893
FXUS63 KJKL 142018 CCA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
418 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A COOLER AND MORE COMFORTABLE MONDAY, WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- NEAR-RECORD HEAT IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90F.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS STALLED OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, COLD,
DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER EASTERN KY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE LOW CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING HAS THINNED OUT
AND BEEN REPLACED BY A FEW FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS AND HIGH, WISPY
CIRRUS. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEY AREAS GIVEN
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DRY AIR OVERHEAD.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY HEADING INTO MID-WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS,
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY,
ADVECTING WARMER AIR BACK ACROSS EASTERN KY. BY 18Z TUESDAY,
THE LREF SUPPORTS IMPRESSIVE 500MB HEIGHTS RISING TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMA FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS
ANOMALOUS RIDGING, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
60S. IN SPITE OF THE HEAT, THE MODERATE DEW POINTS SHOULD
KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH
AREAS WEST OF I-75 COULD SEE VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AGAIN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE
IDEA OF A LARGE 5H RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK BEFORE SOME WEAKENING AND DRIFTING OF ITS CENTER IS
PROGGED TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD PERHAPS INCLUDE THE GULF
BECOMING MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE PERIOD - NOT NECESSARILY A
RECIPE FOR HELPING TO CLEAR THE LOCAL RIDGE. THE NET RESULT WILL
CONTINUE TO MEAN TEMPERATURES STAYING UNSEASONABLE WARM AND
SERIOUSLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING INTO
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEAST US. ELSEWHERE, A TROUGH RESIDES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODELS DEPICT A 598-600 DAM HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF
TENNESSEE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER, MODEL-TO-MODEL RUNS OF
THE LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE, WITH INFLUENCE
EXTENDING FURTHER NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOES EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD TEXAS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL LEAVE THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK TROUGHING.
AT THE SURFACE, CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
FROM QUEBEC THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STRONGER RIDGE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY HAS
TRENDED THE MODEL MEAN TEMPERATURES WARMER FOR THURSDAY AND HAS
LOWERED FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON THE FRONT ACTUALLY COMING
THROUGH. 850-MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 19-20 C SUGGEST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON
THURSDAY. AT JKL, THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 90, SET
BACK IN 1991. THIS COULD BE IN PLAY. ONE THING THAT MAY HINDER
THOSE CHANCES WOULD BE ANY ADDED CLOUD COVER OR CONVECTION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MODEL SPREAD DOES INCREASE THURSDAY
ONWARD SURROUNDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEARBY FRONT. THEREFORE
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SOME HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AT THE 18Z
TAF ISSUANCE TIME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR CIGS REPORTED AT
KSJS. WHILE ONLY FEW TO SCT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON, LOCATIONS NEAR THE KY-VA BORDER COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS. BY LATE AFTERNOON, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE RULE EVERYWHERE AND STAY THAT WAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.
MEANWHILE, WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 5 AND
10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON/HORTON
LONG TERM...GINNICK/GREIF
AVIATION...GEERTSON/HORTON/GREIF
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