367
FXUS63 KJKL 210952
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
552 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, MILD DAYS, AND CHILLY
NIGHTS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LIGHT, PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AWAY FROM LAKES, RIVERS, AND
LARGER CREEKS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL
HOLDING NORTH OF KENTUCKY AND REMAINING IN FIRM CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THIS NIGHT. THIS IS GIVING US ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLOUD FREE
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND FAIRLY DRY DEWPOINTS - AGAIN STILL NEAR
IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS A RESULT, A RATHER
LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG WITH
THIN TRAILS OF FOG FOLLOWING THE RIVERS - LIKELY TO BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE. THIS LIMITED FOG HAS SET UP AMID ANOTHER NIGHT POSSIBLY
FEATURING SOME PATCHY FROST AWAY FROM THOSE BODIES OF WATER AND IN
THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE DOWN IN
THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW OF THE VALLEYS WHILE MANY OF THE RIDGES
HAVE ONLY SLOWLY FALLEN INTO THE LOW 50S. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE STILL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A SOUTHWESTERN 5H
RIDGE TEMPORARILY RETREATING FROM KENTUCKY TODAY ONLY TO START
REBUILDING NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR TODAY, THIS
PROCESS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY AS SLOW NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID-LEVELS CARRY SOME WEAK,
ESSENTIALLY NON-IMPACTFUL, ENERGY THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS FLOW
SHARPENS WITH TIME AND BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY BUT HEIGHTS ALSO
CLIMB, LOCALLY, INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN, GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY SMALL MODEL SPREAD, MOST OF THE FORECAST GRIDS CAME
FROM UNADJUSTED NBM DATA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, DID CONTINUE THE
PROCESS OF ENHANCING THE TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS AGAIN TONIGHT ON
ACCOUNT OF THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND NEARBY SFC HIGH WHILE
INCORPORATING THE LATEST COOP MOS GUIDANCE. DID ALSO DROP
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AND RH FROM THE NBM NUMBERS TODAY AND THURSDAY
CONSIDERING DEEPER MIXING INTO SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT. AS FOR THE
POPS - THEY ARE JUST ABOUT ZERO THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE NBM
AND WERE KEPT THAT WAY WHILE SFC RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE DOMINANT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A NEARLY PERSISTENT FORECAST OF
COOL/CLEAR NIGHTS AND SEASONALLY MILD AFTERNOONS WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. AT NIGHT, THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A RATHER LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. AGAIN,
LOOK FOR NARROW AREAS OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER
PRE-DAWN - DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER DAWN - ALONG WITH A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE TO ADJUST HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FOR ENHANCED TERRAIN EFFECTS GIVEN THE DRY
AIR AND SFC HIGH IN PLACE. DID ALSO TWEAK DEWPOINTS AND RH LOWER
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE EXPECTATIONS
OF DEEPER MIXING INTO THE DRIER AIR FOUND JUST OFF THE SFC.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 552 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, LEADING TO SEASONABLY TRANQUIL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IN EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK; IT COLLECTIVELY RESOLVES AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRETCHING UP THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THE JKL CWA
WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH
TRANSLATES TO PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. THESE
WINDS WILL WORK TO REINFORCE THE DRY, CONTINENTAL AIRMASS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA, AS WILL THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM
OF THE RIDGE AXIS APEX. AT THE SURFACE, THE CORRESPONDING (AND
RATHER BROAD) HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THAT
ANTICYCLONE WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND FURTHER
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MEANINGFUL AIRMASS MODIFICATION. THUS, EVEN
AS THIS RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
ANTECEDENT DRYNESS SHOULD PREVENT MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM MATERIALIZING.
GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE, EXPECT EFFICIENT DIURNAL PROCESSES TO
DOMINATE THE DAILY FORECAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL FAVOR PLENTIFUL
SOLAR INSOLATION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 60S/LOW 70S EACH DAY.
EFFICIENT MIXING SHOULD YIELD 20-30 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE WINDS SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AS THE SUN GOES DOWN EACH
EVENING, VALLEY LOCALES WILL BEGIN TO THERMALLY DECOUPLE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY DROP OFF IN THE AREA'S SHADED HOLLOWS,
WITH LOWS LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S WITHIN THE AREA'S MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS. PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THESE
CONVENTIONALLY COOLER SPOTS, BUT OVERNIGHT FOG FORMATION IS FAVORED
OVER FROST IN THE AREA'S BROADER VALLEYS. THE AREA'S RIVERS, LAKES,
CREEKS, AND STREAMS WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH EXTRA MOISTURE AND
RADIATIVE INSULATION TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE 40
DEGREE MARK IN THE AREA'S MORE POPULATED BROADER VALLEYS. THESE
HIGHS AND LOWS ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR LATE OCTOBER IN
EASTERN KENTUCKY.
AS HINTED AT IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH, THIS RIDGING PATTERN IS
PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THE PREVIOUSLY-PRONOUNCED RIDGE AXIS WILL RETREAT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CWA AMIDST MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ON MONDAY, LEADING TO LESS
SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLUMN. AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS FURTHER ON TUESDAY,
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TOWARDS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION.
THESE CHANGES WILL YIELD RELATIVELY GREATER AMOUNTS OF MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN BY MIDWEEK, AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODEL SPREAD BEGINS TO
INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY, LARGELY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION
OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AROUND
MIDWEEK. IF ANY OF THOSE DISTURBANCES DIGS DEEP ENOUGH TO YIELD MORE
VERTICALLY CONTINUOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO OUR CWA, THE AREA
COULD SEE ITS NEXT ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES. MENTIONABLE POPS SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE END OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD
THOUGH. LREF ENSEMBLE DATA RESOLVES A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE (> 0.01 INCHES) RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY, BUT
NEIGHBORHOOD-BASED ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES INCREASE TO
30% ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE US SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN FUTURE
FORECAST PACKAGES, BUT IN THE MEAN TIME, THE FORECAST LOOKS
FANTASTIC FOR OUTDOOR FALL ACTIVITIES. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES,
LIGHT WINDS, AND FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW FALL FOLIAGE TO REACH PEAK
COLOR IN THE COMING WEEKS. THIS WILL LEAD TO BEAUTIFUL SCENERY
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, SO WE ENCOURAGE READERS TO GET OUTSIDE AND
ENJOY THESE QUINTESSENTIAL AUTUMNAL WEATHER CONDITIONS!
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
FOG IS LIKELY BRINGING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN MANY RIVER
VALLEY LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING (AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT), BUT
IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT ANY TAF SITES MORE THAN A BRIEF
AMOUNT OF TIME LIKE SME SAW EARLIER. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AVIATION
PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GREIF
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