AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN AROUND OR LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH 6Z AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5 AND
10 KTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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