098
FXUS63 KJKL 220803
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
403 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, MILD DAYS, AND CHILLY
NIGHTS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO WEEK.
- LIGHT, PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT IN VALLEYS AWAY FROM LAKES, RIVERS, AND LARGER CREEKS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TENTACLES OF FOG EXPANDING THROUGH THE
DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, SKIES ARE CLEAR AND STARLIT, AND TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE COOLEST VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 40S ON THERMAL
BELT RIDGES. A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS REMAINS CENTERED NEAR DULUTH, MN. LOOKING ALOFT, A 500 HPA
RIDGE STRETCHES FROM TEXAS NORTHWARD TO ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO
BORDER. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL PERTURBATION IS NOTED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THAT RIDGE.
LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY, FOLLOWED BY
RENEWED WEAK LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY CAA. THAT FEED OF COOLER AIR
WILL EASE ON FRIDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD AGAIN AND THE ATTENDANT SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TO THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, EVENTUALLY CAUSING LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO VEER
MORE EASTERLY. WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE TONIGHT,
THE ONLY CONCERN OF NOTE WILL BE PATCHY FROST THAT COULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN THE PRIOR NIGHT. OTHERWISE, JUST ANTICIPATE ROUTINE
FOG FORMATION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE TYPICALLY
FAVORED VALLEY LOCALES.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, RIVER VALLEY FOG AND ANY FROST THIS MORNING WILL
BURN OFF AND GIVE WAY TO SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL AGAIN BE SEASONABLE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. CLEAR SKIES
FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS AND PATCHY
FROST, MAINLY IN THE OUTLYING COLDER HOLLOWS. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY
CHILLY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS TO
THE MID 40S ON THERMAL BELT RIDGES. LOOKING AHEAD TO FRIDAY, BRIGHT
SUN RETURNS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AN EXPANSIVE AND HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED MIDLEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS;
MEANWHILE, DEEP TROUGHING WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS,
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST, ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF MAINE AND ANOTHER COASTAL IMPULSE NEAR
THE OUTER BANKS. ALTHOUGH THIS TROUGHING WILL SHIFT OVER TIME,
SUCH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, THIS SETUP
WILL LEAD TO A VERY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY.
AT THE SURFACE, EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH SHOULD KEEP WEATHER
QUITE UNEVENTFUL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH DAY, AMPLE SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S, AND EACH NIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS TO DEVELOP. MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, AND GIVEN SUCH A DRY AIR MASS, THIS
MAGNITUDE OF COOLING SEEMS REASONABLE. IN FACT, RAW NBM DEWPOINTS
ARE LIKELY TOO MOIST GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE, ESPECIALLY IN THE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION. THUS, A DRIER DEWPOINT BLEND WAS FAVORED, WITH
RESULTANT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S DURING THE DAY, MUCH
MORE IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. AS USUAL, AS OUR VALLEYS COOL
EFFICIENTLY OVERNIGHT, FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE WEST COAST WILL
APPROACH THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. AS THESE FEATURES INTERACT, THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN, AND BY TUESDAY, FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY, WHICH WILL WORK TO INCREASE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH CANADA, WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG SOUTH TOWARDS
EASTERN KENTUCKY, BUT WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, IT
CURRENTLY SEEMS UNLIKELY THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUS, THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN WILL LIKELY BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
FOG WILL BRING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
THROUGH MID-MORNING, BUT IT IS NOT FORECAST TO AFFECT TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...HAL/GEERTSON
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