769
FXUS63 KJKL 262311
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
711 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES, MILD DAYS, AND CHILLY NIGHTS
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- LIGHT, PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE AREA'S MOST
SHELTERED VALLEYS. FOG IS MORE LIKELY NEAR THE AREA'S MAIN STEM
RIVERS AND LAKES.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS THE CALENDAR CHANGES TO NOVEMBER THIS
WEEKEND, SO INTERESTS WITH OUTDOOR HALLOWEEN PLANS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE MONITORING FOR FORECAST UPDATES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
AS OF MID AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS GRADUALLY MOVING TO
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST, WHILE A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS AND INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
FURTHER NORTH, AN UPPER LOW WAS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF CANADA
WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS SECTIONS OF QUEBEC AND
ONTARIO INTO INTO PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
FURTHER WEST, MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE CENTRAL CONUS WERE
MOVING AROUND THE RIDGING CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
MORE PRONOUNCED OF THESE EXTENDED FROM SD INTO THE PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WEST OF THAT, AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH ANOTHER
SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE ONTARIO AND MANITOBA BORDER. IN
BETWEEN, A FRONTAL ZONE PRECEDING THE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA EXTENDED INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST TO EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TO CENTRAL PLAINS TO A SFC WAVE ALONG THAT BOUNDARY LOCATED TO
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS THAT SECTION OF THE BOUNDARY INTERACTS
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS. LOCALLY,
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME WITH
TEMPERATURES HAVING CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH
3 PM EDT.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, THE TROUGHING IN CANADA IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST, WHILE
THE PERSISTENT RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
SHORTWAVE INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE RIDGING AND REACH
THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO ITS SOUTH TREKS FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NEARS THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. THE MORE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO PARTS OF
ONTARIO THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE ONE TO THE SOUTH NEARS
OR ENTERS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN CENTERED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THE
500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS EASTERN KY SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AND REMAIN NEAR THE 95TH TO 97TH PERCENTILE PER
THE 12Z HREF. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES/TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST RATHER
PERSISTENT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THE PERIOD. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NORTH
OF THE OH RIVER SHOULD DROP TO NEAR THE OH RIVER TONIGHT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST, THOUGH AS
THE SFC LOW FURTHER WEST ALONG IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY IT SHOULD RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
THIS BOUNDARY COULD DROP FURTHER SOUTH AT LEAST BRIEFLY ON TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY NEAR THE WV AND KY BORDER AREA AS THE SFC HIGH TO
THE NORTH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC STATES.
HOWEVER, AS THE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
CENTRAL CONUS AND ANOTHER SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO CANADA THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE TO WELL NORTHEAST
OF EASTERN KY.
UNDER SFC AND UPPER RIDGING, RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS ARE
FAVORED THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
DESPITE PASSING MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. VALLEY FOG, MAINLY ALONG
THE RIVERS AND LARGEST CREEKS AND AREA LAKES, SHOULD OCCUR BOTH
NIGHTS. THE COLDER OUTLYING AND SHELTERED VALLEYS SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 30S TONIGHT AND A FEW INSTANCES OF PATCHY FROST IN THOSE
ARES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY, AN ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, WHILE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING DOMINATES THE WESTERN
CONUS. ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR 585 DAM SIT
WITHIN THE 90TH TO 95TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE, HIGHLIGHTING THE
UNSEASONABLE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A PASSING WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID-AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ON WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE WAVE EXITS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S. WITH CALM WINDS, DRY
AIR, AND CLEAR SKIES, STRONG NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
SUPPORT PRONOUNCED RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SHELTERED VALLEYS SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S, WHILE
THERMAL BELT RIDGES HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S, NEAR 50F. SOME PATCHY
RIVER VALLEY FOG SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BROADENS AND EXPANDS
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, ALLOWING DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE TO
PEAK AND MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 1024 MB BY FRIDAY MORNING. DAYTIME WARMING
UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID-70S EACH DAY - ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE LATE-OCTOBER
NORMALS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS INTO MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE, STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY, KEEPING THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT STALLED WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS KEEPS EASTERN KENTUCKY FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR,
WHERE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUMP UNSEASONABLE MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE
90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE FROM NOVEMBER 1ST ONWARD, PEAKING
AROUND 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES ON SUNDAY.
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH
THIS RICH MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAKING ON SUNDAY AROUND 60%.
THE FRONT FINALLY EDGES CLOSER HEADING INTO MONDAY BEFORE PETERING
OUT, ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER DOWN TO AROUND 20% BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL HOLD IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S SATURDAY, THEN TRIM BACK A BIT
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND FORECAST REASONING.
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE AREA, BUT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VALLEY FOG
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE LARGER RIVERS, LARGEST CREEKS,
AND LAKES, AND LEAD TO REDUCTIONS TO MVFR TO IFR DURING THE 04Z
TO 12Z PERIOD, IF NOT LOCALLY LOWER REDUCTIONS NEAR 12Z. THIS FOG
COULD DRIFT INTO AND IMPACT A COUPLE OF THE TAF SITES, WITH
RECENT GUIDANCE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT ON KSME BEING IMPACTED WITH
REDUCTIONS NEAR 12Z. BASED ON THIS AND PERSISTENCE, OPTED TO
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP THERE WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SHOULD
RETURN AREAWIDE BY 15Z AS THE VALLEY FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATES.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC/JP
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