463
FXUS63 KJKL 141453
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1053 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A COOLER AND MORE COMFORTABLE DAY, TODAY, WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- NEAR-RECORD HEAT IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90F.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD COVER LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THE BACK END OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
SHOULD THIN OUT INTO A CUMULUS FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS, SKY COVER FORECASTS WERE MODIFIED TO KEEP CLOUD COVER
OVER THESE AREAS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINT FORECASTS WERE
ALSO ADJUSTED LOWER TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LOW-LEVEL
COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS AND ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE, AND NOW MOSTLY DRY, COLD
FRONT WORKING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. IN ITS WAKE,
WINDS ARE TURNING MORE NORTHERLY PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10
MPH AS THE LEADING PORTION OF COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE. THIS CHANGE IN AIR MASS AND
THE STIRRING OF THE WIND IS KEEPING THE WORST OF THE FOG CONFINED
TO THE RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, AMID MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE THE MID 60S NORTH (AND IN
SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS) TO NEAR 70 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTH. DEWPOINTS DEPICT THE CHANGING AIR CLEARLY WITH READINGS IN
THE UPPER 50S NORTH WHILE THEY ARE NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, CONTINUE TO BE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A NEARBY 5H TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT KEEPING ITS
ENERGY WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY - MINIMIZING ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE JKL CWA. IN THE WAKE OF ITS PASSAGE, A STRONG,
ANOMALOUS RIDGE/DOME OF HEAT WILL QUICKLY BUILD EAST INTO
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE BY EVENING BRINGING DEEP AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
PRACTICALLY OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD -
KEEPING ALL MID LEVEL ENERGY WELL AWAY FROM OUR AREA. AGAIN
CONSIDERING THE VERY SMALL MODEL SPREAD, MAINLY UNADJUSTED NBM
DATA WERE USED FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WITH
THE LOWER DEWPOINT AIR TEMPORARILY MOVING INTO THE STATE TODAY DID
INCLUDE MORE TERRAIN DISTINCTION WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND LOWS
TONIGHT WHILE ALSO DRYING OUT EACH AFTERNOON'S DEWPOINTS. AS FOR
POPS, SAW NO REASON NOT TO KEEP THEM AT THE NBM'S NEAR ZERO VALUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE ONE SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE STATE AND ANOTHER HOVERS WELL TO THE NORTH.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS TO
START BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WE SAW ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE
CHANGING AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL MEAN A COOLER
DAY EVEN IF IT IS ONLY TEMPORARY. ALSO LOOK FOR MORE SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THAT CHANGES ON
TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRINGS ITS HEAT AND
SUPPRESSIVE WX REGIME TO THE JKL CWA. FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND LOWER HUMIDITIES TO ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING, VALLEY FOG FORMATION - BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE
BY DAWN, AND TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS FROM THE MILDER RIDGES TO THE
COOLER ONES IN THE DEEPER SHELTERED SPOTS.
THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE MADE TO
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS - ADJUSTED THE T GRIDS TONIGHT FOR
TERRAIN DETAILS AND BROUGHT THE DEWPOINTS LOWER DURING EACH
AFTERNOON OWING TO A MIXDOWN OF LOWER HUMIDITY AIR. AS FOR POPS,
THEY WHERE KEPT MINIMAL AND PRETTY MUCH JUST AS POPULATED FROM
THE NBM - REASONABLE FOR THE RIDGING BUILDING STRONGLY ALOFT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE
IDEA OF A LARGE 5H RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK BEFORE SOME WEAKENING AND DRIFTING OF ITS CENTER IS
PROGGED TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD PERHAPS INCLUDE THE GULF
BECOMING MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE PERIOD - NOT NECESSARILY A
RECIPE FOR HELPING TO CLEAR THE LOCAL RIDGE. THE NET RESULT WILL
CONTINUE TO MEAN TEMPERATURES STAYING UNSEASONABLE WARM AND
SERIOUSLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING INTO
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEAST US. ELSEWHERE, A TROUGH RESIDES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODELS DEPICT A 598-600 DAM HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF
TENNESSEE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER, MODEL-TO-MODEL RUNS OF
THE LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE, WITH INFLUENCE
EXTENDING FURTHER NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOES EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD TEXAS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL LEAVE THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK TROUGHING.
AT THE SURFACE, CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
FROM QUEBEC THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STRONGER RIDGE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY HAS
TRENDED THE MODEL MEAN TEMPERATURES WARMER FOR THURSDAY AND HAS
LOWERED FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON THE FRONT ACTUALLY COMING
THROUGH. 850-MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 19-20 C SUGGEST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON
THURSDAY. AT JKL, THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 90, SET
BACK IN 1991. THIS COULD BE IN PLAY. ONE THING THAT MAY HINDER
THOSE CHANCES WOULD BE ANY ADDED CLOUD COVER OR CONVECTION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MODEL SPREAD DOES INCREASE THURSDAY
ONWARD SURROUNDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEARBY FRONT. THEREFORE
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SOME HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AT THE 12Z
TAF ISSUANCE TIME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR CIGS REPORTED AT
KSJS. WHILE ONLY FEW TO SCT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS
INTO THE MORNING, LOCATIONS NEAR THE KY-VA BORDER COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS. BY MID-MORNING VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE RULE EVERYWHERE AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS LATER THIS MORNING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON/HORTON
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF
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