876
FXUS63 KJKL 230720
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
320 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, MILD DAYS, AND CHILLY
NIGHTS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
- LIGHT, PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHTS IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AWAY FROM LAKES, RIVERS,
AND LARGER CREEKS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS STUCK ON REPEAT THIS MORNING. FOG IS ONCE
AGAIN THREADING ITS WAY THROUGH THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY UNDER CLEAR, STARLIT SKIES. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS UP TO AROUND 50F ON THERMAL BELT
RIDGES. A SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE WEATHER ACROSS
NEARLY ALL OF THE EASTERN CONUS, THOUGH ITS ACTUAL ~1029 MB CENTER
IS SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY. ALOFT, A ROBUST 500 HPA RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM TEXAS NORTHWARD TO ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO
BORDER.
THE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WILL BE LIMITED. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND SINK SOUTHWARD, WITH ITS ~1035 MB CENTER
SITUATED NEAR/OVER NEW JERSEY BY SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE,
HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE PARENT 500
HPA RIDGE BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY TILTED FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX
NORTHEASTWARD TO OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING
MORE EASTERLY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SUBSTANTIVE ADVECTION DURING THE
SHORT TERM, AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. MOST NOTABLY, WHILE THERE SHOULD
BE SUBSTANTIAL PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS EARLY THIS
MORNING, ANY FROST SHOULD BE MORE SPARSE AND CONFINED TO THE
COLDEST HOLLOWS TONIGHT AS THE AIR MASS MODERATES A LITTLE.
OTHERWISE, FOG WILL FORM IN MANY OF THE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY SPOTS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING, WITH A
SIMILAR PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, RIVER VALLEY FOG AND ANY LIGHT FROST THIS MORNING
WILL BURN OFF AND GIVE WAY TO SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL AGAIN BE
SEASONABLE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. CLEAR
SKIES FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS AND
PATCHY FROST, MAINLY IN THE OUTLYING COLDER HOLLOWS. IT WILL BE
SEASONABLY CHILLY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE COLDEST
HOLLOWS TO THE MID 40S ON THERMAL BELT RIDGES. LOOKING AHEAD TO
SATURDAY, BRIGHT SUN RETURNS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MODERATING VERY
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
A BLOCKY PATTERN WILL STILL HOLD AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, WITH AN EXPANSIVE AND AMPLIFIED MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE, TROUGHING
ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW INITIALLY LOCATED OVER CALIFORNIA
WILL HAVE LITTLE ABILITY TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHEN THIS DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH AND FINALLY BEGINS TO FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE, LOCAL CONDITIONS WILL VARY
LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS NEARBY.
THROUGH TUESDAY, WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. EACH AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SUNDAY DOES LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD, AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS EAST SOMEWHAT AND 500 MB HEIGHTS
PEAK IN ROUGHLY THE 90TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY. EVEN
SO, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD, PERHAPS PEAKING IN THE MID
70S AT MOST. TROUGHING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND
WILL PREVENT ANY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE, KEEPING
EASTERN KENTUCKY FIRMLY EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS, AND BY EXTENSION,
THE HIGHEST GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS. BY MONDAY THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
FLATTENING, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FALLING A DEGREE OR TWO.
ACCOMPANYING THESE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. SKIES SHOULD BE NEARLY CLEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
JUST A SLIGHT UPTICK IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY. WITH SUCH DRY AIR JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE, NBM DEWPOINTS ARE ALMOST CERTAINLY OVERDONE,
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS, DEWPOINTS WERE NUDGED
DOWN INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S, MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT, THIS DRY AIR, IN ADDITION TO CLEAR SKIES AND
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT, SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR RIDGE VALLEY SPLITS AS
VALLEYS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND RIDGETOP LOWS REMAIN IN THE
LOW 40S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BY TUESDAY, FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE
FINALLY BREAKS DOWN AND TROUGHING BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MIDWEST,
WITH A WEAK AND POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG TOWARD
OUR AREA SOMEWHAT, BUT WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, IT SHOULD
LOSE STEAM AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME, AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO MAKE IT TO THE COMMONWEALTH. THUS, THE FORECAST STILL REMAINS
DRY, WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AND HIGHS COOLING BY A DEGREE OR TWO.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
FOG WILL BRING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS
THROUGH MID-MORNING, MAINLY NEAR LAKES, RIVERS, AND LARGE
STREAMS. KSYM WAS AFFECTED BY MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND DAWN FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THE TAF HAS
ALLOWED FOR A POTENTIAL FOR THIS AGAIN. ALTHOUGH KSME DROPPED TO
IFR OR WORSE FOR ABOUT AN HOUR YESTERDAY MORNING, CONFIDENCE IN A
REPEAT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...GEERTSON/HAL
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