343
FXUS63 KJKL 241746 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
146 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
MILD DAYS, AND CHILLY NIGHTS EXPECTED.
- LIGHT, PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHTS IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AWAY FROM LAKES, RIVERS,
AND LARGER CREEKS. FOG IS MORE LIKELY NEAR THOSE BODIES OF
WATER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TRANQUIL AUTUMN-TIME WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN MARKEDLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE POSITIONING AND AMPLITUDE OF A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER
LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THAT FEATURE IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN AND
PROPAGATE EAST IN THE COMING DAYS, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS EVOLUTION FAVORS
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. THE FORMER WILL WORK TO REINFORCE THE DRY, CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE CWA, AND THE LATTER WILL SUSTAIN A
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NE CONUS. ALTOGETHER, THESE
SYNOPTICS FAVOR EFFICIENT DIURNAL RADIATION/MIXING PROCESSES AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THEREFORE, THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECASTS FOR
BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW ARE ~ALMOST~ AN EXACT COPY-PASTE OF THE
CONDITIONS THAT THE FORECAST AREA HAS EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE AREA'S MAIN STEM RIVER VALLEYS ARE LIKELY TO WAKE UP TO FOG THIS
MORNING, AND PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE TRADITIONALLY
COLDER HOLLOWS. AS SOLAR INSOLATION AND DIURNAL MIXING INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE/DEPTH BY MID-MORNING, THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND GIVE
WAY TO AMPLE SUNSHINE. LATER IN THE DAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INTRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS-TYPE
CLOUDS TO THE SKIES. THOSE CLOUDS WEREN'T IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS'
FORECAST, BUT THEY CLOUDS WON'T BE THICK ENOUGH TO MUTE THE DIURNAL
HEATING CURVE OR PRODUCE ANY MEANINGFUL SURFACE-LEVEL IMPACTS. AFTER
A SEASONABLY CHILLY START TO THE DAY (AM VALLEY LOWS IN THE 30S),
TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S BY MIDDAY BEFORE
PEAKING IN THE LOWER 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN
FROM ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR FANTASTIC "FEELS-LIKE"
TEMPERATURES. OBSERVED DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN UNDERCUTTING THEIR
MODELED VALUES ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, AND THAT TREND
WILL LIKELY CARRY OVER INTO TOMORROW.
CURRENT FORECAST EXPECTATIONS CALL FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON'S
DEWPOINTS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
FOG AFTER DARK IN MOST OF THE AREA'S VALLEYS, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISING IF SOME AREAS MIX DOWN INTO THE MID 30S. SHOULD THAT
COME TO FRUITION AFTER A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER, FROST COULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN WHAT IT CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.
MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THESE TYPES OF MESOSCALE PROCESSES IN OUR
AREA'S INTRICATE TERRAIN, AND THAT STRUGGLE CASCADES INTO THE
BASELINE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. EXTENSIVE TERRAIN-BASED
EDITS WERE MADE TO TOMORROW NIGHT'S MINT GRID, AS PATTERN
RECOGNITION SUGGESTS THAT THERE COULD BE A 10 TO 15 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AREA'S RIDGETOP AND VALLEY LOWS ON SUNDAY
MORNING. THE LOWER END OF THIS FORECAST ENVELOPE IS CONTINGENT UPON
THE AFOREMENTIONED DEWPOINT TRENDS, BUT ONCE THE SUN SETS TOMORROW
NIGHT, COLDER AIR WILL POOL INTO THE VALLEYS. LOWS WERE ACCORDINGLY
BUMPED DOWN TOWARDS THE MID 30S IN THE AREA'S KNOWN SHELTERED/SHADED
COOL SPOTS AND THEN THE MID/UPPER 30S ALONG THE BROADER MAIN STEM
RIVER VALLEYS. ON THE FLIP SIDE OF THE AREA'S ELEVATION SPECTRUM,
RIDGETOP LOCALES WILL SIT ATOP THE NOCTURNAL RADIATION INVERSION AND
STRUGGLE TO COOL DOWN AS MUCH. THERE, LOWS WERE RAISED INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S, WHICH, IN TURN, MAKES THEM MUCH LESS LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE FOG/FROST CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY'S FORECAST REPEATS MUCH OF THE ABOVE FORECAST THINKING AND
ANALYSIS, EXCEPT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
CWA BY THEN. THE RELATED MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES SUGGEST THAT SUNDAY'S
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN SATURDAY'S, AND
THE FORECAST GRIDS REFLECT THAT. TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
REACH THE MID 70S ON SUNDAY THAN THEY ARE ON SATURDAY, WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FORECAST YET AGAIN. WHILE THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES RANK
