509
FXUS63 KJKL 041832
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
232 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BOUNDARY WAVERS OVER THE REGION TODAY, BUT MEASURABLE RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.
- DRIER AND COOLER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA ON TONIGHT, THEN
LINGERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
- EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK,
BUT WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 840 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
MORNING OBS WERE BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST. SKY CONDITION WAS
ALSO UPDATED THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS, WITH
CLOUDS DECREASING A BIT MORE QUICKLY IN OUR NW COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
(AN UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE SENT SHORTLY)
A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES, THE WEAKEST LIFTING AND MOVING THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY THIS MORNING, AND THE STRONGEST MOVING SWIFTLY EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC, WILL BE THE MAJOR
PLAYERS IN TODAY'S WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS TRENDED
WEAKER AND A BIT MORE SOUTH THAN FORECASTS FROM 24 HOURS AGO, AND
THUS RAIN CHANCES HAVE LIKEWISE TRENDED SOUTH AND MOSTLY OUT OF
THE AREA EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCES THIS MORNING RIGHT ALONG THE TN
AND VA BORDERS IN THE GREATER MIDDLESBORO AREA.
THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL SHARPEN A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA
WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS A
PROGRESSIVE YET DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS, BRINGING A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY. HOWEVER, AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 70S THIS
AFTERNOON AS FOG AND LOW STRATUS LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S DESPITE THE
WEAK COLD ADVECTION UNDER CLOUD-FREE SKIES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD OPENS, A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN QUEBEC, WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. FARTHER WEST, MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. LOCALLY, EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL
FIND ITSELF IN A REGION OF INCONSEQUENTIAL QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
INITIALLY, ALTHOUGH BY WEDNESDAY, TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN AS AN
ADDITIONAL CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
ONTARIO. FLOW ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE
THE CLOSED CANADIAN LOW LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST, WITH QUASI ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BUILD IN MORE FROM
THE EAST. PERHAPS MORE INTERESTINGLY, THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT A
DISTURBANCE MAY FOLLOW THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE INTO
KENTUCKY THIS WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH THIS FAR
OUT.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL
KEEP WINDS EASTERLY TO EAST NORTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY, MAINTAINING
A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS (WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA). IT WILL FEEL PLEASANT, TOO, WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 70S ROUGHLY
FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH. IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT OVERNIGHT, WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S. THEN, AS THE
SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD, A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR THE OZARKS, WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S, AND DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO TICK UP A FEW DEGREES; EVEN SO,
BY THE TIME THAT A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO APPROACH THE AREA
THURSDAY, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY. BEHIND THE FRONT, LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH THE BIGGEST PATTERN SHIFT BEING A DAY OR
SO OF NORTHERLY WINDS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS IN EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY. REGARDLESS,
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE
MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT A DISTURBANCE COULD
TRACK NORTH TOWARDS KENTUCKY AROUND THIS TIME, FOLLOWING THE EDGE
OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXACT DETAILS ARE
SPARSE AT THIS POINT, BUT NBM OUTPUT SUGGESTS CHANCE POPS BY
SUNDAY, AND THIS IS CORROBORATED BY A SIGNAL FOR NOTABLE RAIN IN
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE; LREF QPF SHOWS AROUND A 50% CHANCE OF AT LEAST
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY, AROUND
THE TIME THAT ANOMALOUS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA (WITH LREF
MEAN PW VALUES IN THE 70TH TO 80TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO
CLIMATOLOGY). OF COURSE, THIS COMES WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THESE
FORECAST DETAILS MAY CHANGE WITH TIME, ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WERE VFR OVER ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA, AND MVFR OR WORSE (DUE
MAINLY TO CEILINGS) OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WERE ERODING SOUTHEASTWARD, AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS TO THE VA BORDER EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF TIME OF VFR CONDITIONS AREA
WISE BEFORE VALLEY FOG STARTS TO DEVELOP. THE FOG SHOULD SHOW UP
FIRST THIS EVENING IN SOUTHEAST KY, WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS TAKE
LONGEST TO BREAK LATE TODAY. IT WILL THEN DEVELOP NORTHWESTWARD
WITH TIME. IT WILL BRING LOCALIZED IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. THE
MOST LIKELY TAF SITES TO BE AFFECTED BY DAWN ARE KSJS AND KJKL.
THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE ON MONDAY MORNING, LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...HAL
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