473
FXUS63 KJKL 132043
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
443 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL, OR EVEN NEAR
RECORD LEVELS, BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
DELIGHTFUL MID-SEPTEMBER AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
THROUGH THE 80S TO AROUND 90F (IN THE WARMEST SPOTS). JUST
UPSTREAM, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MARKED BY A DISTINCT WIND
SHIFT, EXTENDS FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TO NEAR CINCINNATI, OH, AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TO
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, FOLLOWED BY SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AND COOLER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (FROST ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN, AND UPPER MICHIGAN). LOOKING
ALOFT, THOUGH, BROAD TROUGHING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES WITH LITTLE NOTABLE FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ITSELF. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE IS ALSO SUBSTANTIAL
CAPPING AROUND THE 700 HPA LEVEL, IN SPITE OF A CORRIDOR OF 1000
TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THUS, THE FORECAST FEATURES A LOW-END CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF I-64,
IN CASE A STRONGER UPDRAFT IS ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAPPING
STABLE LAYER. OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT AND A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH. FOG MAY FORM
IN SHELTERED VALLEYS PRIOR TO THE FRONTS ARRIVAL, BUT WILL BE MUCH
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN LAST NIGHT AND MAY DISSIPATE IN SOME AREAS
AS THE BOUNDARY ARRIVES. EXPECT LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.
LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE CWA
AND STALL. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT FROM MICHIGAN TO
OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA, MAINTAINING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. DEW POINTS SHOULD DIP BACK INTO THE 50S
TO NEAR 60F, WHILE TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE
NORTHEASTERN HILLS AND THE MID 80S NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER. THE DRY
AIR AND NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COOL AND
MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.
NOCTURNAL FOG FORMATION IS PROBABLE AGAIN IN THE TYPICALLY FAVORED
SHELTERED RIVER VALLEY LOCALES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING INTO
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEAST US. ELSEWHERE, A TROUGH RESIDES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODELS DEPICT A 598-600 DAM HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF
TENNESSEE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER, MODEL-TO-MODEL RUNS OF
THE LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE, WITH INFLUENCE
EXTENDING FURTHER NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOES EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD TEXAS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL LEAVE THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK TROUGHING.
AT THE SURFACE, CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
FROM QUEBEC THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STRONGER RIDGE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY HAS
TRENDED THE MODEL MEAN TEMPERATURES WARMER FOR THURSDAY AND HAS
LOWERED FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON THE FRONT ACTUALLY COMING
THROUGH. 850-MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 19-20 C SUGGEST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ON
THURSDAY. AT JKL, THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 90, SET
BACK IN 1991. THIS COULD BE IN PLAY. ONE THING THAT MAY HINDER
THOSE CHANCES WOULD BE ANY ADDED CLOUD COVER OR CONVECTION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MODEL SPREAD DOES INCREASE THURSDAY
ONWARD SURROUNDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEARBY FRONT. THEREFORE
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SOME HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
A MIXED HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CU FIELD WAS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY AT THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THAT CUMULUS FIELD
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS
IN DIURNAL HEATING. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AFTER
SUNSET AND WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM, PRIMARILY NORTHEAST OF THE KY-15 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IN
IMPACTS AT ANY TAF SITES WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION. FOG IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN MANY SHELTERED RIVER VALLEY LOCALES
OVERNIGHT, BUT INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD KEEP IT AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN AROUND OR LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH 6Z AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5 AND
10 KTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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