806
FXUS63 KJKL 211830
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
230 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, MILD DAYS, AND CHILLY
NIGHTS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LIGHT, PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AWAY FROM LAKES, RIVERS, AND
LARGER CREEKS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE, ALONG WITH EVENTUAL RISING HEIGHTS,
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY AND QUIET FOR THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
TONIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER, WITH
VALLEYS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND RIDGES STAYING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. EVEN SO, THERE COULD STILL BE A SHELTERED
VALLEY SITE THAT MIGHT SEE A TOUCH OF FROST. THERE WILL ALSO
LIKELY BE SOME MAINLY RIVER VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS
FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THURSDAY MORNING BETWEEN 9 AM AND 10 AM.
THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THURSDAY. DID OPT TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
GIVEN THE BIAS TO BE A LITTLE ON THE LOWER SIDE UNDER THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND RISING HEIGHTS NOTED ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF THIS,
LARGELY LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE NBM. THURSDAY
NIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN.
THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR PERHAPS SOME FOG AND/OR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 552 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, LEADING TO SEASONABLY TRANQUIL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IN EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK; IT COLLECTIVELY RESOLVES AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRETCHING UP THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THE JKL CWA
WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH
TRANSLATES TO PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. THESE
WINDS WILL WORK TO REINFORCE THE DRY, CONTINENTAL AIRMASS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA, AS WILL THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM
OF THE RIDGE AXIS APEX. AT THE SURFACE, THE CORRESPONDING (AND
RATHER BROAD) HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THAT
ANTICYCLONE WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND FURTHER
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MEANINGFUL AIRMASS MODIFICATION. THUS, EVEN
AS THIS RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
ANTECEDENT DRYNESS SHOULD PREVENT MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM MATERIALIZING.
GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE, EXPECT EFFICIENT DIURNAL PROCESSES TO
DOMINATE THE DAILY FORECAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL FAVOR PLENTIFUL
SOLAR INSOLATION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 60S/LOW 70S EACH DAY.
EFFICIENT MIXING SHOULD YIELD 20-30 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE WINDS SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AS THE SUN GOES DOWN EACH
EVENING, VALLEY LOCALES WILL BEGIN TO THERMALLY DECOUPLE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY DROP OFF IN THE AREA'S SHADED HOLLOWS,
WITH LOWS LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S WITHIN THE AREA'S MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS. PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THESE
CONVENTIONALLY COOLER SPOTS, BUT OVERNIGHT FOG FORMATION IS FAVORED
OVER FROST IN THE AREA'S BROADER VALLEYS. THE AREA'S RIVERS, LAKES,
CREEKS, AND STREAMS WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH EXTRA MOISTURE AND
RADIATIVE INSULATION TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE 40
DEGREE MARK IN THE AREA'S MORE POPULATED BROADER VALLEYS. THESE
HIGHS AND LOWS ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR LATE OCTOBER IN
EASTERN KENTUCKY.
AS HINTED AT IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH, THIS RIDGING PATTERN IS
PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THE PREVIOUSLY-PRONOUNCED RIDGE AXIS WILL RETREAT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CWA AMIDST MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ON MONDAY, LEADING TO LESS
SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLUMN. AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS FURTHER ON TUESDAY,
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TOWARDS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION.
THESE CHANGES WILL YIELD RELATIVELY GREATER AMOUNTS OF MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN BY MIDWEEK, AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODEL SPREAD BEGINS TO
INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY, LARGELY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION
OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AROUND
MIDWEEK. IF ANY OF THOSE DISTURBANCES DIGS DEEP ENOUGH TO YIELD MORE
VERTICALLY CONTINUOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO OUR CWA, THE AREA
COULD SEE ITS NEXT ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES. MENTIONABLE POPS SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE END OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD
THOUGH. LREF ENSEMBLE DATA RESOLVES A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE (> 0.01 INCHES) RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY, BUT
NEIGHBORHOOD-BASED ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES INCREASE TO
30% ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE US SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN FUTURE
FORECAST PACKAGES, BUT IN THE MEAN TIME, THE FORECAST LOOKS
FANTASTIC FOR OUTDOOR FALL ACTIVITIES. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES,
LIGHT WINDS, AND FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW FALL FOLIAGE TO REACH PEAK
COLOR IN THE COMING WEEKS. THIS WILL LEAD TO BEAUTIFUL SCENERY
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, SO WE ENCOURAGE READERS TO GET OUTSIDE AND
ENJOY THESE QUINTESSENTIAL AUTUMNAL WEATHER CONDITIONS!
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ROLL ON UNDERNEATH NEARBY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL VALLEY FOG
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT GENERALLY BELOW 5 KNOTS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...DJ
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