142
FXUS63 KJKL 241815
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
215 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
MILD DAYS, AND CHILLY NIGHTS EXPECTED.
- LIGHT, PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHTS IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AWAY FROM LAKES, RIVERS,
AND LARGER CREEKS. FOG IS MORE LIKELY NEAR THOSE BODIES OF
WATER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TRANQUIL AUTUMN-TIME WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN MARKEDLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE POSITIONING AND AMPLITUDE OF A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER
LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THAT FEATURE IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN AND
PROPAGATE EAST IN THE COMING DAYS, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS EVOLUTION FAVORS
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. THE FORMER WILL WORK TO REINFORCE THE DRY, CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE CWA, AND THE LATTER WILL SUSTAIN A
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NE CONUS. ALTOGETHER, THESE
SYNOPTICS FAVOR EFFICIENT DIURNAL RADIATION/MIXING PROCESSES AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THEREFORE, THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECASTS FOR
BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW ARE ~ALMOST~ AN EXACT COPY-PASTE OF THE
CONDITIONS THAT THE FORECAST AREA HAS EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE AREA'S MAIN STEM RIVER VALLEYS ARE LIKELY TO WAKE UP TO FOG THIS
MORNING, AND PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE TRADITIONALLY
COLDER HOLLOWS. AS SOLAR INSOLATION AND DIURNAL MIXING INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE/DEPTH BY MID-MORNING, THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND GIVE
WAY TO AMPLE SUNSHINE. LATER IN THE DAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INTRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS-TYPE
CLOUDS TO THE SKIES. THOSE CLOUDS WEREN'T IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS'
FORECAST, BUT THEY CLOUDS WON'T BE THICK ENOUGH TO MUTE THE DIURNAL
HEATING CURVE OR PRODUCE ANY MEANINGFUL SURFACE-LEVEL IMPACTS. AFTER
A SEASONABLY CHILLY START TO THE DAY (AM VALLEY LOWS IN THE 30S),
TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S BY MIDDAY BEFORE
PEAKING IN THE LOWER 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN
FROM ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR FANTASTIC "FEELS-LIKE"
TEMPERATURES. OBSERVED DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN UNDERCUTTING THEIR
MODELED VALUES ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, AND THAT TREND
WILL LIKELY CARRY OVER INTO TOMORROW.
CURRENT FORECAST EXPECTATIONS CALL FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON'S
DEWPOINTS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
FOG AFTER DARK IN MOST OF THE AREA'S VALLEYS, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISING IF SOME AREAS MIX DOWN INTO THE MID 30S. SHOULD THAT
COME TO FRUITION AFTER A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER, FROST COULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN WHAT IT CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.
MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THESE TYPES OF MESOSCALE PROCESSES IN OUR
AREA'S INTRICATE TERRAIN, AND THAT STRUGGLE CASCADES INTO THE
BASELINE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. EXTENSIVE TERRAIN-BASED
EDITS WERE MADE TO TOMORROW NIGHT'S MINT GRID, AS PATTERN
RECOGNITION SUGGESTS THAT THERE COULD BE A 10 TO 15 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AREA'S RIDGETOP AND VALLEY LOWS ON SUNDAY
MORNING. THE LOWER END OF THIS FORECAST ENVELOPE IS CONTINGENT UPON
THE AFOREMENTIONED DEWPOINT TRENDS, BUT ONCE THE SUN SETS TOMORROW
NIGHT, COLDER AIR WILL POOL INTO THE VALLEYS. LOWS WERE ACCORDINGLY
BUMPED DOWN TOWARDS THE MID 30S IN THE AREA'S KNOWN SHELTERED/SHADED
COOL SPOTS AND THEN THE MID/UPPER 30S ALONG THE BROADER MAIN STEM
RIVER VALLEYS. ON THE FLIP SIDE OF THE AREA'S ELEVATION SPECTRUM,
RIDGETOP LOCALES WILL SIT ATOP THE NOCTURNAL RADIATION INVERSION AND
STRUGGLE TO COOL DOWN AS MUCH. THERE, LOWS WERE RAISED INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S, WHICH, IN TURN, MAKES THEM MUCH LESS LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE FOG/FROST CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY'S FORECAST REPEATS MUCH OF THE ABOVE FORECAST THINKING AND
ANALYSIS, EXCEPT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
CWA BY THEN. THE RELATED MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES SUGGEST THAT SUNDAY'S
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN SATURDAY'S, AND
THE FORECAST GRIDS REFLECT THAT. TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
REACH THE MID 70S ON SUNDAY THAN THEY ARE ON SATURDAY, WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FORECAST YET AGAIN. WHILE THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES RANK
JUST ABOVE THE AREA'S CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES, IT WON'T NECESSARILY
FEEL "HOT" OUTSIDE. THANKS TO THE CONTINUED DOMINANCE OF A DRY,
