838
FXUS63 KJKL 291838 AAB
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
238 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THURSDAY, WHILE HUMIDITY GRADUALLY
INCREASES THROUGH FRIDAY AND LINGERS THIS WEEKEND.
- A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND, BEFORE A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY PASSES TO END THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND IN SOLID CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WIND, AND
AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS - LOCALLY DENSE. MEANWHILE,
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS TO THE LOW AND MID 50S ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE STILL IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT TROUGHING PULLING FURTHER AWAY TO THE
EAST WHILE 5H HEIGHTS CLIMB OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN GENERAL,
RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL NOSE INTO SOUTHERN
PARTS OF KENTUCKY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
LARGE CLOSED LOW TROUGH WORKING EAST THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. UNTIL THIS GETS CLOSER,
THOUGH, THE BULK OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER AND HARMLESSLY WELL AWAY FROM THE JKL CWA. ON ACCOUNT
OF THE SMALL MODEL SPREAD, MOST OF THE FORECAST GRIDS AGAIN CAME
FROM UNADJUSTED NBM DATA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, FOR THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS EXTRA TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND LOWS
WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DEPICTIONS - ALONG WITH EXTRA DRYING
FOR THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. AS FOR POPS, THEY WERE KEPT NEAR ZERO
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BEYOND - IN LINE WITH NBM AND ALL CAMS
GUIDANCE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS IN A NICE
STRING OF PLEASANT WEATHER FEATURING COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY
MILD AFTERNOONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE - ONCE THE VALLEY FOG
CLEARS OUT TOWARDS 10 AM. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
WARM A BIT MORE EACH DAY INTO MID-WEEK WHILE DRY WEATHER HOLDS
FIRM. HOWEVER, DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE A BIT EACH DAY
ALLOWING FOR MORE HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT,
EXPECT A REPEAT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE
VALLEY FOG, AND MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES.
THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE AGAIN MADE TO
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS - ADJUSTED THE T GRIDS TONIGHT FOR
ENHANCED TERRAIN DETAILS AND DEWPOINTS WERE SLIGHTLY LOWERED
DURING EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS, KEPT THEM AT MINIMUM VALUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING - WELL ALIGNED WITH THE NBM AND CAMS
GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH
THE IDEA OF A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT OVER KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH ENERGY ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
ACCOMPANYING A LARGE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES JUST
IN TIME FOR THE NEW WEEK. AS A RESULT, MUCH HIGHER CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE WEEKEND COMPARED TO THE BETTER PART
OF THIS CURRENT WEEK ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY OR EXCESSIVE RAINS.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, MIRRORED AT THE SURFACE
BY HIGH PRESSURE OFFSET TO THE EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL BE MAINTAINING A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, A MEAN 500 HPA TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
WESTERN CANADA WHILE A CLOSED ~568 DAM LOW SPINS OVER THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE TROUGH WILL BE SUPPORTING AN ~991 MB
SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MACKENZIE RIVER VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THEN WESTWARD
ACROSS THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN. ANOTHER ~1000 MB LOW IS NOTED OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW.
FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE LONG-TERM, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS (MEAN 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES ~16-18C, AS PER THE LREF) AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME, THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL OPEN UP AND BE CAPTURED
THE EASTWARD-PROPAGATING NORTHERN-STREAM TROUGH. AS THAT TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD, IT WILL SUPPRESS THE 500 HPA RIDGING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY, TRANSITIONING THE FLOW ALOFT TO QUASI-ZONAL/WEAKLY TROUGHED.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BUT THEN STRUGGLE TO MAKE FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE OPENING LOW
AND RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE, PWATS COULD EXCEED THE 90TH
PERCENTILE IF THE NAEFS/ECMWF MEAN SOLUTION MATERIALIZES, AMIDST
DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA. IF INGREDIENTS
COME TOGETHER IDEALLY, A DECENT SOAKING RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY OR ADJACENT REGIONS THIS WEEKEND, BUT
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FROM A MORE SENSIBLE STANDPOINT, THIS
PATTERN WILL BRING BACK THE RETURN OF A SUMMER-LIKE FEEL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DEW POINTS RECOVERING BACK THROUGH
THE 50S AND INTO THE 60S WHILE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME OF THE HOTTER
PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND COULD FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 80S. RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN KNOCK BACK THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY BUT
IT WILL STILL BE QUITE HUMID WITH THE THREAT OF RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
CHANGE WILL BE AROUND THE CORNER TO CLOSE OUT THE FIRST WEEKEND OF
OCTOBER. WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING, A QUICK-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITING THE 49TH PARALLEL (US-CANADA BORDER)
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE YUKON. THIS WILL BRING HEIGHT FALLS TO THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE SLINGING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE COALFIELDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BEHIND THAT FRONT, LREF
MEAN 850 HPA TEMPERATURES DROP TO ~9-11C WITH MUCH DRIER PWATS (0.6
TO 0.8 INCHES) BY LATE MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF BEHIND THE
FIRST COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY AND APPEAR MINIMAL WITH THIS SECOND
BOUNDARY. INSTEAD, THE MORE NOTICEABLE EFFECT WILL BE A DECLINE IN
TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND COOL NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
40S AND 50S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
COMMONWEALTH WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CAVEAT WILL BE VALLEY FOG BETWEEN ABOUT
04Z AND 14Z THAT MAY BRING MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS, THOUGH THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT ANY TAF SITES.
OUTSIDE OF FOG, VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEERTSON/GREIF
AVIATION...JP
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