364
FXUS63 KJKL 011945
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES PEAK LATER TODAY, WHILE HUMIDITY GRADUALLY
INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
WEEKEND, UNTIL A SECONDARY BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH AHEAD OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS
WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1114 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
MORNING OBSERVATIONS WERE BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST, WITHOUT ANY
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE PARKED EAST OF KENTUCKY BUT
STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE STATE. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WIND, AND
AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS - BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE - BUT
PROBABLY NOT AS BAD AS THE PAST FEW MORNING'S. MEANWHILE,
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE SHELTERED
NORTHEAST VALLEYS TO THE MID 60S ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THEY ALL DEPICT RIDGING AT 5H OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A CLOSED
TROUGH OPENS UP AND SPREADS EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THROUGH 12Z, FRIDAY THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM'S MID-LEVEL ENERGY
LIFTS NORTH OF KENTUCKY IN CONJUNCTION WITH FAIRLY STRONG
TROUGHING PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM. EVENTUALLY, THOUGH, THIS WAVE OF IMPULSES SETTLE
SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY WITH HEIGHT FALLS FOR THE AREA AND MORE
INFLUENCE FROM THE WEAKENING VORT STREAM. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
SMALL MODEL SPREAD, MOST OF THE FORECAST GRIDS AGAIN CAME FROM
UNADJUSTED NBM DATA THIS MORNING. ONLY LIMITED TERRAIN-BASED
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS TONIGHT AS MORE CLOUDS
AND SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE UNIFORM THAN
THESE PAST NIGHTS - THOUGH THE DEEPEST VALLEYS WILL STILL LIKELY
DECOUPLE EARLY AND DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY. DID ALSO APPLY A BIT OF
EXTRA DRYING TO THE DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS, DID
INCLUDE THE LATEST CAMS CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ONE MORE DRY AND WARM DAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
MOST SPOTS. CLOUDS MOVE IN MORE COMPLETELY LATE TONIGHT AND LIKELY
HELP TO MODERATE THE TERRAIN DIFFERENCES BY DAWN AND ALSO MITIGATE
THE FORMATION OF THICKER VALLEY FOG. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE FRONT
SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AT GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS FOR MOST
PLACES IN THE AFTERNOON. TRAINING OF SHOWERS MAY LEAD TO LOCAL
EXCESSIVE RAINS, BUT THE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST WEEK WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL CONCERN FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WITH THE THICK CLOUD
COVER AND PCPN DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER FOR HIGHS IN THE BLUEGRASS
REGION - UPPER 70S - WHILE THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA MANAGES
TO STILL SEE THE MID 80S.
THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE MADE TO
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS - ADJUSTED THE T GRIDS A BIT TONIGHT
FOR TERRAIN DETAILS AND DEWPOINTS WERE SLIGHTLY LOWERED THIS
AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS, INCLUDED THE LATEST VALUES FROM THE CAMS
FOR FRIDAY'S PCPN CHANCES - MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS DURING WHAT LOOKS TO BE A COOL AND
RAINY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS POISED TO SIT SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. POST-FRONTAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ENCOMPASS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES DROP CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE KY-TN AND KY-VA BORDERS. SHOWER CHANCES
SHOULD GENERALLY STAY SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM MONTICELLO
TO HAZARD TO PRESTONSBURG.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE
(PWATS AROUND 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES) INTERACTING WITH AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL GENERATE A SOLID WAVE OF OVERRUNNING RAINFALL, ENHANCED BY
UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST AND A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION (CAA), ENDING PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
HEADING INTO THE NEW WORKWEEK, EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
(1024-1028 MB) BUILDS DIRECTLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY
BEFORE DRIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
BY WEDNESDAY. DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL USHER IN A VERY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION,
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST ON
THURSDAY, LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW A BRIEF
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, A POTENT NORTHERN-STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A STRONG REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER
SURGE OF COOLER AIR HEADING INTO FRIDAY.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID-70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, BEFORE
MODERATING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT,
WHEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS CREATE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. UNDER THIS SETUP, RIDGE TOPS
WILL HOLD IN THE MID-40S WHILE SHELTERED VALLEYS DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND WILL LAST
WELL INTO THE NIGHT. A BIT OF VALLEY FOG IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY IN SOUTHEAST KY, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIMITED IN EXTENT AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AT THE 3-4K FT AGL LEVEL. IT
COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BY THEN. SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY 18Z, WITH SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL/GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL
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