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS, IT SHOULD STILL FEEL SEASONABLY APPROPRIATE
OUTSIDE. SO, WE ENCOURAGE READERS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS PLEASANT
WEEKEND FORECAST AND ENJOY ANY PLANNED OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITHIN THE
BEAUTIFUL FALL FOLIAGE EMERGING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, A STUBBORN 500 MB RIDGE
WILL STILL BE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A WELL
DEFINED NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, JUST WEST OF THIS RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL CORRESPOND TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER,
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
AS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE, IT WILL WORK TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT, AND A SECOND
MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO WORK TO REINFORCE TROUGHING OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY, THESE
IMPULSES WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PREVIOUSLY
STALLED OVER OHIO, WILL ALSO LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS A WARM FRONT, COMPLETELY FAILING TO AFFECT OUR LOCAL
WEATHER. INSTEAD, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL, EXTREMELY PLEASANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE, BUT STILL ONLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S,
ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE SUNSHINE. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION COULD BE
WEDNESDAY, WHEN A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OR TWO TO PASS OVER THE AREA.
EVEN SO, IN THE ABSENCE OF BETTER MOISTURE, NO RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. INSTEAD, THE MAIN IMPACT TO THE FORECAST WOULD BE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MARGINALLY WARMER LOWS
POSSIBLE SHOULD CLOUD COVER PERSIST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGH
PRESSURE AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR RIDGE VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLITS TO DEVELOP, WITH LOWS IN THE VALLEYS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
PERIOD, WHILE RIDGES REMAIN MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. EXPECT
TYPICAL FOG FORMATION TO ACCOMPANY THESE COOL TEMPERATURES IN
MAINSTEM RIVER VALLEYS. PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE
COOLEST AND MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING; HOWEVER,
THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON DEWPOINTS GOING INTO THE NIGHT, WHICH
WILL INFLUENCE THE MAGNITUDE OF COOLING IN THESE LOCATIONS. RAW
NBM DEWPOINTS ARE ALMOST CERTAINLY TOO MOIST, AN OBSERVATION
CORROBORATED BY ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. LREF MEAN DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S RATHER THAN THE NBM'S LOW 50S, AND GIVEN THE
DEPICTED DRY LAYER IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOUNDINGS, IN ADDITION
TO A LACK OF TRULY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION, THESE 40S
DEWPOINTS SEEM REASONABLE. EVEN SO, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SHOULD
DEWPOINTS BE DRIER THAN FORECAST, MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING WOULD
BE POSSIBLE, INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST IN HOLLOWS
WITHOUT A BODY OF WATER. REGARDLESS, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DO TREND
WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHICH SHOULD KEEP FROST RISK LOWER
LATER IN THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH VALLEYS WILL STILL BE COOLER THAN
RIDGETOPS.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, MODEL SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH RESPECT TO WHETHER A RIDGING OR TROUGHING PATTERN IS FAVORED
LOCALLY. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS CLEAR THAT RAIN IS UNLIKELY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH THE MAJORITY OF LREF MEMBERS FAVORING NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. IN SHORT,
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN PLEASANT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS WAS OBSERVED AT ISSUANCE TIME. SFC AND UPPER
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND RESULT IN
MAINLY VFR, WITH A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING SEVERAL VALLEY
LOCATIONS BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 14Z. THIS WOULD BRING MVFR AND IFR
IF NOT LOCALLY LOWER REDUCTIONS AT TIMES TO THOSE AREAS DURING
THAT TIMEFRAME. PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST THE TAF SITES NOT BEING
AFFECTED. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE INCLUDING CONSSHORT AND LAMP
SUGGEST KSYM COULD BE AFFECTED BY MVFR IF NOT BRIEFLY LOWER
REDUCTIONS NEAR 12Z AS NEARBY VALLEY FOG COULD LIFT INTO THE AREA.
WITH THAT IN MIND, OPTED TO TO INCLUDE AT TEMPO GROUP THERE WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. WHAT FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL
LIFT AND DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MARCUS
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...JP
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