484
FXUS63 KJKL 221753
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
153 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, MILD DAYS, AND CHILLY
NIGHTS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO WEEK.
- LIGHT, PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT IN VALLEYS AWAY FROM LAKES, RIVERS, AND LARGER CREEKS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TENTACLES OF FOG EXPANDING THROUGH THE
DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, SKIES ARE CLEAR AND STARLIT, AND TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE COOLEST VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 40S ON THERMAL
BELT RIDGES. A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS REMAINS CENTERED NEAR DULUTH, MN. LOOKING ALOFT, A 500 HPA
RIDGE STRETCHES FROM TEXAS NORTHWARD TO ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO
BORDER. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL PERTURBATION IS NOTED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THAT RIDGE.
LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY, FOLLOWED BY
RENEWED WEAK LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY CAA. THAT FEED OF COOLER AIR
WILL EASE ON FRIDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD AGAIN AND THE ATTENDANT SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TO THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, EVENTUALLY CAUSING LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO VEER
MORE EASTERLY. WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE TONIGHT,
THE ONLY CONCERN OF NOTE WILL BE PATCHY FROST THAT COULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN THE PRIOR NIGHT. OTHERWISE, JUST ANTICIPATE ROUTINE
FOG FORMATION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE TYPICALLY
FAVORED VALLEY LOCALES.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, RIVER VALLEY FOG AND ANY FROST THIS MORNING WILL
BURN OFF AND GIVE WAY TO SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL AGAIN BE SEASONABLE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. CLEAR SKIES
FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS AND PATCHY
FROST, MAINLY IN THE OUTLYING COLDER HOLLOWS. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY
CHILLY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS TO
THE MID 40S ON THERMAL BELT RIDGES. LOOKING AHEAD TO FRIDAY, BRIGHT
SUN RETURNS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
A BLOCKY PATTERN WILL STILL HOLD AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, WITH AN EXPANSIVE AND AMPLIFIED MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE, TROUGHING
ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW INITIALLY LOCATED OVER CALIFORNIA
WILL HAVE LITTLE ABILITY TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHEN THIS DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH AND FINALLY BEGINS TO FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE, LOCAL CONDITIONS WILL VARY
LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS NEARBY.
THROUGH TUESDAY, WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. EACH AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SUNDAY DOES LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD, AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS EAST SOMEWHAT AND 500 MB HEIGHTS
PEAK IN ROUGHLY THE 90TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY. EVEN
SO, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD, PERHAPS PEAKING IN THE MID
70S AT MOST. TROUGHING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND
WILL PREVENT ANY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE, KEEPING
EASTERN KENTUCKY FIRMLY EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS, AND BY EXTENSION,
THE HIGHEST GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS. BY MONDAY THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
FLATTENING, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FALLING A DEGREE OR TWO.
ACCOMPANYING THESE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. SKIES SHOULD BE NEARLY CLEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
JUST A SLIGHT UPTICK IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY. WITH SUCH DRY AIR JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE, NBM DEWPOINTS ARE ALMOST CERTAINLY OVERDONE,
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS, DEWPOINTS WERE NUDGED
DOWN INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S, MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT, THIS DRY AIR, IN ADDITION TO CLEAR SKIES AND
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT, SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR RIDGE VALLEY SPLITS AS
VALLEYS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND RIDGETOP LOWS REMAIN IN THE
LOW 40S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BY TUESDAY, FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE
FINALLY BREAKS DOWN AND TROUGHING BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MIDWEST,
WITH A WEAK AND POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG TOWARD
OUR AREA SOMEWHAT, BUT WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, IT SHOULD
LOSE STEAM AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME, AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO MAKE IT TO THE COMMONWEALTH. THUS, THE FORECAST STILL REMAINS
DRY, WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AND HIGHS COOLING BY A DEGREE OR TWO.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT TAF SITES. FOG
IS POSSIBLE IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, THOUGH
MAY BE A BIT MORE CONFINED TO THE DEEPER AND MORE SHELTERED AREAS
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT, PERHAPS KEEPING JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP MORE
EXPOSED VALLEYS FROM SEEING AS MUCH FOG AS TYPICAL.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO
A MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION BEHIND TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT
PASSAGE, BUT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...CMC
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