215
FXUS63 KJKL 301948
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
348 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES CLIMB THROUGH THURSDAY, WHILE HUMIDITY GRADUALLY
INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND
UNTIL A SECONDARY BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH AHEAD OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
AS OF 330 PM EDT, HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
THE REGION UNDER FAIR SKIES, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVING
WARMED INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 80S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY, BOLSTERED BY AN
EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
AND OHIO VALLEY, CHARACTERIZED BY A 588 DAM RIDGE AT THE
85TH-95TH PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY. FARTHER WEST, A
CUT-OFF LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHILE A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNDER
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, A DECENT RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
IS EXPECTED, WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS COOLING INTO THE LOW-TO-
MID 50S WHILE RIDGE TOPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA UNDER GENERALLY FAIR SKIES;
SOME LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY BEGINS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
MEANWHILE, AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES, IT WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL FEATURE QUIET, DRY WEATHER ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SLOWS ITS EASTWARD PUSH UPON APPROACHING KENTUCKY. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT MILD WHILE MAINTAINING A MODERATE RIDGE/
VALLEY SPLIT, WITH VALLEYS COOLING INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S WHILE
RIDGE TOPS REMAIN IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BEGIN CREEPING INTO THE WESTERN BLUEGRASS BETWEEN 6-8 AM FRIDAY,
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH A ~1020 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BENEATH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COASTLINE. FURTHER UPSTREAM, AN UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL BE RAPIDLY DAMPENING INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN VICINITY OF THE WESTERN
TX PANHANDLE FRIDAY. RECENT LREF RUNS HAVE TRENDED NOTICEABLY MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THIS PATTERN, DEEPENING THE SOUTHWESTERN LOW WHILE
STRENGTHENING THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS ENHANCED
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WARM-AIR ADVECTION (WAA)
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ACCOUNT FOR THE WARMING PRE-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES IN RECENT GUIDANCE, SUPPORTING HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON FRIDAY.
AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL SINK EASTWARD TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH ON
FRIDAY, DRAWING RICH GULF MOISTURE UP THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS AND BRINGING AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE SOUTHERN-STREAM UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP
AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER/APPALACHIANS,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S
ON SATURDAY UNDER PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN.
A SECONDARY NORTHERN-STREAM TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING, PUSHING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION AND STEADILY LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S). HOWEVER, AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY SWEEPS ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS, ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES COULD REMAIN ALONG THE KY-TN
AND KY-VA BORDERS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. DRIER CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES FULL CONTROL BY MONDAY MORNING, SHUTTING OFF ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION. WHILE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLEASANT
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW COOLER LOWS IN THE 40S TO RETURN TO
THE AREA.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD, LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST; HOWEVER, TOMORROW MORNING MAY BECOME BREEZY AS
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ENGAGES A 20-25 KT LLJ. TAF SITES MAY SEE
GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS HIGH AS 20 KT FROM 14-18Z THURSDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GINNICK
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