250
FXUS63 KJKL 051859
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
259 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT POSSIBILITY OF RAIN IS NOT UNTIL
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
PERSISTENT DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPLYING OUR DRY AIR
MASS WILL PASS NEARBY, MOVING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON TO NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR SKIES CLEAR (ASIDE FROM NIGHTLY VALLEY FOG).
EACH NIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS, LEADING TO
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KY.
DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY HITTING UPPER 30S WHERE MIXING HAS BEEN
MOST EFFECTIVE TODAY, AND SEE NO REASON WHY OUR COLDEST VALLEYS
WON'T BE ABLE TO DIP A LITTLE BELOW 40 BY DAWN ON TUESDAY. WON'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT FROST, BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT, THINKING THAT THE NORMALLY
COLDER DEEP VALLEYS WILL TEND TO FOG INSTEAD. A RETURN OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO LARGER RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES THAN TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING
TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE BIT MILDER IN VALLEYS AS COMPARED TO TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
(AN UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.)
AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD OPENS, A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN QUEBEC, WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. FARTHER WEST, MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. LOCALLY, EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL
FIND ITSELF IN A REGION OF INCONSEQUENTIAL QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
INITIALLY, ALTHOUGH BY WEDNESDAY, TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN AS AN
ADDITIONAL CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
ONTARIO. FLOW ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE
THE CLOSED CANADIAN LOW LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST, WITH QUASI ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BUILD IN MORE FROM
THE EAST. PERHAPS MORE INTERESTINGLY, THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT A
DISTURBANCE MAY FOLLOW THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE INTO
KENTUCKY THIS WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH THIS FAR
OUT.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL
KEEP WINDS EASTERLY TO EAST NORTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY, MAINTAINING
A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS (WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA). IT WILL FEEL PLEASANT, TOO, WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 70S ROUGHLY
FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH. IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT OVERNIGHT, WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S. THEN, AS THE
SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD, A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR THE OZARKS, WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S, AND DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO TICK UP A FEW DEGREES; EVEN SO,
BY THE TIME THAT A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO APPROACH THE AREA
THURSDAY, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY. BEHIND THE FRONT, LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH THE BIGGEST PATTERN SHIFT BEING A DAY OR
SO OF NORTHERLY WINDS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS IN EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY. REGARDLESS,
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE
MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT A DISTURBANCE COULD
TRACK NORTH TOWARDS KENTUCKY AROUND THIS TIME, FOLLOWING THE EDGE
OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXACT DETAILS ARE
SPARSE AT THIS POINT, BUT NBM OUTPUT SUGGESTS CHANCE POPS BY
SUNDAY, AND THIS IS CORROBORATED BY A SIGNAL FOR NOTABLE RAIN IN
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE; LREF QPF SHOWS AROUND A 50% CHANCE OF AT LEAST
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY, AROUND
THE TIME THAT ANOMALOUS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA (WITH LREF
MEAN PW VALUES IN THE 70TH TO 80TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO
CLIMATOLOGY). OF COURSE, THIS COMES WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THESE
FORECAST DETAILS MAY CHANGE WITH TIME, ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
VALLEY FOG WILL AFFECT THE JKL FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KY, BRINGING LOCALIZED IFR OR
WORSE CONDITIONS. TAF SITES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AFFECTED.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...HAL
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