036
FXUS63 KJKL 291943
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
343 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THURSDAY, WHILE HUMIDITY GRADUALLY
INCREASES THROUGH FRIDAY AND LINGERS THIS WEEKEND.
- A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND UNTIL A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY PASSES TO END THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND IN SOLID CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WIND, AND
AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS - LOCALLY DENSE. MEANWHILE,
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS TO THE LOW AND MID 50S ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE STILL IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT TROUGHING PULLING FURTHER AWAY TO THE
EAST WHILE 5H HEIGHTS CLIMB OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN GENERAL,
RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL NOSE INTO SOUTHERN
PARTS OF KENTUCKY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
LARGE CLOSED LOW TROUGH WORKING EAST THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. UNTIL THIS GETS CLOSER,
THOUGH, THE BULK OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER AND HARMLESSLY WELL AWAY FROM THE JKL CWA. ON ACCOUNT
OF THE SMALL MODEL SPREAD, MOST OF THE FORECAST GRIDS AGAIN CAME
FROM UNADJUSTED NBM DATA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, FOR THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS EXTRA TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND LOWS
WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DEPICTIONS - ALONG WITH EXTRA DRYING
FOR THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. AS FOR POPS, THEY WERE KEPT NEAR ZERO
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BEYOND - IN LINE WITH NBM AND ALL CAMS
GUIDANCE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS IN A NICE
STRING OF PLEASANT WEATHER FEATURING COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY
MILD AFTERNOONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE - ONCE THE VALLEY FOG
CLEARS OUT TOWARDS 10 AM. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
WARM A BIT MORE EACH DAY INTO MID-WEEK WHILE DRY WEATHER HOLDS
FIRM. HOWEVER, DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE A BIT EACH DAY
ALLOWING FOR MORE HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT,
EXPECT A REPEAT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE
VALLEY FOG, AND MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES.
THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE AGAIN MADE TO
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS - ADJUSTED THE T GRIDS TONIGHT FOR
ENHANCED TERRAIN DETAILS AND DEWPOINTS WERE SLIGHTLY LOWERED
DURING EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS, KEPT THEM AT MINIMUM VALUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING - WELL ALIGNED WITH THE NBM AND CAMS
GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS THURSDAY MORNING WITH A ~1020 MB SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. FURTHER
UPSTREAM, AN UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW (WITH CENTRAL 500 MB HEIGHTS
AROUND 570-576 DAM) EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGH
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST. RECENT LREF
RUNS HAVE TRENDED NOTICEABLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS PATTERN,
DEEPENING THE SOUTHWESTERN LOW WHILE STRENGTHENING THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN US. THIS ENHANCED DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WARM-
AIR ADVECTION (WAA) ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ACCOUNT FOR THE WARMING
PRE-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES IN RECENT GUIDANCE, SUPPORTING HIGHS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY AND LOW TO MID
80S ON FRIDAY.
AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL SINK EASTWARD TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH ON
FRIDAY, DRAWING RICH GULF MOISTURE UP THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS AND BRINGING AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE SOUTHERN-STREAM UPPER TROUGH OPENS
UP AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER/APPALACHIANS,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ON SATURDAY UNDER PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN.
A SECONDARY NORTHERN-STREAM TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING, PUSHING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION AND STEADILY LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S). HOWEVER, AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY SWEEPS ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS, ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES COULD REMAIN ALONG THE KY-TN
AND KY-VA BORDERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. DRIER CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES FULL CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, SHUTTING OFF ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION. WHILE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLEASANT
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW COOLER LOWS IN THE 40S TO RETURN TO THE
AREA.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
COMMONWEALTH WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CAVEAT WILL BE VALLEY FOG BETWEEN ABOUT
04Z AND 14Z THAT MAY BRING MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS, THOUGH THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT ANY TAF SITES.
OUTSIDE OF FOG, VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP
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