677
FXUS63 KJKL 261148
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
748 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES, MILD DAYS, AND CHILLY NIGHTS
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- LIGHT, PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE AREA'S MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS. FOG IS MORE LIKELY
NEAR THE AREA'S MAIN STEM RIVERS AND LAKES.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS THE CALENDAR CHANGES TO NOVEMBER THIS
WEEKEND, SO INTERESTS WITH OUTDOOR HALLOWEEN PLANS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE MONITORING FOR FORECAST UPDATES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
SEASONABLY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND DRY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, AS MODELS DEPICT ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
THE ANTECEDENT RIDGING PATTERN IN THE COMING DAYS. WHILE THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN FIRMLY UNDER ITS
INFLUENCE FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUITE DOES NOT RESOLVE MEANINGFUL HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE JKL CWA AS THIS PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS. RATHER, IT
COLLECTIVELY KEEPS 500MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS IN THE 586-588
DECAMETER RANGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
THESE ARE SIMILAR VALUES TO WHAT WAS RESOLVED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLIER THIS WEEKEND, AND THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN
JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. SUBSEQUENT MAP
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN THIS TIME FRAME. THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOWNSTREAM OF THAT AXIS WILL HELP SUSTAIN THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, WHICH, IN TURN,
WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE AND THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
COLUMN QUITE DRY. THUS, THE ONLY MEANINGFUL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
WEATHER SET UP OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL BE A GRADUAL SHIFT TOWARDS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
PERSISTENCE FORECASTING PREVAILS ACCORDINGLY, AND TODAY'S FORECAST
LOOKING LIKE IT WAS COPIED AND PASTED FROM YESTERDAY'S. THE PATTERN
CONTINUES TO FAVOR EFFICIENT DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING PROCESSES, AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY IS POISED TO WAKE UP TO THE TYPICAL AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG AND RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS THIS MORNING. THAT FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING AS MIXING TAKES ROOT AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY CLIMB OUT OF THE MID/UPPER 30S. MOST PLACES
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S BY MIDDAY, ALONG WITH A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN CIRRUS-TYPE CLOUDS HIGH IN THE SKY. THESE CLOUDS CAN BE
ATTRIBUTED TO THE SHIFT TOWARDS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, BUT THEY
SHOULDN'T BE THICK ENOUGH TO MUTE THE DIURNAL HEATING CURVE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S ONCE AGAIN. SUCH VALUES ARE
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR LATE OCTOBER IN EASTERN KENTUCKY,
BUT RECORD HIGHS ARE NOT IN DANGER. THE PREVIOUSLY-DISCUSSED MODELED
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT VALUES RANK ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE OF MODEL
CLIMATOLOGY. WHILE THIS PROVIDES YET ANOTHER PIECE OF EVIDENCE
FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS, IT ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THIS PATTERN IS
NOT PARTICULARLY ANOMALOUS.
THE TYPICAL AUTUMN-TIME CONDITIONS CARRY OVER INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF RIDGE-VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLITS AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. WHILE SOME PATCHY FROST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE MOST SHELTERED/SHADED HOLLOWS, THE
INCREASED DAYTIME WARMTH WILL FAVOR FOG OVER FROST IN MOST PLACES.
DEWPOINTS ARE UNLIKELY TO DROP MIX OUT TO VALUES LOWER THAN THE
UPPER 30S DURING PEAK DIURNAL MIXING, MAKING IT HARDER TO GET
TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST AFTER DARK. VALLEY LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THAT UPPER 30S RANGE TOMORROW NIGHT,
MAKING IT MORE LIKELY TO SEE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES THAT FAVOR FOG
OVER FROST. CONFIDENCE IN FOG FORMATION IS HIGHEST ALONG THE AREA'S
LARGER LAKES AND RIVERS, AND THE AREA'S RIDGETOP LOCALES ARE
UNLIKELY TO SEE EITHER OF THESE NOCTURNAL WEATHER PHENOMENA. THERE,
TEMPERATURES THERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S. TUESDAY'S
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OUTLINED IN THE ABOVE PARAGRAPH,
EXCEPT THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST HIGHS. THE
PREVIOUSLY-DESCRIBED SYNOPTICS WILL SUBTLY SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST
HEADED INTO TUESDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FLOW ALOFT TO
ADOPT A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION. THIS COULD YIELD
RELATIVELY THICKER CLOUD COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IT ALSO
CORRESPONDS WITH SUBTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THUS, THERE ARE
COMPETING FACTORS AT PLAY. THE DRY LOWER LEVELS MEAN THAT THOSE
CLOUDS ARE UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION, BUT IF THE THICKER
CLOUD COVERAGE IS ABLE TO INTERRUPT THE DIURNAL HEATING CURVE,
TUESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD UNDER-PERFORM THE BLENDED BASELINE
GUIDANCE USED TO POPULATE THE FORECAST GRIDS. LIKEWISE, IF THE
CLOUDS STICK AROUND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THEY COULD STIFLE FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF THERMAL DECOUPLING. ASIDE FROM
THESE MINOR NUANCES, TOMORROW'S FORECAST LOOKS MORE OF THE SAME OLD,
SAME OLD. EXPECT ABOVE-NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S (JUST MAYBE
THE LOWER 70S THIS TIME) AND LIGHT WINDS AMIDST SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, A 500 MB RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH TROUGHING OVER THE
WEST. INITIALLY, A SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE, WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING CLOSELY
BEHIND. BY TUESDAY EVENING, THESE WAVES WILL MERGE, AND THIS
ENERGY WILL WORK TO FULLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT, BUT THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHORT LIVED. WEAK RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK BEFORE A BETTER DEFINED DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND BRINGS ABOUT
THE AREA'S NEXT MEANINGFUL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.
