972
FXUS63 KJKL 231757
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
157 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH CLEAR SKIES, MILD
DAYS, AND CHILLY NIGHTS EXPECTED.
- LIGHT, PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHTS IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AWAY FROM LAKES, RIVERS,
AND LARGER CREEKS. FOG IS MORE LIKELY NEAR THOSE BODIES OF WATER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
FOG LINGERS IN PORTIONS OF THE KENTUCKY, BIG SANDY, AND CUMBERLAND
RIVER BASINS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THIS FOG CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY LIFT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS WE
PROGRESS FURTHER INTO THE MORNING. OTHERWISE, SUNNY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS STUCK ON REPEAT THIS MORNING. FOG IS ONCE
AGAIN THREADING ITS WAY THROUGH THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY UNDER CLEAR, STARLIT SKIES. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS UP TO AROUND 50F ON THERMAL BELT
RIDGES. A SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE WEATHER ACROSS
NEARLY ALL OF THE EASTERN CONUS, THOUGH ITS ACTUAL ~1029 MB CENTER
IS SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY. ALOFT, A ROBUST 500 HPA RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM TEXAS NORTHWARD TO ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO
BORDER.
THE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WILL BE LIMITED. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND SINK SOUTHWARD, WITH ITS ~1035 MB CENTER
SITUATED NEAR/OVER NEW JERSEY BY SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE,
HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE PARENT 500
HPA RIDGE BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY TILTED FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX
NORTHEASTWARD TO OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING
MORE EASTERLY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SUBSTANTIVE ADVECTION DURING THE
SHORT TERM, AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. MOST NOTABLY, WHILE THERE SHOULD
BE SUBSTANTIAL PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS EARLY THIS
MORNING, ANY FROST SHOULD BE MORE SPARSE AND CONFINED TO THE
COLDEST HOLLOWS TONIGHT AS THE AIR MASS MODERATES A LITTLE.
OTHERWISE, FOG WILL FORM IN MANY OF THE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY SPOTS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING, WITH A
SIMILAR PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, RIVER VALLEY FOG AND ANY LIGHT FROST THIS MORNING
WILL BURN OFF AND GIVE WAY TO SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL AGAIN BE
SEASONABLE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. CLEAR
SKIES FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS AND
PATCHY FROST, MAINLY IN THE OUTLYING COLDER HOLLOWS. IT WILL BE
SEASONABLY CHILLY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE COLDEST
HOLLOWS TO THE MID 40S ON THERMAL BELT RIDGES. LOOKING AHEAD TO
SATURDAY, BRIGHT SUN RETURNS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MODERATING VERY
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND GET SHUNTED
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, OPENING EASTERN KENTUCKY TO MORE
WESTERLY AND/OR WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK, ALLOWING FOR SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY, THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL, IF NOT CHILLY, NIGHTS, WITH VALLEY FOG
THROUGH THE RIVER VALLEYS AND PATCHY FROST (AT LEAST FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND PERHAPS MONDAY NIGHT) IN SOME SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS REMOVED FROM LARGER BODIES OF WATER. THE ONE POTENTIAL
EXCEPTION IS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (I.E., TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY) WHEN MOST MODELS DEPICT A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE AREA, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. SUCH A SCENARIO
WOULD LIKELY BRING WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS AND REDUCE RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLITS IN TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WERE OCCURRING AT ISSUANCE
TIME, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN
10KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, FOG SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP
AND AFFECT SEVERAL VALLEY LOCATIONS ALONG AREA RIVERS, LARGER
CREEKS, AND LAKES BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 14Z. IN THOSE LOCATIONS,
REDUCTIONS TO IFR OR WORSE ARE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME, THE TAF
SITES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...JP
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