033
FXUS63 KJKL 020544
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
144 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL
LINGER UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND IN SOME LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
- DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE AREA WIDE FOR THE NEW
WORKWEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TODAY,
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. THESE FEATURES
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR LOCAL WEATHER, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
AND WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF
DETROIT TO NEAR ST. LOUIS. THE MAIN PREVAILING WESTERLIES ALOFT
ARE OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA, WITH BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THAT AREA. A WEAKER EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS, ENCOMPASSING A LOW OVER KS.
THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEAST RIDGE AND THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH/LOW
WILL BOTH WEAKEN THROUGH THE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH A PIECE
OF THE LOW GETTING PICKED UP BY THE MAIN WESTERLIES AND RIDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE. THIS WILL FURTHER
HELP TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE AND DRAG THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL SUPPORT FURTHER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY CLIMBING TODAY, AND
SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR 70 ON SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BY THE
TIME THE FRONT ARRIVES. THE AMPLE MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS
WITH THE FRONT, AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, BUT INSTABILITY
LOOKS MEAGER. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWING BY THE TIME IT SLIPS TO
OUR SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT, AND PRECIP WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS DURING WHAT LOOKS TO BE A COOL AND
RAINY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS POISED TO SIT SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. POST-FRONTAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ENCOMPASS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES DROP CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE KY-TN AND KY-VA BORDERS. SHOWER CHANCES
SHOULD GENERALLY STAY SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM MONTICELLO
TO HAZARD TO PRESTONSBURG.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE
(PWATS AROUND 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES) INTERACTING WITH AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL GENERATE A SOLID WAVE OF OVERRUNNING RAINFALL, ENHANCED BY
UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST AND A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION (CAA), ENDING PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
HEADING INTO THE NEW WORKWEEK, EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
(1024-1028 MB) BUILDS DIRECTLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY
BEFORE DRIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
BY WEDNESDAY. DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL USHER IN A VERY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION,
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST ON
THURSDAY, LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW A BRIEF
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, A POTENT NORTHERN-STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A STRONG REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER
SURGE OF COOLER AIR HEADING INTO FRIDAY.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID-70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, BEFORE
MODERATING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT,
WHEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS CREATE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. UNDER THIS SETUP, RIDGE TOPS
WILL HOLD IN THE MID-40S WHILE SHELTERED VALLEYS DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND WILL LAST
WELL INTO THE NIGHT. A BIT OF VALLEY FOG IS FORECAST THIS MORNING
IN SOUTHEAST KY, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED IN EXTENT
AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING RISING RAIN CHANCES
AND WORSENING CEILINGS. INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, AND THESE ARE HANDLED WITH PROB30 GROUPS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT BUT INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH, THEN
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING, GRADUALLY VEERING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS
HAS ALSO BEEN ADDED AT SOME SITES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING
STRADDLING SUNRISE UNTIL THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET MIXES OUT
BEGINNING 13Z-15Z.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC
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