087
FXUS63 KJKL 251850
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
250 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES, MILD DAYS, AND CHILLY NIGHTS
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
- LIGHT, PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS AWAY FROM THE AREA'S LAKES, RIVERS, AND LARGER
CREEKS. FOG IS MORE LIKELY NEAR THOSE BODIES OF WATER.
- THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN ENTER THE FORECAST AS THE CALENDAR
CHANGES TO NOVEMBER, SO INTERESTS WITH OUTDOOR HALLOWEEN PLANS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR FOR FORECAST UPDATES THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, A 500 MB TROUGH/UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. WITH EASTERN
KY TO THE EAST OF THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE, NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING
ALOFT. MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH, AN UPPER LOW WAS MOVING FROM
HUDSON BAY INTO QUEBEC WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXTENDED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHWEST,
AN UPPER LOW WAS NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE,
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND EXTENDED INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THE OH VALLEY AND
INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
ROCKIES. SKIES WERE SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 PM WERE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE AXIS OF UPPER TROUGHING INITIALLY NEAR AND
TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST, WHILE THE AXIS OF THE 500 MB RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS EASTERN KY.
500 MB HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN KY PEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
THOUGH THE RIDGE HAS ALREADY STARTED TO FLATTEN. THIS FLATTENING
WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO QUEBEC TO THE EAST OF
HUDSON BAY AND MERGES WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVES TO
CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CANADA INTO THE
NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD NEAR
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN CO AND THEN DROP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC AND ALSO SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
APPROACHING THE OH VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY. THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION
OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BE SLOWED AND EVENTUALLY STALLED AS THE UPPER
LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WEAKENS TO AN
OPEN WAVE AS IT REACHES THE PLAINS AND INTERACTS WITH AND RESULTS IN
A SFC LOW DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THAT SFC LOW
TRACKS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE,
THE 500 MB RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED IN THE GULF TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE PERIOD ENDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM EVEN THOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTHEAST
AND THERE WILL BE A TREND OF HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS EASTERN KY. THE
UPPER FLOW WILL ALSO BECOME WESTERLY TONIGHT AND REMAIN WEST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME, ESPECIALLY FROM MIDDAY MONDAY
ONWARD. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE DOWNWARD FROM NBM DETERMINISTIC FOR
DEWPOINTS, ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK MIXING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS WERE ADDED TO MIN T GRIDS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUED PERSISTENCE OF LOWS REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40, WITH MID 30S FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS/SHELTERED VALLEYS
AWAY FROM LARGER BODIES OF WATER. FOR BOTH NIGHTS, FOG DEVELOPMENT
ALONG RIVERS, LARGER CREEKS, AND LAKES IS ANTICIPATED BOTH NIGHTS,
WITH THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS AWAY FROM THESE BODIES OF WATER
POTENTIALLY EXPERIENCING A LIGHT FROST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS MONDAY EVENING WITH A FLATTENING 500
HPA RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH AND BEYOND TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, THEN NORTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL CANADA. AT THE SURFACE, THE REMNANT OF A FORMER HIGH
WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, SEPARATED FROM A
STRONGER ~1034 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY A COLD
FRONT. THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW OVER
THE LABRADOR SEA, PASSING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF THE GREAT
LAKES TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER NEBRASKA. ALOFT, THE NEBRASKAN LOW
IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF A
BROADER PARENT TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
A SECOND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE SECOND AND EJECT
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, TAKING THE
SURFACE LOW WITH THEM AND PULLING THE STALLED FRONT BACK NORTH OF
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THOSE FEATURES WILL BE TO
SIGNIFICANTLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE RESIDING OVER THE COMMONWEALTH. AN
AREA OF ENERGY LIKELY EJECTS NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY CROSSES
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING MID-AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE (LIKELY
MANIFESTING AS JUST AN UPTICK IN CLOUD COVER AT MOST). BEHIND THAT
DISTURBANCE, THE LEFTOVER BROAD RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY STATE OR STRENGTHEN SLIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS SOUTHEAST TO OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH ~12Z FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER, A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE (PWATS SURGE BACK
ABOVE AN INCH AND LIKELY EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMO FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR). THE RETURN OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL MANIFEST AS THICKENING CLOUD COVER HERALDING RISING RAIN
CHANCES LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY--POTENTIALLY MORE OF A TRICK
RATHER THAN A TREAT GIVEN THE DELIGHTFUL WEATHER OF LATE.
OUTSIDE OF THE PERIODS OF THICKER CLOUD COVER MENTIONED, DRY AIR
WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SUBSTANTIAL ~10F
RIDGE-VALLEY SPLITS EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH FOR ONE MORE NIGHT OF PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS
ON MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOPEFULLY PRECLUDE FURTHER PATCHY FROST. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR NIGHTTIME FOG FORMATION IN THE TYPICALLY
FAVORED VALLEY LOCALES.
THUS IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK OUTSIDE OF A PERIOD OF GREATER CLOUD
COVER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN HEADING THROUGH SATURDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE, WARMING FROM THE
MID 70S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY WEEK'S
END. MEANWHILE, NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR
50F ON MONDAY NIGHT TO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
GREATER CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD FAVOR MILDER TEMPERATURES
THAN WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED IN LATE OCTOBER. ANY RAIN
CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY AT THE EARLIEST.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE GULF INTO
THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PRIMARILY VFR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH ONLY A FEW
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN
LIGHT. VALLEY FOG FORMATION ALONG THE LARGER CREEKS, RIVERS, AND
LAKES IS ANTICIPATED AGAIN BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 14Z AND
REDUCTIONS TO IFR OR LOWER ARE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
INCLUDING LAMP AND CONSSHORT SUGGESTS KSME MAY BE AFFECTED WITH
SOME MVFR REDUCTIONS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR 12Z. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT AND KEPT THE
PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF FOG NOT AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WHAT FOG
THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY 15Z AND GIVE WAY TO
VFR TO END THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...JP
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