753
FXUS63 KJKL 140325 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1125 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- NEAR-RECORD HEAT IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90F.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1125 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
03Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE JKL CWA. BEHIND THIS A DIFFERENT AIR MASS IS BUILDING
INTO THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS AND A STIRRING OF
THE WINDS FROM THE NORTH. LOOK FOR THIS NICER AIR TO WORK DEEPER
INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. IT
SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE THICKEST FOG CONFINED TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS -
MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE CONDITIONS WE SAW LAST NIGHT. CURRENTLY,
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
AREA - GENERALLY A LITTLE COOLER IN THE VALLEYS THAN ON THE
RIDGES. MEANWHILE, UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DEWPOINTS VARY FROM
THE MID 60S NORTH TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH - AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS AND ALSO TO FINE TUNE THE LOW
POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT PER CURRENT RADAR AND CAMS
GUIDANCE. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS AND ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
DELIGHTFUL MID-SEPTEMBER AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
THROUGH THE 80S TO AROUND 90F (IN THE WARMEST SPOTS). JUST
UPSTREAM, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MARKED BY A DISTINCT WIND
SHIFT, EXTENDS FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TO NEAR CINCINNATI, OH, AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TO
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, FOLLOWED BY SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AND COOLER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (FROST ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN, AND UPPER MICHIGAN). LOOKING
ALOFT, THOUGH, BROAD TROUGHING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES WITH LITTLE NOTABLE FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ITSELF. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE IS ALSO SUBSTANTIAL
CAPPING AROUND THE 700 HPA LEVEL, IN SPITE OF A CORRIDOR OF 1000
TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THUS, THE FORECAST FEATURES A LOW-END CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF I-64,
IN CASE A STRONGER UPDRAFT IS ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAPPING
STABLE LAYER. OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT AND A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH. FOG MAY FORM
IN SHELTERED VALLEYS PRIOR TO THE FRONTS ARRIVAL, BUT WILL BE MUCH
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN LAST NIGHT AND MAY DISSIPATE IN SOME AREAS
AS THE BOUNDARY ARRIVES. EXPECT LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.
LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE CWA
AND STALL. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT FROM MICHIGAN TO
OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA, MAINTAINING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. DEW POINTS SHOULD DIP BACK INTO THE 50S
TO NEAR 60F, WHILE TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE
NORTHEASTERN HILLS AND THE MID 80S NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER. THE DRY
AIR AND NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COOL AND
MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.
NOCTURNAL FOG FORMATION IS PROBABLE AGAIN IN THE TYPICALLY FAVORED
SHELTERED RIVER VALLEY LOCALES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING INTO
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEAST US. ELSEWHERE, A TROUGH RESIDES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODELS DEPICT A 598-600 DAM HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF
TENNESSEE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER, MODEL-TO-MODEL RUNS OF
THE LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE, WITH INFLUENCE
EXTENDING FURTHER NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOES EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD TEXAS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL LEAVE THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK TROUGHING.
AT THE SURFACE, CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
FROM QUEBEC THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STRONGER RIDGE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY HAS
TRENDED THE MODEL MEAN TEMPERATURES WARMER FOR THURSDAY AND HAS
LOWERED FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON THE FRONT ACTUALLY COMING
THROUGH. 850-MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 19-20 C SUGGEST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON
THURSDAY. AT JKL, THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 90, SET
BACK IN 1991. THIS COULD BE IN PLAY. ONE THING THAT MAY HINDER
THOSE CHANCES WOULD BE ANY ADDED CLOUD COVER OR CONVECTION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MODEL SPREAD DOES INCREASE THURSDAY
ONWARD SURROUNDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEARBY FRONT. THEREFORE
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SOME HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 751 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA AT THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. UPSTREAM, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING
FORM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM, PRIMARILY NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE KY-15
CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION IMPACTING ANY TAF SITES WAS TOO
LOW TO MENTION. AT LEAST SOME FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
IN SHELTERED RIVER VALLEY LOCALES OVERNIGHT, BUT INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD KEEP IT AWAY FROM THE TAF
SITES. WHILE ONLY FEW TO SCT CLOUD ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT, LOCATIONS NEAR THE KY-VA BORDER COULD SEE A PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND OR LESS THAN 5
KTS THROUGH 6Z AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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