JUST ABOVE THE AREA'S CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES, IT WON'T NECESSARILY
FEEL "HOT" OUTSIDE. THANKS TO THE CONTINUED DOMINANCE OF A DRY,
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS, IT SHOULD STILL FEEL SEASONABLY APPROPRIATE
OUTSIDE. SO, WE ENCOURAGE READERS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS PLEASANT
WEEKEND FORECAST AND ENJOY ANY PLANNED OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITHIN THE
BEAUTIFUL FALL FOLIAGE EMERGING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE STUBBORN 500 HPA
RIDGE OF RECENT DAYS STILL ANCHORED OVER THE REGION, ITS
POSITIVELY-TILTED AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX NORTHEASTWARD
TO OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. SUBSIDENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (WITH
AN ~1032 MB CENTER OVER THE DELMARVA) FROM THE MID/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TO OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE
MARITIME PROVINCES. WELL TO OUR NORTH, A TROUGH IS PASSING OVER
THE HUDSON BAY REGION, SUPPORTING AN ~985 MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN TIP OF QUEBEC. THE LOW'S COLD FRONT TRAILS SOUTH ACROSS
THE PROVINCE TO NEAR OTTAWA AND THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO ANOTHER WEAKER LOW ALONG THE LEE
OF THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO ROCKIES. THAT SECOND SURFACE LOW IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF MEAN 500 HPA
TROUGHING FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE ROCKIES, ANCHORED BY A
VERTICALLY STACKED PARENT LOW JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST.
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN APPRECIABLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY STALLS
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. MEANWHILE, THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE LOW EJECT NORTHEASTWARD, PULLING THE BOUNDARY BACK TO THE
NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. THAT SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS THE LINGERING RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL FLATTEN AND FILL ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A SMALL MINORITY OF THE 24/00Z LREF MEMBERS MAINTAIN A
STRONG ENOUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO SENSIBLY IMPACT THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. HOWEVER, A VAST MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN RESILIENT
RIDGING AS THE 500 HPA AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH, WHICH
WOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN PERIODS OF PASSING MID AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVORING
500 HPA TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY GROWS ON FRIDAY,
THOUGH ~61/100 LREF MEMBERS STILL CLUSTER TOWARDS LINGERING
RIDGING. MATERIALLY, THIS SUGGESTS THAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS
STILL FAVORED TO REMAIN INTACT AND KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD, BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DOES DECREASE NOTICEABLY BY FRIDAY. THERE ARE STILL NO
RAIN CHANCES IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
ASIDE FROM INCREASED CLOUD COVER MIDWEEK, THE PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FAVOR FAIR WEATHER WITH SUNNY, MILD DAYS, AND COOL,
CLEAR NIGHTS. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE COLDER SHELTERED
HOLLOWS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A
NIGHTLY PHENOMENON FOR THE TYPICAL FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S WHILE SHARP RIDGE-VALLEY SPLITS DEVELOP EACH NIGHT, WITH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS
TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON THERMAL BELT RIDGES. THE EXCEPTION
COULD BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WHEN MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER COULD KEEP NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES A TAD MILDER.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS WAS OBSERVED AT ISSUANCE TIME. SFC AND UPPER
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND RESULT IN
MAINLY VFR, WITH A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING SEVERAL VALLEY
LOCATIONS BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 14Z. THIS WOULD BRING MVFR AND IFR
IF NOT LOCALLY LOWER REDUCTIONS AT TIMES TO THOSE AREAS DURING
THAT TIMEFRAME. PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST THE TAF SITES NOT BEING
AFFECTED. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE INCLUDING CONSSHORT AND LAMP
SUGGEST KSYM COULD BE AFFECTED BY MVFR IF NOT BRIEFLY LOWER
REDUCTIONS NEAR 12Z AS NEARBY VALLEY FOG COULD LIFT INTO THE AREA.
WITH THAT IN MIND, OPTED TO TO INCLUDE AT TEMPO GROUP THERE WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. WHAT FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL
LIFT AND DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MARCUS
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...JP
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