OVERALL, THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE VERY UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PREVIOUSLY STALLED OVER OHIO
WILL ALSO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS TUESDAY NIGHT'S SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSES BY. THIS SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT EASTERN
KENTUCKY'S WEATHER ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. THIS
WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS AND BRING AN END TO
THE PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL THAT OUR AREA'S HOLLOWS HAVE
EXPERIENCED AS OF LATE. VALLEY FOG FORMATION IS STILL EXPECTED
NEAR THE AREA'S WATERWAYS THOUGH. OTHERWISE, NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER
IS EXPECTED... ONLY AMPLE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE BUT PLEASANT, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE 40S. LOWS WILL OCCUR IN ACCORDANCE
WITH OUR AREA'S TYPICAL RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS, WITH
RIDGETOPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND VALLEYS IN THE LOWER 30S.
A MORE NOTABLE PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS A
MORE WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE PUSHES ITS WAY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY,
WITH LREF MEAN PW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1" BY LATE
SATURDAY. AROUND THIS TIME, POPS BEGIN TO TICK UP. NONETHELESS,
THE VAST MAJORITY OF LREF MEMBERS CONTINUE TO KEEP HALLOWEEN
EVENING DRY, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN RAIN ONCE THE CALENDARS
SWITCH TO NOVEMBER AND THE CLOCKS FALL BACK ON SUNDAY MORNING.
LREF MEAN PWAT VALUES RISE FURTHER TOWARDS THE 1.2-1.3" RANGE BY
THEN. WHILE TRENDS RELATED TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS, THESE PWATS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. DETRIMENTAL HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS APPEAR
UNLIKELY, AND IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE DETERMINED BY TIMING. IF THE
RAIN BEGINS ON HALLOWEEN PROPER, IT COULD BE A TRICK... NOBODY
WANTS TO GET WET WHILE ENJOYING FALL FESTIVITIES! IF THE RAIN
HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT, IT WOULD BE A TREAT... A LIGHT
RAINFALL WOULD HELP MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER AND DROUGHT CONCERNS
HEADED INTO THE NEW MONTH! SO, STAY TUNED!
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
AS EXPECTED, RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING, AND THIS FOG IS PRODUCING LOCALIZED VSBY
REDUCTIONS AT THE LOWER-LYING TERMINALS. KSME HAS REACHED ITS
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE, AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS FOG IN ITS
IMMEDIATE PROXIMITY. WHILE OBS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT AT KSYM, IT
APPEARS THAT THE FOG HAS ALSO REACHED THAT TERMINAL ON SATELLITE.
SO, TEMPO GROUPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR FOG AT THESE TWO TERMINALS
THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, PERSISTENCE FORECASTING
PREVAILS, AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING IS STILL VALID.
ONCE THE FOG MIXES OUT BY MID-MORNING, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST
AREA-WIDE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THEY SHOULD NOT YIELD ANY IMPACTFUL
CEILINGS. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, WITH CALM CONDITIONS IN
THE VALLEYS AT NIGHT. VALLEY FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG
THE AREA'S LARGER RIVERS AND LAKES TONIGHT, AND THERE IS A SIGNAL
IN THE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR POTENTIAL VSBY REDUCTIONS AT
KSME, KSYM, AND KIOB. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO
EXPLICITLY INCLUDE TOMORROW MORNING'S FOG IN THE 12Z TAF PERIOD,
BUT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TODAY AND
TONIGHT AT THESE SITES.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MARCUS
LONG TERM...FAGAN/MARCUS
AVIATION...MARCUS
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