119
FXUS63 KJKL 050638
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
238 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
A JET STREAK WILL DIG INTO THE BASE OF A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH THE
LEADING EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING, THOUGH THE COMBINATION OF A DRY AIR MASS AND MIXING ALONG
WITH FULL SUN FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL MEAN THAT HIGHS ARE SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY, WITH LOWER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH. THIS FEATURE
WILL MIX OUT THE FOG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING, WITH
CLEAR SKIES SETTLING OVER THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS. VALLEY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED DESPITE THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION.
RIDGE-VALLEY SPLITS IN TEMPERATURES OF SEVERAL DEGREES ARE LIKELY,
WITH LOWER 40S (AND PERHAPS AN UPPER 30S READING OR TWO) IN THE
VALLEYS AND MID TO UPPER 40S ON THE RIDGES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD OPENS, A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN QUEBEC, WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. FARTHER WEST, MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. LOCALLY, EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL
FIND ITSELF IN A REGION OF INCONSEQUENTIAL QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
INITIALLY, ALTHOUGH BY WEDNESDAY, TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN AS AN
ADDITIONAL CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
ONTARIO. FLOW ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE
THE CLOSED CANADIAN LOW LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST, WITH QUASI ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BUILD IN MORE FROM
THE EAST. PERHAPS MORE INTERESTINGLY, THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT A
DISTURBANCE MAY FOLLOW THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE INTO
KENTUCKY THIS WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH THIS FAR
OUT.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL
KEEP WINDS EASTERLY TO EAST NORTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY, MAINTAINING
A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS (WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA). IT WILL FEEL PLEASANT, TOO, WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 70S ROUGHLY
FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH. IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT OVERNIGHT, WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S. THEN, AS THE
SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD, A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR THE OZARKS, WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S, AND DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO TICK UP A FEW DEGREES; EVEN SO,
BY THE TIME THAT A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO APPROACH THE AREA
THURSDAY, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY. BEHIND THE FRONT, LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH THE BIGGEST PATTERN SHIFT BEING A DAY OR
SO OF NORTHERLY WINDS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS IN EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY. REGARDLESS,
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE
MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT A DISTURBANCE COULD
TRACK NORTH TOWARDS KENTUCKY AROUND THIS TIME, FOLLOWING THE EDGE
OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXACT DETAILS ARE
SPARSE AT THIS POINT, BUT NBM OUTPUT SUGGESTS CHANCE POPS BY
SUNDAY, AND THIS IS CORROBORATED BY A SIGNAL FOR NOTABLE RAIN IN
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE; LREF QPF SHOWS AROUND A 50% CHANCE OF AT LEAST
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY, AROUND
THE TIME THAT ANOMALOUS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA (WITH LREF
MEAN PW VALUES IN THE 70TH TO 80TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO
CLIMATOLOGY). OF COURSE, THIS COMES WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THESE
FORECAST DETAILS MAY CHANGE WITH TIME, ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
WIDESPREAD FOG PRODUCING SUB-IFR CONDITIONS IS FORMING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 05Z, AND THIS FOG WILL IMPACT JKL,
SJS, LOZ, AND POSSIBLY SME UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE, WHEN MIXING AND
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR AHEAD OF A DRY
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 11Z AND
16Z. BEHIND THE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING, VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS, THOUGH NOT IMPACTING THE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...CMC
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