133
FXUS63 KJKL 041123
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
723 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BOUNDARY WAVERS OVER THE REGION TODAY, BUT MEASURABLE RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.
- DRIER AND COOLER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA ON TONIGHT, THEN
LINGERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
- EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK,
BUT WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES, THE WEAKEST LIFTING AND MOVING THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY THIS MORNING, AND THE STRONGEST MOVING SWIFTLY EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC, WILL BE THE MAJOR
PLAYERS IN TODAY'S WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS TRENDED
WEAKER AND A BIT MORE SOUTH THAN FORECASTS FROM 24 HOURS AGO, AND
THUS RAIN CHANCES HAVE LIKEWISE TRENDED SOUTH AND MOSTLY OUT OF
THE AREA EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCES THIS MORNING RIGHT ALONG THE TN
AND VA BORDERS IN THE GREATER MIDDLESBORO AREA.
THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL SHARPEN A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA
WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS A
PROGRESSIVE YET DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS, BRINGING A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY. HOWEVER, AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 70S THIS
AFTERNOON AS FOG AND LOW STRATUS LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S DESPITE THE
WEAK COLD ADVECTION UNDER CLOUD-FREE SKIES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
THOSE WHO HAVE BEEN LOOKING FORWARD TO PLEASANT AUTUMN WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE IN LUCK, BECAUSE THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD IS JUST THAT. WHEN THE PERIOD OPENS MONDAY NIGHT, A DRIER
AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION
VIA NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN. SHIFTING SYNOPTICS ALOFT WILL CAUSE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO ADOPT A QUASI- ZONAL ORIENTATION BY MIDWEEK, AND THE
CORRESPONDING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE WABASH AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS IN THIS SAME TIME FRAME.
WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THE LOSS OF THE NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT FAVOR A WARMING TREND, NEITHER OF THESE SHIFTS FAVOR
EFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN. RATHER, THEY FAVOR A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF EFFICIENT DIURNAL INSOLATION AND MIXING PROCESSES IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, THIS MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CREEP TOWARDS THE
80 DEGREE MARK AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOCALES
WILL BE THE FIRST TO RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 80S ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
THESE ABOVE-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CREEPING FURTHER EAST-NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HOWEVER, DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE LOW TO MID 50S. EFFICIENT
DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD YIELD DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE MAGNITUDE OF
25-35 DEGREES, AND IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT THOSE DEWPOINTS COULD UNDER-
PERFORM THE BLENDED NBM GUIDANCE USED TO POPULATE THE LONG TERM
FORECAST GRIDS. NEVERTHELESS, WITH FAIR SKIES IN THE FORECAST GRIDS,
IT SHOULD FEEL FANTASTIC OUTSIDE EACH AFTERNOON. THESE ARE PRIME
CONDITIONS FOR OUTDOOR FALL ACTIVITIES SUCH AS HIKING AND LEAF-
CHASING, SO GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY IT!
THIS WEEK'S SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT. EXPECT RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS
TO EMERGE AFTER SUNSET EACH NIGHT, WITH THE SHADIER VALLEYS DROPPING
OFF THE FASTEST. SOME OF THE MOST SHELTERED/SHADED VALLEY LOCALES
COULD EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS,
BUT MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MINTS IN THE 40S THIS
WEEK. FOG REMAINS FAVORED OVER FROST AS A RESULT, WITH THE GREATEST
FOG COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG THE AREA'S WATERWAYS. THEREFORE, ASIDE
FROM LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FROM THE AM FOG, THE RISK FOR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS QUITE LOW.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 723 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
CONDITIONS RANGED FROM LOW MVFR TO VLIFR AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME.
EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
MORNING, WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS LIFTING AND THEN BURNING OFF BY
MIDDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT, WHICH AT THIS TIME IS
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR FROM A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...MARCUS/CMC
AVIATION...CMC
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