403
FXUS63 KJKL 210945 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
545 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, MILD DAYS, AND CHILLY
NIGHTS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LIGHT, PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AWAY FROM LAKES, RIVERS, AND
LARGER CREEKS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL
HOLDING NORTH OF KENTUCKY AND REMAINING IN FIRM CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THIS NIGHT. THIS IS GIVING US ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLOUD FREE
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND FAIRLY DRY DEWPOINTS - AGAIN STILL NEAR
IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS A RESULT, A RATHER
LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG WITH
THIN TRAILS OF FOG FOLLOWING THE RIVERS - LIKELY TO BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE. THIS LIMITED FOG HAS SET UP AMID ANOTHER NIGHT POSSIBLY
FEATURING SOME PATCHY FROST AWAY FROM THOSE BODIES OF WATER AND IN
THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE DOWN IN
THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW OF THE VALLEYS WHILE MANY OF THE RIDGES
HAVE ONLY SLOWLY FALLEN INTO THE LOW 50S. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE STILL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A SOUTHWESTERN 5H
RIDGE TEMPORARILY RETREATING FROM KENTUCKY TODAY ONLY TO START
REBUILDING NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR TODAY, THIS
PROCESS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY AS SLOW NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID-LEVELS CARRY SOME WEAK,
ESSENTIALLY NON-IMPACTFUL, ENERGY THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS FLOW
SHARPENS WITH TIME AND BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY BUT HEIGHTS ALSO
CLIMB, LOCALLY, INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN, GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY SMALL MODEL SPREAD, MOST OF THE FORECAST GRIDS CAME
FROM UNADJUSTED NBM DATA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, DID CONTINUE THE
PROCESS OF ENHANCING THE TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS AGAIN TONIGHT ON
ACCOUNT OF THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND NEARBY SFC HIGH WHILE
INCORPORATING THE LATEST COOP MOS GUIDANCE. DID ALSO DROP
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AND RH FROM THE NBM NUMBERS TODAY AND THURSDAY
CONSIDERING DEEPER MIXING INTO SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT. AS FOR THE
POPS - THEY ARE JUST ABOUT ZERO THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE NBM
AND WERE KEPT THAT WAY WHILE SFC RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE DOMINANT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A NEARLY PERSISTENT FORECAST OF
COOL/CLEAR NIGHTS AND SEASONALLY MILD AFTERNOONS WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. AT NIGHT, THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A RATHER LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. AGAIN,
LOOK FOR NARROW AREAS OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER
PRE-DAWN - DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER DAWN - ALONG WITH A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE TO ADJUST HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FOR ENHANCED TERRAIN EFFECTS GIVEN THE DRY
AIR AND SFC HIGH IN PLACE. DID ALSO TWEAK DEWPOINTS AND RH LOWER
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE EXPECTATIONS
OF DEEPER MIXING INTO THE DRIER AIR FOUND JUST OFF THE SFC.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
TRANQUIL WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD,
AND WITH A FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE, WEATHER WILL CHANGE
VERY LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY. ALOFT, A CLOSED LOW WILL INITIALLY BE
LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST, WITH MIDLEVEL TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN US; MEANWHILE, A STRONG AND EXPANSIVE RIDGE WILL
SIT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD, THIS
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN, ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO EXPAND
EASTWARD CLOSER TO OUR AREA, THOUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY STILL LOOKS
TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THUS, AT THE SURFACE, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE, KEEPING WEATHER UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WITH SUCH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE, EVEN CLOUDS
WILL BE HARD TO COME BY THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS, EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S. EACH NIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURES SPLITS,
ACCOMPANIED BY TYPICAL VALLEY FOG. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND THE LOW 40S
IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS, AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THIS
PATTERN.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A FEW CLOUDS DO LOOK TO RETURN, ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD
AND MIDLEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM NORTHERLY TO WESTERLY. NORTH OF THE
AREA, A TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO DIG INTO THE MIDWEST; HOWEVER, OUR
PERSISTENT RIDGE WILL PREVENT THIS TROUGH FROM PUSHING INTO OUR
AREA, EVEN AS IT FLATTENS A BIT. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO
QUEBEC, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND PERSISTENT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
KENTUCKY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODEL SPREAD DOES INCREASE BY
TUESDAY, WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN. EVEN SO, THE MOST FAVORED OUTCOME AT THIS TIME IS YET
ANOTHER PLEASANT FALL DAY, WITH POPS ONLY PEAKING IN THE VERY LOW
SINGLE DIGITS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
FOG IS LIKELY BRINGING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN MANY RIVER
VALLEY LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING (AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT), BUT
IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT ANY TAF SITES MORE THAN A BRIEF
AMOUNT OF TIME LIKE SME SAW EARLIER. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AVIATION
PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...GREIF
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