962
FXUS63 KJKL 030531
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
131 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL BRING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN SOME LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY.
- DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE AREA WIDE FOR THE NEW
WORKWEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR THE KY/VA BORDER, ALTHOUGH LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ONGOING BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS THE
REMOVAL OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT, GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND DECLINING INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT.
ADDITIONALLY, FOG WAS INTRODUCED FOR AREAS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF I-64,
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT LOW STRATUS THAT MAY SCRAPE THE
GROUND IN PLACES (WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR FOG ON RIDGETOPS).
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WERE NUDGED TOWARDS CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST STILL REMAINING
ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
AT 20Z, SHOWERS ARE STREAMING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOW AND 6-8 PM
EDT AS THERE'S ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A LOW-END CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WHERE MORE
SUSTAINED LIGHT RAINS HAVE OCCURRED (NORTHWEST OF JACKSON).
FARTHER SOUTH, BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID-80S. IT IS THIS AREA WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST PROBABLE IF THEY WERE TO OCCUR. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION TO NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH SOME LOWER 60S
POSSIBLE ALONG THE TN-KY AND VA-KY BORDERS.
A COLD FRONT IS POISED TO STALL JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. POST-FRONTAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ENCOMPASS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES DROP CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY CEASES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SATURDAY EVENING.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS
AROUND 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES) INTERACTING WITH AN APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL GENERATE
A SOLID WAVE OF OVERRUNNING RAINFALL.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL EXTEND INTO THE START OF THIS PERIOD. HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST, CLOSER TO
WHERE THE BETTER PWATS (1.6-1.8 INCHES PER THE LATEST LREF). THERE
IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE, WITH THE 25TH-75TH
PERCENTILE DIFFERING BY AS MUCH AS AN INCH ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS TOTALS ON SUNDAY IN THE 0.5-0.75 INCH RANGE.
MONDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN TO CALM AND QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. RAIN WILL HAVE CLEARED OUT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, BEFORE MIGRATING FURTHER
EAST WITH TIME. A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD IN
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, SUSTAINING OUR DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUNSHINE. HIGHS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE 70S UNTIL A FEW 80S COULD RETURN IN OUR
SOUTHWEST AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. LOWS, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS, DO LOOK TO BE PRETTY CHILLY IN THE LOWER 40S. A FEW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S, ALTHOUGH MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT REALLY SUPPORT FROST QUITE YET, WITH FOG A BETTER
POSSIBILITY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA, WITH MOSTLY LOW MVFR OR
LOWER CIGS WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY AS OF 05Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS,
COURTESY OF LOW STRATUS, MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY LOCALIZED
REDUCTIONS TO LIFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY, WITH
IMPROVEMENTS FIRST FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST, WITH SLOWER
IMPROVEMENTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. FOR ALL TAF SITES, WINDS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY OR VARIABLE AT UNDER 10 KTS
WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...FAGAN
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...DISINGER/JKL
AVIATION...CMC
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